Will Vlad and Bo be moved? Execs discuss Jays' options ahead of pivotal winter

The Blue Jays were one of the most fascinating clubs to watch at this year’s Trade Deadline, with a number of directions they could have taken. As we look toward the offseason, the Jays still have a variety of approaches they can take into the winter, so which way will they go?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Jordan Romano and Chad Green are all slated to become free agents after the 2025 season, and given the Blue Jays’ disappointing 2024 campaign, nobody would have blamed general manager Ross Atkins for trading all five to jumpstart a rebuild.

Yet when the Deadline passed, they all remained in Toronto, as did Kevin Gausman, who has two-plus years remaining on his five-year, $110 million contract. Toronto did make a number of moves, trading away impending free agents Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi García, Justin Turner, Trevor Richards and Kevin Kiermaier, as well as Isiah Kiner-Falefa (under control through 2025) and Nate Pearson (under control through 2026).

The deals helped restock an ailing farm system, adding eight players into the club’s Top 30 Prospects list, according to MLB Pipeline: No. 3, Jake Bloss; No. 6, Jonatan Clase; No. 8, Charles McAdoo; No. 18, Eddinson Paulino; No. 19, Will Wagner; No. 22, Yohendrick Pinango; No. 23, Cutter Coffey; and No. 29, Josh Rivera.

The idea behind holding on to Guerrero, Bichette, Bassitt and Gausman was to retool the roster this winter and try to make a postseason push in 2025, presumably the final year this core will be together. Toronto has tried unsuccessfully to extend both Guerrero and Bichette, and while keeping one of them – Guerrero seems to be the more likely to stay – is certainly a possibility, this group that seemed to have so much promise after reaching the playoffs three times from 2020-23 appears to be reaching its expiration date.

“I think at this point, they are somewhat committed to seeing what this group can do before they blow it up,” said a National League executive. “If they were willing to move the bigger pieces, they could certainly add some legit depth to their system – but they’d have to be willing to take a step back for a period of time to do so. I feel like they should give it another go, given that they chose not to move those bigger pieces at the Deadline this year; but if that’s the case, they likely need to be ready to pull the plug if things don’t go well by midseason.”

That theory is shared by a number of other rival executives, who believe Toronto’s actions in late July left the club with no other choice than to give it a go for one more season.

“They still have some real talent,” said an American League executive. “I don’t think it’s crazy to run it back and sell at the 2025 Deadline if it’s not going well. Of course, they also could miss the chance to accelerate a reset if guys like Vlad and Gausman struggle. Both could likely net some interesting prospects this offseason, and that’s not guaranteed at the Deadline.”

One of the Blue Jays’ biggest problems is that, aside from Guerrero, the rest of the lineup has underperformed badly in 2024. George Springer has seen his OPS drop in each of his four years with the club, while Alejandro Kirk, Davis Schneider and Bichette all carry an OPS below .700 this season.

If the Blue Jays open 2025 with a payroll similar to their 2024 figure, they should have approximately $100 million to spend this winter, which should help them fill some of the holes on the roster.

“I think Toronto does aim to contend next year rather than rebuilding,” an NL executive said. “Their rotation should be pretty solid, with some key position players. The focus should be on an overhaul of their bullpen as well as maybe adding a big-name free agent for some additional offense and, more importantly, defense. They’re certainly in an interesting place through where they can choose to start over or add pieces to compete.”

Even if the Blue Jays manage to bounce back next season and contend for a postseason spot, they may be doing so in advance of a steep decline beginning in 2026. Springer will be entering the final year of his six-year, $150 million deal at age 36, while Gausman will be 35 years old entering the final year of his contract. Unless some of the club’s top prospects are ready to graduate to the big leagues and become impact players, the end of the road for this core could be a bumpy one.

“Toronto is in some trouble when it comes to how successful they can be within the next several seasons,” an NL executive said. “They can choose to return the current group for 2025 and make another run at it by plugging their holes with short-term acquisitions, or they can commit to rolling forward the value on their roster that’s set to expire after 2025 and 2026. That choice puts them in a tough spot. They are probably no better than the fourth-best AL East team on paper, even if they try to run it back with their current group while making short-term additions.”

If Atkins opts to move one of his big stars this winter, the consensus is that Bichette is the most likely to go. But coming off a subpar and injury-riddled season – he’s played only 80 games, slashing .222/.275/.320 with four homers – his value likely won’t be as high as it was a year ago, when he was coming off his third straight solid season and his second All-Star appearance.

“I sense there is interest on their part to move Bichette,” an AL executive said. “Buying a guy out of his arb years and not extending him further sends a message that either he or they have concern past the six years they have him.”

“It seems like they’d be selling low on Bichette and may just be better off seeing if he rebounds,” another AL exec said. “If there’s a [Corbin] Burnes-like return for Vlad – two or more players who can help now – they should consider it. There’s really no easy answer. I think anything along the ‘all in’ to ‘tear it down’ spectrum is defensible.”