Breaking down the playoff race chaos scenarios

By MLB.com | September 22, 2024

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There’s one week left in the 2024 season and much is still undecided. That means there’s a good chance of at least a little chaos -- beautiful, beautiful baseball chaos.

With some division titles still unclaimed and Wild Card races that could very well go down to the final day, it looks like we’ve got a solid week of drama ahead.

Here are all of the opportunities for standings chaos in the final week -- and how each scenario would shake out:

DIVISION RACES

NL West

Entering Monday: Dodgers 3 up on Padres, 6 up on D-backs

Chance for chaos: Medium. The Padres lead their season series with the Dodgers, 7-3, thereby clinching the tiebreaker. They also have three head-to-head games remaining, at Dodger Stadium, beginning Tuesday. That gives San Diego a real shot at snatching the franchise’s first NL West title since 2006. The club will finish the season with three games at Arizona, which remains just close enough to factor into a three-team tie. That can only happen in a very specific scenario: if the Padres sweep the Dodgers and get swept by the D-backs, Los Angeles is swept by Colorado and Arizona sweeps San Francisco. Were that to happen, the Padres would claim the division on a three-team tiebreaker.

Tiebreakers

AL East

Entering Monday: Yankees up 6 on Orioles

Chance for chaos: Low. The Orioles have six games remaining and trail by six in the AL East standings, so their one remaining three-game series against the currently-first-place Yankees looms large. The Yankees have effectively backed the Orioles into a corner -- they have to be perfect from here on out, as anything less than a sweep in the head-to-head series will end the race outright. Baltimore must also sweep the Twins to close the regular season and hope the Pirates can sweep the Yankees in the Bronx to force a tie atop the East and win the head-to-head tiebreaker. Given that New York has effectively locked up the division just in the past seven days, Baltimore is relying heavily on a whiplash-inducing reversal of fortunes.

Tiebreaker: The Orioles lead the season series, 6-4. The only way the tiebreaker can come into play is if Baltimore sweeps New York this week and clinches it.

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AL West

Entering Monday: Astros up 5 on Mariners

Chance for chaos: Low. See: East, AL. The Mariners also enter their final head-to-head series of the year -- which will run from Monday through Wednesday -- with the advantage in the season series, but failing to sweep the Astros will eliminate them from division contention. Even if Seattle does complete the three-game sweep, the Mariners will still be two games back headed into the season’s final weekend. They close out 2024 with a three-game home set against the A’s, while the Astros travel to Cleveland to face the Guardians from Friday to Sunday.

Tiebreaker: Like the Orioles, the Mariners have a 6-4 edge here, and would hold the tiebreaker in a scenario in which it comes into play.

WILD CARD RACES

AL Wild Card

Entering Monday: Royals/Tigers up 1 game on Twins; Twins up 1 game on Mariners

Chance for chaos: High. Four teams are separated by just two games heading into the season’s final week, and only two spots are truly up for grabs. (With a four-game lead on all other Wild Card contenders, the Orioles likely have the top Wild Card spot locked up). The red-hot Tigers have surged into a tie with the Royals for the second spot, while Kansas City and Minnesota have been fading fast. Throw in the Mariners -- just two games out of a postseason spot entering Monday -- and things have the potential to get HIGHLY chaotic. Enjoy the ride.

Tiebreakers

NL Wild Card

Entering Monday: Padres up 3 on D-backs/Mets; D-backs/Mets up 2 on Braves

Chance for chaos: Medium. The Padres (or the Dodgers, should San Diego win the NL West) likely have the top Wild Card seed locked up, so the chance for chaos is pretty much limited to the second and third seeds. And the D-backs, Mets and Braves are all vying for those two spots. The Mets go to Atlanta for a huge three-game set starting Tuesday, so both they and the Braves can really enhance their position by taking care of business in that series, as the winner will also take the season series. From there, the Mets end the season with three in Milwaukee while the Braves host the Royals for three. Meanwhile, Arizona hosts the Giants for three games starting Monday, then closes things out with the Padres this weekend. The D-backs will also be eager to take care of their own business, given that a tiebreaker scenario with either the Mets or Braves is a dead end.

Tiebreakers

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