Vlad Jr., Freeman lead fantasy 1B ranks

Last year was another strong year for first basemen, following a 2020 season in which both MVP Award winners were from that position.

You’re almost spoiled for choice here. Freddie Freeman finally has company again in Tier 1 from a 23-year-old who will almost certainly be the first overall pick in a few leagues. That said, if you prefer to spend your early picks on leaner positions, there are plenty of gems to be had even low in Tier 3, including a few who could very well lead their respective leagues in home runs.

Before you make a decision on your draft strategy, take a look at the top fantasy first basemen going into the 2022 season.

Tier 1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman

As predicted in the rankings last year, a monster season in which he led the American League in runs (123), home runs (48), on-base percentage (.401), slugging percentage (.601) and OPS (1.002) has catapulted Guerrero into Tier 1. It’s a genuine challenge to find a metric in which Guerrero didn’t dominate last season. There’s a reason he belongs alongside Freeman, who is still among the best hitters in the game.

Guerrero's only issue offensively is his propensity to come up empty, with his whiff rate of 27.8% ranking in the 28th percentile among Major Leaguers, a number that skyrocketed against non-fastballs (36.9% against breaking pitches, 44.4% against offspeed pitches). But given his age – Guerrero just turned 23 – there’s reason to believe that can improve, if the AL suddenly stops throwing him fastballs . Even if it doesn’t, if missing pitches is a byproduct of having an average exit velocity of 95.1 mph, tied for second in baseball with Giancarlo Stanton, it shouldn't hurt you or the Blue Jays.

Meanwhile, Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP struggled early in 2021, carrying a .235 batting average into June, but came on so strong afterwards that his overall numbers on the '21 season (.300/.393/.503, 31 HR) are perfectly in line with his career averages and got him a ninth-place finish in NL MVP voting.

There’s certainly potential for a World Series hangover, as the Braves played 16 postseason games on their way to winning their first championship since 1995, giving Freeman a total of 175 on his season. But given that from 2011-19, Freeman averaged 147 games a season, it’s not unreasonable to think he can overcome any lingering side effects from the prolonged campaign, and be the reliable fantasy 1B he’s been for the last decade. Now being part of an absolutely stacked Dodgers lineup doesn't hurt, either.

Tier 2: Matt Olson, Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, José Abreu

Olson has never been a high-average guy, but even so, after he hit .195 in 2020, he had something to prove. He responded by having his best season yet, hitting .271/.371/.540 with 39 home runs. Power has never been an issue for Olson, so as long as he’s on the field, he’s a safe bet for at least 30 homers in 2022, and quite possibly a lot more. Swapping home ballparks (Oakland for Atlanta) should only help.

Goldschmidt is as reliable as anyone. Few hitters could put together a season in which they hit .294/.365/.514 with 31 home runs and finished sixth in MVP voting and still manage to fly under the radar. He was just as good as those numbers look, too – he had the fifth-most hard-hit balls (95+ mph exit velocity) in baseball, and finished ninth with 64 barrels.

Alonso is about as pure a power hitter as they come. In 370 career games, he’s already hit 106 home runs, the second-most for any hitter in his first 370, trailing only Ryan Howard (115). He put up another 37 homers in 2021 with a .519 slugging %. His 65 barrels on the season were tied with Bryce Harper, who took home the NL MVP Award. His expected slugging % was in the 92nd percentile, which is where it ranked in 2019. All this to say that if you’re looking for someone to fill the home run column, Alonso is your guy.

The 2020 AL MVP, Abreu appeared in 152 games in 2021 despite a couple of injuries, but his numbers were down, in particular his average (.261) and slugging percentage (.481). While not monumental drops, the hits to his expected numbers were similarly concerning – his expected batting average dropped by .047, tied for the ninth-worst among qualifying batters, and his expected slugging fell .130, good for seventh-worst. Whether or not wear and tear was responsible for the downturn, age has to be a consideration when drafting Abreu, who turned 35 in January.

Tier 3: Jared Walsh, Ryan Mountcastle, C.J. Cron, Josh Bell, Rhys Hoskins, Anthony Rizzo, Ty France, Yuli Gurriel, Trey Mancini

Walsh was the Angels’ second-most valuable hitter in 2021 (we’ll let you guess who came in first), putting together a 29-HR, 98-RBI campaign while hitting a strong .277/.340/.509. As far as Tier 3 first basemen go, he might be the most well rounded.

Mountcastle hit 33 homers in his first full season, keeping pace with most everyday first basemen, but the league found the holes in his swing – how effectively he can patch them will largely determine how successful he is in 2022.

Muncy’s traditional stats were as expected in 2021, if not a little below his career averages. But his batted ball data told a different story. 16.1% of his batted balls were barrels, he had a .583 expected SLG% (56 points higher than his actual SLG%) and his chase rate was in the 99th percentile, higher compared to the league than ever.

The transition to Colorado worked wonders for Cron, who hit .281/.375/.530 in 2021 after averaging .257/.312/.464 from 2014-’20.

Bell is, if nothing else, going to give you power. His 52% hard-hit rate last season ranked in the 93rd percentile, and Steamer has him projected for 31 home runs in 2022.

It sounds strange to call Votto a sleeper pick – he’s Joey Votto – but it's plausible some didn't notice how strong he was at the plate in 2021. His sweet-spot percentage, or the number of batted balls hit with a launch angle between eight and 26 degrees, was the highest in baseball at 44.3% and he had the largest increases in hard-hit percentage (up 17.5%) and barrel rate (8.1%).

Rizzo had an underwhelming 2021 after a disappointing 2020, hitting .248 with 22 HR and 61 RBIs. His 2022 season -- now that he's back with the Yankees -- might prove that the last two years were a brief lull in a great career, but for a player whose value has always been in his consistency, it’s hard not to notice a trend in the wrong direction.

It never quite came together for Hoskins last season, but the underlying numbers were there, for the most part. His barrel rate hit a career high (17%, in the 94th percentile), as did his expected slugging (.564). His 27 homers over 107 games equate to about 41 over 162.

France, playing his first full season, hit .291/.368/.445 with 18 homers over 152 games, but his relative inexperience makes it difficult to gauge whether that was an accurate depiction of his skill set.

Gurriel actually won the AL batting title with a .319 average in 2021, edging out Guerrero in the final days of the season. While his career average of .293 speaks to his potential as a hitter, he won’t be good for much power, topping 20 home runs just once: when he hit 31 in 2019 amid the league’s power surge.

Mancini missed the 2020 season due to a cancer diagnosis, but when he returned last year, he looked like he hadn't missed much more than a week. His .255/.326/.432 line and 21 homers were a bit below his career averages, but having had more time to build back strength and get back in the swing of things, Mancini could very likely see a full return to form.