'Too many good players': Looking at Double-A Altoona's potential starters
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BRADENTON, Fla. -- John Baker has a problem to tackle. It’s a good problem, but it’s a problem nonetheless.
“What’s going to go into my thought process? Probably a lot of Advil and sitting up at 3:30 in the morning, not feeling prepared to make the best decision for everybody,” said Baker, the Pirates’ director of coaching and player development. “A lot of thought’s going to go into that, and we can try to be as creative as possible."
Baker’s conundrum, one shared by several in the organization, is finalizing Double-A Altoona’s starting rotation. There’s no shortage of valid options. The reality is that several promising arms will be snubbed.
“This is the challenge of abundance,” Baker said. “We have too many good players and not enough spots. What a wonderful thing to say.”
So who exactly are these pitchers that Baker is referring to? Here are some candidates for the Curve’s starting five, along with their ranking by MLB Pipeline among the Pirates' prospects.
Not much to say here. Among all candidates, Priester, the No. 49 prospect per MLB Pipeline, is the closest to a lock. In 2021, the right-hander improved as the season progressed. In his first 10 starts, he had a 3.35 ERA with 8.37 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last 10 starts, he had a 2.80 ERA with 9.55 strikeouts per nine innings. Should Priester build on that late-season success, Triple-A Indianapolis -- or even a cup of coffee with the Pirates -- could be in his sights.
Mlodzinski’s first professional season was derailed by right shoulder tendinitis that kept him out for several weeks, but prior to the injury, he was even better than advertised. Through his first nine starts of 2021, he had a 2.63 ERA with 54 strikeouts across 41 innings. Mlodzinski was limited to short outings upon returning, but with a full offseason to get healthy, along with a smarter work routine, he should be a mainstay in Altoona’s rotation and another candidate to jump to Indianapolis by season’s end.
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Nicolas, acquired from the Marlins in the Jacob Stallings trade, had an odd first professional season. At High-A Beloit, Nicolas had a lot of strikeouts (12.97 K/9), gave up a lot of home runs (1.96 HR/9) and allowed an unsavory number of walks (3.26 BB/9). In 13 appearances, he had a 5.28 ERA. With Double-A Pensacola, Nicolas’s run-preventing fortunes flipped. Strikeouts were down (11.44 K/9), walks were up (5.72 BB/9) and homers were basically eliminated (0.69 HR/9). Thanks to a high left on base percentage of 85.5%, his ERA was 2.52, albeit with a FIP of 3.99. That’s a lot of numbers to digest, so here’s the skinny: Don’t be surprised if Nicolas laces up for the Curve.
In a Greensboro rotation headlined by Priester and Mlodzinski, Burrows was the best of the bunch before a left oblique injury robbed him of two months. Even with the missed time, Burrows’s numbers were fantastic. In 13 starts, Burrows had a 2.20 ERA and struck out 12.12 batters per nine innings. Burrows primarily relies on a mid-90s fastball and an above-average curveball, occasionally mixing in a harder changeup. Burrows may need to establish a fourth pitch going forward, but for right now, his three-pitch mix is a tried and true formula.
J.C. Flowers (Unranked)
Even in a farm system that features Bubba Chandler and Lonnie White Jr., among others, there’s an argument that Flowers is the best athlete in the farm system. At Florida State, Flowers pulled two-way duty as a junior, a showing that got him drafted in the fourth round back in 2019. Flowers spent time in the rotation and bullpen last season with promising enough results: a 3.78 ERA with 92 strikeouts across 78 2/3 innings. Flowers’s future role is ambiguous, but given how little he’s pitched over the last half-decade -- he didn’t pitch in his first two years at Florida State -- there’s incentive for the organization to see what it truly has.
Thomas is a bit of a wild card. His physical tools are hard to miss as he boasts a combination of athleticism, size and strength, but last year was a clear step backwards. He allowed career-worst numbers in walks (5.19 BB/9) and home runs (1.93 HR/9). The result was a 5.19 ERA and 6.49 FIP. While Thomas believes he will eclipse the best pitcher in baseball, the abundance of starters could present an opportunity for the Pirates to experiment with him in a late-inning relief role.
Worth mentioning
Adrian Florencio and Luis Ortiz both pitched well for Low-A Bradenton, but the 23-year-olds are more likely to begin with High-A Greensboro opposed to skipping that level entirely. No. 15 prospect Jared Jones, 20, is the youngest of these candidates and will likely begin with Greensboro as well, where he can work on refining his control. Cody Bolton (No. 29) and Aaron Shortridge haven’t pitched since 2019 due to injury -- Bolton suffered a right torn meniscus and Shortridge underwent Tommy John -- but could see some time with the Curve at some point.