Cole, Burnes lead fantasy SP rankings

In an era when starting pitchers around the Majors are throwing fewer innings and rotations are more fluid than ever, the stability a top-flight ace can provide is incredibly valuable in fantasy.

There are many different strategies for drafting starting pitchers, but fantasy managers will likely look to secure at least one elite starter in the draft’s early rounds. Of course, there are only so many to go around, and you’ll also need to hit on some mid- and late-round picks to build a competitive rotation.

Here’s a look at the top starting pitcher options, per MLB.com's 2022 fantasy player rankings, broken down into tiers.

Tier 1: Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Jacob deGrom, Brandon Woodruff, Shane Bieber

Burnes, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, has a strong case to be the No. 1 pitcher off the board, but we’ll give the slight edge to Cole. Burnes’ dominance last year was reminiscent of Pedro Martinez in his prime, but he topped his previous career high in innings by more than 100 while firing 167 frames -- a number Cole has exceeded five times in his career.

Cole was inconsistent after MLB started cracking down on pitchers using foreign substances last June, but his whiff and strikeout rates were still among the best in the Majors after that point.

Scherzer continues to defy Father Time -- the 37-year-old finished 2021 with the best ERA (2.46) and WHIP (0.86) of his career while recording 236 K’s in 179 1/3 innings. The Mets signed Scherzer to a three-year, $130 million contract in December, pairing him up with deGrom.

If he avoids the injured list, deGrom could be the No. 1 arm in fantasy, but he didn’t pitch after the All-Star break last season due to a forearm/elbow issue. The Mets ace was cruising toward his third Cy Young Award before the injury, posting a 1.08 ERA with 146 K’s and 11 walks in 92 innings.

While others have higher ceilings, there may not be a safer choice in this tier than Buehler, who had 24 starts last season in which he threw at least six innings and allowed no more than two earned runs. No other pitcher had more than 20 such outings in 2021.

Tier 2: Lucas Giolito, Zack Wheeler, Julio Urías, Aaron Nola, Robbie Ray, Sandy Alcantara, Freddy Peralta

Fantasy managers who don’t grab one of the Tier 1 hurlers can still find a potential rotation headliner in this tier.

Wheeler battled arm troubles early in his career, missing two full seasons following Tommy John surgery and finishing with 86 1/3 innings in 2017, but he’s thrown the third-most innings in the Majors since the start of 2018. He finished second behind Burnes in the 2021 NL Cy Young Award voting after leading the league in K’s (247) and MLB in innings (213 1/3) while posting a 2.78 ERA.

Ray took home the AL Cy Young hardware in 2021 after leading the AL in ERA (2.84), WHIP (1.04) and innings (193 1/3) and the Majors in strikeouts (248). It was a stellar rebound season for a pitcher who had a 6.62 ERA the year before. The performance helped the left-hander earn a five-year, $115 million deal with the Mariners.

Peralta seems well positioned to build on his 2021 breakout; only two starters ranked in the 90th percentile or better in both whiff rate and hard-hit rate allowed last season -- Peralta and his Brewers teammate Burnes.

Tier 3: Lance Lynn, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Max Fried, Logan Webb, Joe Musgrove, Charlie Morton, Frankie Montas, Alek Manoah, Yu Darvish, Carlos Rodón, Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, Trevor Rogers, Luis Castillo, Justin Verlander

You’ll find an interesting collection of SP2/3s in this tier led by Lynn, one of four pitchers to earn Cy Young votes in each of the past three seasons, along with Cole, deGrom and Giolito.

Fried is the only pitcher in this tier who didn’t strike out more than a batter per inning last season, but his 158 ERA+ ties him with Buehler for third in MLB (min. 200 innings) since the start of 2020, behind Burnes and Woodruff.

In Yahoo leagues, Ohtani is split into two players -- one for offense and one for pitching -- who can be drafted and started separately. The offensive version of Ohtani is more valuable for fantasy purposes, but the pitching version has serious value, too. The two-way superstar had a 3.18 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 156 K’s in 130 1/3 innings on the mound last season.

After making one start in 2020 and missing all of 2021, Verlander is set to return from Tommy John surgery. The 39-year-old looked so good in a showcase last November that the Astros signed him to a one-year, $25 million deal. In 2019, the last time Verlander was healthy, he struck out 300 batters and won his second career Cy Young Award.

Tier 4: Shane McClanahan, Blake Snell, Pablo López, Tyler Mahle, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Framber Valdez, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Chris Sale, Zac Gallen, Ian Anderson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jack Flaherty

A 24-year-old lefty entering his second big league season, McClanahan brings rare heat from the left side -- his average four-seam fastball velocity of 96.4 mph was the highest of any southpaw starter. McClanahan pitched to a 2.98 ERA and a 10.1 K/9 in his final 16 starts as a rookie.

On the other end of the experience spectrum is Kershaw, who is returning for his 15th season with the Dodgers after signing a one-year deal with the club. The left-hander missed more than two months with left elbow inflammation and was shut down prior to the postseason due to forearm discomfort last year, but he's expected to be healthy for the start of 2022.

Sale and Flaherty, meanwhile, will begin the year on the injured list. Both would have been part of Tier 3, but Sale is recovering from a stress fracture in his right rib cage, while Flaherty was diagnosed with bursitis in his right shoulder. The two combined for just 121 innings in 2021.

Nobody in Tier 4 had more strikeouts last season than Mahle, who recorded a career-high 210 K’s for the Reds. Eovaldi (195) and Manaea (194) fell just shy of the 200-mark.

Tier 5: Luis Garcia, Michael Kopech, Logan Gilbert, Marcus Stroman, Mike Clevinger, Hyun Jin Ryu, Tarik Skubal, Adam Wainwright, Ranger Suárez, Anthony DeSclafani, John Means, Luis Severino, José Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., Germán Márquez

In Tier 5, you'll find a mix of inexperienced young hurlers with upside and solid veterans who can bring stability to the back end of your fantasy rotation. The flamethrowing Kopech is in the first group. He is expected to get a chance to start for the White Sox after mostly pitching out of the bullpen in his return from Tommy John surgery last year.

Severino also pitched in relief upon returning from Tommy John surgery last season, throwing six scoreless innings, but he’s likely to jump back into the Yankees’ rotation. Severino was one of the game’s best starters before his injury setbacks, recording a 3.18 ERA and 10.5 K/9 in 63 starts from 2017-18.

The same goes for Clevinger, another Tommy John surgery recipient who is set to return in 2022. From 2017-20, Clevinger put up a 2.96 ERA and a 10.2 K/9 in 88 appearances (82 starts).