9 former prospects facing make-or-break year

Not every top prospect can be Fernando Tatis Jr. or Wander Franco. Many young players take time to find their footing in the Majors.

That said, there comes a point when every young player needs to start turning promise into production. For the nine former prospects below, 2022 is that time. All of these players were once the No. 1 prospect in their organizations, according to MLB Pipeline, but they have yet to live up to their potential in the Majors.

Jo Adell, OF, Angels
Adell earned high scouting grades for his power and speed as a prospect, but he looked overmatched in a 38-game cameo during the 2020 season, posting a .478 OPS with a strikeout rate north of 40%. Although Angels veteran outfielders Mike Trout, Dexter Fowler and Justin Upton played a combined 132 games last season, the club refrained from calling up Adell until August. While Adell’s numbers over 35 games with the Halos were not terribly impressive, he did make some progress by trimming his strikeout rate to 22.9%. The team is counting on the 22-year-old, along with 24-year-old outfielder Brandon Marsh, to break out in 2022.

Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners
With only 93 games of big league experience under his belt, nobody should be writing off the 22-year-old Kelenic at this point. But after hitting .181/.265/.350 (72 OPS+) and producing -1.8 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) in his rookie season, the 2018 No. 6 overall Draft pick has a lot riding on 2022. On the plus side, Kelenic did record an .854 OPS last September/October, but if he’s unable to build on that in his sophomore season and continues to struggle like he did for much of his rookie year, the Mariners may start to rethink whether he can be a cornerstone of their franchise. Kelenic is already fighting against history: Jimmie Wilson, Ed Kranepool, Ken Harrelson, Aramis Ramirez and Cristian Guzman are the only position players who went on to make an AL or NL All-Star team after recording -1.5 bWAR or worse as a rookie.

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Gavin Lux, 2B/SS/OF, Dodgers
The Dodgers reportedly balked at making Lux available when they were discussing trades for Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts after the 2019 season, but the youngster has been unable to carve out a consistent starting role on a deep club. Since he debuted in 2019, Lux has hit .233 with 12 homers and a .682 OPS (83 OPS+) over 532 plate appearances. After shortstop Corey Seager departed as a free agent, the door is open for the 24-year-old Lux to get more playing time in 2022, but he’ll have to earn it.

Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Marlins
Once considered a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, Luzardo took a significant step backward in 2021. The left-hander’s walk rate rose by four percentage points while his ground-ball rate dropped by 8.5 points, and opponents hit .343 with a .641 slugging percentage against his four-seamer and sinker. The A’s traded Luzardo for Starling Marte in July, sending him to a Marlins organization that is rich with promising young pitchers, so he’s not ensured a rotation spot entering 2022.

Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays
A 6-foot-6 righty armed with a triple-digit fastball, Pearson debuted to much fanfare on July 29, 2020, and fired five scoreless innings with five K’s against the Nationals. But after going down with a flexor strain in his right elbow four starts into his big league career, Pearson dealt with multiple injuries in 2021, including a shoulder impingement and a nagging core muscle issue that led to sports hernia surgery last November. Now 25, Pearson will carry a career 5.18 ERA and a 16.4% walk rate into 2022. He’ll not only need to show that he can stay healthy but also that he can consistently throw strikes.

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Victor Robles, OF, Nationals
It seems like Robles has been around forever because he’s played in parts of five seasons, but he was MLB’s No. 4 overall prospect as recently as 2019 and put up a 4.4 bWAR rookie season for a Nationals club that went on to win the World Series. He followed that up by producing -0.4 bWAR and a .209/.304/.302 slash line over the past two seasons and spent the final month of 2021 playing for Triple-A Rochester. He’s just 24 years old, so we could see him get another chance to establish himself as Washington’s starting center fielder.

Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Rockies
Rodgers was the third overall pick in the 2015 Draft, with Dansby Swanson (No. 1), Alex Bregman (No. 2), Kyle Tucker (No. 5), Andrew Benintendi (No. 7) and Ian Happ (No. 9) also being selected within the first nine picks. While those five players are all established big league regulars at this point, Rodgers is still trying to find his place with the Rockies. Rodgers did have some success in 2021, hitting .284 with 15 homers over 415 plate appearances, but he also walked only 4.6% of the time and posted a 102 OPS+. Colorado is going to need more from the 25-year-old Rodgers in 2022, especially if the club doesn’t re-sign Trevor Story.

Nick Senzel, OF, Reds
Senzel was the second overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, but in his big league career so far, he has missed a considerable amount of time due to injuries and owns a 78 OPS+ over 163 games. With Nick Castellanos a free agent after opting out of his contract, and the Reds trading away Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez on Monday, the door is wide open for Senzel to establish himself in 2022.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF, White Sox
Less than two years after the White Sox selected him with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, Vaughn made his Major League debut last season and had to learn left field on the fly after Eloy Jiménez ruptured a pectoral tendon during Spring Training. Vaughn’s defense, predictably, wasn’t good. More troubling, however, was his lackluster offensive production, considering his bat was said to be close to big league ready when he was drafted. Vaughn had some success in the middle of the season, but a 7-for-71 (.099) finish left him with a .705 OPS on the year, and he started only once in Chicago’s four-game ALDS loss to the Astros. Vaughn did show some promise with the bat, ranking in the 72nd percentile in barrel rate, the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate and the 82nd percentile in average exit velocity, but if he doesn’t turn that into actual production in 2022, he could find himself losing more playing time to Gavin Sheets.