First base poses a Cronenworth conundrum for Padres

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The real question when sizing up the state of the Padres at first base: Is there actually a first baseman anywhere on this roster?

The short answer: No, not really. And while Jake Cronenworth filled that role admirably for parts of last season, it's abundantly clear the Padres are losing some value by playing an excellent defensive second baseman at first base.

And therein lies one of the most important unanswered questions this winter: What do the Padres add at first base -- and, in turn, what do they do with Cronenworth and the rest of their infield alignment.

Here's a look at where things currently stand for the Padres at first base:

On the 40-man roster: Cronenworth, (potentially Matthew Batten and Luis Campusano)

Departures: Matt Carpenter, Garrett Cooper, Ji Man Choi, Jurickson Profar

Top-30 prospects: Nathan Martorella (No. 11)

What do the Padres have in Cronenworth?

A solid player -- just not necessarily a first baseman. Which isn't to say Cronenworth hasn't been good defensively at first. He has. But consider his performance juxtaposed with the league averages:

League-average 1B (2023): .254/.331/.433, 108 wRC+
League-average 2B (2023): .252/.320/.397, 97 wRC+
Cronenworth, career (2020-23): .249/.331/.418, 109 wRC+

When he plays first base, Cronenworth is an average hitter who doesn't bring much defensive value. When he plays second, Cronenworth is an above-average hitter who was a Gold Glove finalist in his last full season there (2022).

So where should Cronenworth play?

Well, based on the current roster, first base is probably the right spot. At second, the Padres already have Ha-Seong Kim, the reigning utility Gold Glove Award winner and an even better defender than Cronenworth.

There might be a window early in the season -- if Manny Machado starts the year at DH while working his way back from elbow surgery -- where Kim could play third while Cronenworth plays second. But that's only temporary. And the Padres don't exactly have anyone to slot in at first base, if Cronenworth were to play elsewhere.

Does that mean a trade is likely?

There's been plenty of buzz about a potential deal involving Cronenworth -- or even Kim. In a vacuum, both are extremely useful players who the Padres should want to keep. But the puzzle pieces don't quite fit right now. Throw in the fact that the Padres have numerous holes elsewhere on their roster, and it starts to make sense why Cronenworth is on the trade block.

But the reality is: The Padres don't need to make a move. Right now, it feels slightly likelier that they keep both Cronenworth and Kim and settle for an infield surplus. (Considering the way injuries hit the infield last season, a surplus seems prudent.)

What if they do trade Cronenworth?

Cronenworth is entering the first season of the seven-year, $80 million extension he signed last spring. His departure would free up some financial wiggle room, and No. 2 prospect Jackson Merrillcould theoretically fill a similar role -- a lefty-hitting infielder capable of playing multiple positions. In the meantime, moving Cronenworth could help net the Padres the pitching or outfield help they need.

Still, Cronenworth is a two-time All-Star. He struggled early last season but was his usual productive self in July and August before suffering a season-ending wrist fracture. Kim is a pending free agent, and if the Padres were to trade Cronenworth, their long-term infield situation gets murky. Plus, their lineup is far too righty-heavy already, following the departures of Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. Dealing Cronenworth would further that problem.

The verdict

No matter what happens next with Cronenworth, the Padres still must acquire a first-base type this winter. The good news? There are plenty of those still available, and a number of them would come cheap. (Of course, the Padres can't afford to miss like they did with Choi at last year's deadline.)

It's possible their hypothetical first-base addition serves mainly as a DH -- with Cronenworth at first and an otherwise healthy infield. Or... he might split time at first when the Padres shuffle their infield to account for injuries or other absences. Or... maybe he's Cronenworth's replacement following a trade that helps the team address its other needs.

Whatever the outcome, the Padres -- quite clearly -- have work to do at first base.