Is a breakthrough coming for these struggling 2023 All-Stars?

It’s tough to maintain All-Star-caliber production from year to year. As a matter of fact, for pitchers specifically, it’s truly as hard as it’s ever been. Only two pitchers were All-Stars in both 2023 and '24: Corbin Burnes and Emmanuel Clase. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that total is tied for the fewest pitchers to carry over from year to year in the history of the All-Star Game, and the fewest since the span of 2000-01, which also had two.

But when a player’s statistical production takes a dive, that doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Thanks to Statcast’s advanced metrics, we have the ability to take a deeper glance into which players have had regression due to bad luck, and which have had declines in important, stable metrics. Below, we break down 11 All-Stars from last season who have had rougher first halves of the 2024 season, and what they need to do to get things back on track after the break.

Randy Arozarena, LF, Rays

Arozarena’s batting average has declined in each of his full MLB seasons, going from .274 in 2021, to .263, .254 and finally a career-low .202 this season. Interestingly, this is the only season of Arozarena’s career in which his expected batting average is higher than his actual batting average, suggesting that some strong luck for Arozarena earlier in his career has run out this season.

Is there any hope for a turnaround, then? A good starting point is his improving plate discipline, as his 24.9% chase rate is below his career average of 27.2%. But for Arozarena to get back to an All-Star level, or at least that of an above-average starter, he must make the most of the swings he takes. His 26.0% sweet-spot rate and 30.5% whiff rate are both his worst values since at least 2021.

Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays

Bichette was a two-time AL hits leader and two-time All-Star between 2021 and '23, with a batting average of at least .290 and an OPS of at least .800 in all three seasons. Things haven’t been as simple this season (.222 BA, .596 OPS), one reason the Blue Jays' playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.

But there’s reason to believe things will turn around quickly. Both in batting average and weighted on-base average, the gaps between Bichette’s “expected” value and actual value rank in the top 10 among 207 hitters with at least 250 plate appearances in 2024. In other words, he’s been among the unluckiest hitters. However, his average exit velocity (89.6 mph) and barrel rate (4.5%) are both his lowest in four years as a full-time starter.

Adolis García, RF, Rangers

Fresh off setting new career highs in home runs (39) and RBIs (107), while also helping the Rangers win their first World Series, García was on top of the world entering the 2024 season. But that’s come to a halt, with his .211/.277/.405 batting line all representing career lows.

The good news for García is that he’s still capable of destroying the baseball (89th percentile barrel rate, 17 homers). As for what he's capable of changing, an interesting nugget on García is that his 46.6% first-pitch swing rate is comfortably a career high, and it dwarfs his 33.1% figure from a year ago. That might be a significant reason behind his walk rate dropping from 10.3% in 2023 to 7.4% this year.

Julio Rodríguez, CF, Mariners

Rodríguez was an All-Star and Silver Slugger Award winner in both of his first two MLB seasons, helping Seattle snap a 20-season playoff drought in 2022. He was already ranked by MLB Network as the game’s No. 10 player entering this season.

Year 3 just hasn’t been the same. There are still a lot of things Rodríguez has done well, particularly on the defensive side in center field, but the offensive results have not been there. Rodríguez has only 10 home runs through 97 games, after hitting 60 combined dingers from 2022-23. With that said, his expected stats nearly match what he did in 2023, when he also shook off a slow first half (.721 OPS) to go on a tear after the break (.941). Can he do that again?

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals

Arenado saw a streak of eight consecutive All-Star seasons (excluding the 2020 season, when there was no game) come to a halt in 2024. Is this the beginning of the end for the 33-year-old, or simply a rough patch?

Arenado has put the bat on the ball (89th percentile in strikeout rate), and his batting average (.270) and OBP (.323) are actually both slightly higher than they were last season, while his 19.0% whiff rate and 29.6% chase rate are both his lowest since 2021. But, like Rodríguez, the issue has been power, as Arenado only has eight homers after crushing at least 26 in each of the past eight full seasons. That's not a surprise, considering Arenado ranks in only the 8th percentile in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs

After winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award and finishing fifth in NL MVP voting during an electric 2023 season (25 homers, 50 steals), Carroll has endured a perplexing sophomore slump (five dingers, 18 swipes in 94 games.) Additionally, his .285 batting average and .506 slugging percentage from 2023 have shriveled to .212 and .334, respectively.

This has happened despite Carroll having a lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate than he did a year ago. How is this possible? The quality of contact has simply been much worse. Whether we look at barrel rate (7.6% to 3.8%), average exit velocity (90.0 mph to 87.9 mph) or expected slugging percentage (.441 to .339), the jump from 2023 to 2024 has not been kind to Carroll.

Matt Olson, 1B, Braves

Though Ronald Acuña Jr. took home NL MVP honors last season, Olson was also one of the linchpins behind arguably the best regular-season offense in MLB history. He led MLB with 54 home runs and 139 RBIs, finishing fourth in NL MVP voting.

It was always going to be an uphill battle for Olson to replicate that production, but the 30-year-old has still fallen off harder than anyone would have predicted. His .405 slugging percentage and .714 OPS are both the lowest of his career (min. 20 games played), far cries from his .604 and .993 values last season. A career-high 29.4% chase rate has been particularly problematic for Olson, as that has led to his highest strikeout rate since 2020 and lowest walk rate of his career.

Dansby Swanson, SS, Cubs

Swanson is most renowned for his defense, but he still had an OPS of at least .740 in every season from 2019-23, along with All-Star selections in 2022 and '23. This season, that number is down to .632, with career lows in each triple-slash stat (.212/.282/.350).

But the former No. 1 overall Draft pick certainly has reason to expect a turnaround. Both in slugging percentage and weighted on-base average, the gaps between Swanson’s “expected” value and actual value rank in the top six among 207 hitters with at least 250 plate appearances in 2024. His average exit velocity of 90.6 mph is a career high, and his 45.4% hard-hit rate is the second-best of his career (46.3%, 2022).

Pablo López, SP, Twins

López finished seventh in AL Cy Young voting last season, which was his fourth consecutive year with an ERA somewhere in the 3s. This year, that’s up to 5.11.

However, López has an expected ERA of only 3.43, the third-lowest of his career. Among 136 pitchers to face at least 250 batters in 2024, the gap between his expected and actual ERA is the fifth largest. Strikeouts and walks have both been long established as predictive stats, and his 5.26 K-BB ratio ranks eighth among qualified pitchers this season. In fact, since ERA became an official stat in 1913, no qualified pitcher has finished a season with an ERA of at least 5.00 and a K-BB ratio of at least 5-to-1. Either López will make an unfortunate kind of history, or we can expect a strong second-half bounceback.

Josh Hader, RP, Astros

Hader was selected to all five All-Star Games that were played from 2018-23, and he had a sterling 1.28 ERA with the Padres last year. In his first season with the Astros, that has jumped up to 3.86. So what's the level of concern here?

Like with López, there are encouraging signs. Hader’s 40.4% strikeout rate leads all MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, along with being his highest since 2021. His 39.5% whiff rate ranks third among 340 pitchers who have faced at least 250 opponent swings. His 1.000 WHIP is his lowest since 2021, while his .188 xBA and 2.74 xERA both rank in the 93rd percentile of MLB or better. By just about any metric besides actual ERA, Hader is who he’s always been.

David Bednar, RP, Pirates

Bednar was an All-Star in both 2022 and '23, along with having a sub-2.65 ERA in each of the past three seasons. This year, his ERA is at 5.01, and he missed almost a month with an oblique strain before returning to make one appearance before the break.

While Bednar’s expected ERA of 4.07 is lower than his actual ERA, it's still the highest he’s had in a season (min. 20 IP). His xBA of .235 is better than MLB’s collective average, but is also his highest allowed across the same four seasons. The good news is that he’s walking batters at a career-low 5.1% rate, thanks in large part to a 36.8% chase rate that ranks in the 99th percentile. But his career-worst 11.7% barrel rate will need to come down for Bednar to return to his previous form.