Could the Blue Jays land Ohtani?

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Dare to dream.

Imagine if the 2021 version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could also pitch like Kevin Gausman. That’s who Shohei Ohtani is, baseball’s brightest star.

He’s about to change the course of a franchise’s history, signing a deal that will make your eyes bulge out of your head. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (subscription required), the Blue Jays remain one of the teams involved in Ohtani’s bidding, alongside the Dodgers, Cubs, Angels and potentially the Giants.

As the MLB Winter Meetings open in Nashville, all eyes are on Ohtani, and if you’re the Blue Jays, nothing else matters until The Decision is made. Here’s what you need to know:

WHAT MATTERS … AND WHAT DOESN’T

The money matters. The contract details matter.

As much as we love to talk about how geography, personal relationships and championship odds swing these megadeals, money talks and it’s typically the loudest voice at the table. With a deal expected to surge past $500 million total, replacing Mike Trout’s current deal as the biggest in the history of the sport, the Blue Jays will need to step into a completely different universe of spending.

Working in Toronto’s favor? They have the money. Rogers ownership, while sometimes more complicated financially than an individual owner or group of investors, gives the Blue Jays rare financial muscle. Recent years have brought Hyun Jin Ryu, George Springer, Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. The Blue Jays aren’t just the new kid at the high-rollers' table, they belong there.

We can’t completely dismiss the extras, of course. Canada is a new market for Ohtani, filled with off-field potential and new fans. From the outside looking in -- particularly as a Canadian -- that sounds attractive. Realistically, does this national market of 40 million, which is similar to the population of California, even move the needle for Ohtani? Which opportunities exist here that don’t exist elsewhere?

Ohtani went to the same high school as Yusei Kikuchi (Hanamaki Higashi), and while that familiarity can help, is a one-year overlap with a No. 4 starter who attended the same high school at a different time really a factor that will swing a half-billion dollar deal? It’s a reach.

So many of these “extra” factors can be tiebreakers, but in the end, it typically comes back to the contract. With Springer and Ryu as prime examples, the Blue Jays were willing to take that one extra step (in each case, an additional year than the rest of the market). What’s that extra step for Ohtani? Keep opt-outs in mind. Even with the extravagant deal Ohtani is expected to sign, he and his agent have all the bargaining power in the world to negotiate not just one, but multiple player opt-outs to help maximize his future earnings or save him from playing through a rebuild. Those could be crucial bargaining chips for a team looking to shock the baseball world.

OHTANI’S FIT WITH THE BLUE JAYS

The best player on the planet is a perfect fit on any roster, but each will take a different shape and how Ohtani would fit the Blue Jays matters.

Coming off elbow surgery, Ohtani is expected to hit without restrictions in 2024 and be ready to return to the rotation as a two-way star in '25 and beyond. He’ll be the everyday DH in '24 regardless of where he signs, and in Toronto, that wouldn’t require any secondary shuffling. Brandon Belt is a free agent, Guerrero can shave down from his 34 DH games last season and the Blue Jays are consciously trying to pace their catchers better. Sliding Ohtani into those DH reps, and potentially the No. 2 spot in the lineup, is as simple as it gets.

On the mound, Ohtani’s 2025 return would line up naturally with Kikuchi, who is entering the final season of his three-year deal. Bassitt would share the rotation with Ohtani for one season, theoretically, and Ohtani could move forward alongside Gausman and Berríos. Alek Manoah is the mystery man while No. 1 prospect Ricky Tiedemann represents the sky-high upside of the group, regardless of what happens next.

BACKUP PLANS

If not Ohtani, expect the Blue Jays to be involved in the bidding for Padres superstar Juan Soto, which would be the ultimate “win now” move. Soto has one year of team control remaining and it would take an absolutely massive extension to keep him from hitting free agency at 26 (but perhaps that mental math becomes easier after you’ve stretched your legs by considering a half-billion dollar offer to Ohtani …).

Cody Bellinger then leads the free-agent bats and is a clean fit for the Blue Jays in so many ways, but could cost $200 million. The next level holds Matt Chapman or Jeimer Candelario, both options at third base, while Rhys Hoskins is a name to watch with the Blue Jays if they don’t land a big fish.

More likely? If neither Ohtani, Soto or Bellinger land with Toronto, the trade market offers more upside than free agency and the Blue Jays have been very busy pricing out the market, preparing to enter if that time comes.