The likeliest award winner from every team

In both the best and worst of team seasons, an individual can shine through. You don’t have to be a World Series contender to have a major award winner, so we’ve taken up this annual exercise to try to determine the member of each team who is most likely to take home Baseball Writers’ Association of America hardware – be it the MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year award.

Here are this year’s picks, some of which were pretty darn difficult.

AL EAST

Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, MVP
Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman received Cy Young support last season (Manoah finished third, Gausman ninth). Either guy could win it this year, but Guerrero is perennially the pick here. Even in a down 2022, he finished 16th in the vote (after a runner-up finish in ’21) and his hard-hit metrics indicate he had some poor batted-ball luck. This loaded and more balanced lineup (in which Bo Bichette might be another MVP candidate) should afford Guerrero plenty of opportunity to drive in runs. Guerrero’s Spring Training knee issue does not appear to be a major concern.

Orioles: Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Rookie of the Year
The 21-year-old Henderson -- the No. 1 prospect in all of MLB, per MLB Pipeline -- will be among the favorites to win this AL honor after hitting four homers, seven doubles and a triple in his first 132 plate appearances last year. He maintains his rookie eligibility but could have competition with teammate and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.

Rays: Wander Franco, SS, MVP
Shane McClanahan’s Cy Young bid might be the better pick here. He was firmly in the mix for that honor last year before dealing with a shoulder impingement late in the season. But anything involving the shoulder and pitchers gives us pause. While Franco has had injury issues of his own, he’s demonstrated that he can hit the ball hard with consistency while not striking out. Franco’s upside, therefore, is immense and he figures to be the best player on a good team.

Red Sox: Triston Casas, 1B, Rookie of the Year
We’re certainly not ruling out a Rafael Devers MVP bid, but when one of the top prospects in MLB (Casas ranks 23rd, per MLB Pipeline) seems destined for an everyday job, that’s a safer selection here. Casas’ left-handed power should play up at Fenway Park, though 29-year-old teammate Masataka Yoshida could also vie for this honor in his first season in the United States.

Yankees: Aaron Judge, RF, MVP
We haven’t had a back-to-back MVP in either league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012-13, and the odds of Judge repeating his 62-homer output are slim as a pinstripe. If Gerrit Cole can corral his home-run rate, he’s an annual Cy Young threat, and Anthony Volpe might be a Rookie of the Year candidate.

AL CENTRAL

Guardians: José Ramírez, 3B, MVP
It’s a tough call here between Ramírez for MVP or Shane Bieber for Cy Young. However, Ramírez finished fourth in the MVP voting last season despite playing half the year with only one hand (not literally) and he’s been a finalist for the honor three times.

Royals: Drew Waters, OF, Rookie of the Year
Labeling Bobby Witt Jr. an MVP candidate seems premature, and the Royals aren’t replete with obvious choices for this discussion. But even though the 24-year-old Waters is currently sidelined with an oblique injury, there should be enough at-bats for him this season to show what he can do at the big league level. Last year, he had an .803 OPS in 108 plate appearances.

Tigers: Ryan Kreidler, UTIL, Rookie of the Year
A year ago, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene seemed like obvious Rookie of the Year candidates for the Tigers, until struggles and injury intervened. This year, the Tigers don’t have front-line prospects coming to the surface, but they do have a few young players who should have the opportunity to make an impact. Kreidler, a natural shortstop who will play all over the field, is one such example. He’s also the son of a baseball writer, so winning a Baseball Writers’ honor would be fitting.

Twins: Carlos Correa, SS, MVP
After the never-ending free agent saga that finally ended with Correa right back where he started, what a story this would be. Correa has gotten down-ballot votes for MVP three times in his career, never finishing higher than fifth (2021).

White Sox: Oscar Colas, OF, Rookie of the Year
There’s a ton of talent on this team, but, given the way 2022 played out, we’re going to need to see more before we jump back on, say, the Luis Robert MVP hype train. Instead, we’ll take the safer route with a rookie who ought to have a ton of opportunity in the lineup. Colas has a good feel for hitting and above-average power.

AL WEST

Angels: Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, MVP
Mike Trout’s struggles to stay on the field and Ohtani’s otherworldly output have drowned out a once-fun debate over which Angels star is the more likely MVP. Right now, the only reason not to list Ohtani is the possibility that he gets dealt midseason in his walk year. If he were to change leagues, that would likely kill his MVP chances. But anyway, we’ll take our chances with him here.

Astros: Kyle Tucker, OF, MVP
The best team in baseball offers options aplenty, be it potential Cy Young candidates in Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, MVP-caliber talents like Yordan Álvarez and Alex Bregman (maybe even Jeremy Peña if he can treat the entire season like he did October 2022) and a potential Rookie of the Year in Hunter Brown. The 26-year-old Tucker has proven to be one of the most well-rounded players in the game, and an .860 OPS and 11 total bWAR over the last two seasons is just scratching the surface of his potential.

A's: Shintaro Fujinami , RHP, Rookie of the Year
The A’s top three prospects -- catcher/first baseman Tyler Soderstrom, left-hander Ken Waldichuk and infielder Zack Gelof -- could all impact the roster this year. But we’ll single out the 28-year-old Fujinami only because we know he’ll have an ample number of starting opportunities after pitching nearly 1,000 innings in Japan.

Mariners: Julio Rodríguez  , OF, MVP
The near-unanimous Rookie of the Year in 2022 seemingly has an MVP in his future at some point. Why not now? Rodríguez slashed .284/.345/.509 in his first 560 big league plate appearances while propelling the Mariners to their first playoff berth in a generation and finishing seventh in the MVP vote.

Rangers: Jacob deGrom, RHP, Cy Young
If the shift ban is as friendly to Corey Seager as some suspect, perhaps he’ll be at an MVP caliber. But deGrom, even with that iffy injury history, is the safer bet for some hardware. The two-time Cy winner is now in a league where the early outlook for the Cy race looks pretty wide open, with unanimous 2022 AL winner Justin Verlander having moved to the NL.

NL EAST

Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, MVP
On last year’s list, we were presumptuous in assuming Acuña could immediately return to an MVP level so soon after major knee surgery (and quite frankly, we didn’t foresee Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider making as major an impact as they did in finishing 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year vote). But after a normal offseason, the electric Acuña is one of the odds-on favorites for this award in 2023.

Marlins: Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Cy Young
Only 11 hurlers in history have managed to win the Cy Young in consecutive seasons. It’s asking an awful lot of Alcantara to join that particular list. But he’s a rare workhorse in the modern game, and he’s still the best awards bet on this Marlins roster, unless, perhaps, Eury Pérez gets enough innings to vie for the Rookie of the Year or Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a sudden MVP-level breakout.

Mets: Justin Verlander, RHP, Cy Young
Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor were both top-10 MVP finishers last year, and prospects Brett Baty and Francisco Álvarez could wind up vying for the Rookie of the Year. But the debate here revolves around the top of the rotation, where two future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Verlander are both still capable of Cy Young seasons. Scherzer had injury issues last year, so the reigning AL winner is our pick. (By the way, if Verlander were to win it, he would join Scherzer as one of only seven pitchers to win it in both leagues.)

Nationals: Thad Ward, RHP, Rookie of the Year
The Nats just don’t give us much to work with. Their best young players have exceeded their rookie eligibility limits, and No. 4 prospect Cade Cavalli had a rotation opportunity before suffering a season-ending elbow injury. Joey Meneses sure played like an MVP in 56 games last season, but it’s hard to expect that for 162 games. Ward was the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft and will probably be given every opportunity to stick on the big league pitching staff, so don’t count him out.

Phillies: Aaron Nola, RHP, Cy Young
Trea Turner is the Phillies’ best MVP pick, but the voting there tends to favor guys with more power than Turner has provided thus far in his career. Andrew Painter’s iffy elbow slightly clouds his Rookie of the Year candidacy. Ultimately, it comes down to Nola or Zack Wheeler in the Cy Young discussion. Both are capable of winning one (and Wheeler probably should have in 2021), but we’ll give the pending free agent Nola the edge after he finished fourth last season.

NL CENTRAL

Brewers: Corbin Burnes, RHP, Cy Young
The Brewers are starting to graduate top prospects like Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer to the big leagues, so they might wind up with a Rookie of the Year. But for now, Burnes, who won the Cy in 2021 and finished seventh last season, is the easy pick, with the obvious caveat that co-ace Brandon Woodruff is capable, as well.

Cardinals: Nolan Arenado, 3B, MVP
The Cards have the reigning MVP in Paul Goldschmidt, but the 35-year-old Goldy was the oldest MVP of the steroid-testing era. Arenado is entering his age-32 season, finished third last year and has three other top-five finishes in his career. He’s the safer selection at MVP. But is he the safest award choice on this team? It might be Jordan Walker for Rookie of the Year, as he’s looked this spring like a star in the making. But Walker will have to earn his at-bats, and, anyway, MVP is cooler. So, Arenado it is.

Cubs: Hayden Wesneski RHP, Rookie of the Year
The best Cubs award bet might be on Cody Bellinger for Comeback Player of the Year. But because we are focused here only on the BBWAA honors, we’ll do as we have with other clubs on this list that don’t have obvious MVP (that would be a big leap for Dansby Swanson) or Cy Young candidates and go with a rookie who has a clear avenue to a regular role. That’s Wesneski, the Cubs’ No. 5 prospect who looked solid in 33 innings last year and appears to be positioned to claim a rotation spot out of camp.

Pirates: Ji-Hwan Bae, 2B/OF, Rookie of the Year
Unless, say, Mitch Keller makes a dramatic jump into Cy Young standing, the best we can reasonably hope for with the Pirates in the award department is for a rookie to make waves. Bae, who had 30 steals and six triples at Triple-A last year, is interesting in the new rules environment, which emphasizes speed. He’ll have a chance at a decent number of at-bats in a super-utility role.

Reds: Spencer Steer, 3B, Rookie of the Year
Elly De La Cruz is the higher-ranked prospect (No. 1 in the Reds’ system, No. 10 in MLB) and could reach the bigs soon, but he’s only played 47 games above the Single-A level. Steer, on the other hand, looks to be the Reds’ regular at third base from the outset of 2023, which means the club’s No. 5 prospect will have the most opportunity to put up award-worthy numbers.

NL WEST

D-backs: Corbin Carroll, OF, Rookie of the Year
The Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson is the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, and Carroll is the favorite of many for the NL honor. The D-backs have cleared the path to his everyday role and signed him to an eight-year extension, on the heels of an .830 OPS in his first 115 plate appearances. That said, as we’ve discussed elsewhere, Zac Gallen has what it takes to win the Cy Young this season.

Dodgers: Mookie Betts, OF, MVP
As usual, this is a tough call here, because Freddie Freeman is also eminently capable of another MVP, Julio Urías can again figure prominently in the Cy Young race and the Dodgers, who have had something like 78% of all NL Rookies of the Year in history (only a slight exaggeration), will be giving opportunities to a handful of their top 10 prospects. But, entering his age-30 season, with top-eight finishes in the MVP race in six of the last seven seasons, Mookie is the safest of … Betts. If he successfully handles some second base at a time of need for L.A., that will only add to his MVP narrative.

Giants: Logan Webb, RHP, Cy Young
The Giants’ top prospect, left-hander Kyle Harrison, could debut this year, but it’s not clear that he would be given enough innings to meaningfully vie for the Rookie of the Year. A Webb run at the Cy seems more realistic. Over the last two seasons, he has a 2.96 ERA and 138 ERA+ in 340 2/3 innings. Among those with at least 300 innings in that span, his ERA+ ranks 11th in MLB.

Padres: Juan Soto, OF, MVP
This Padres team is loaded with stars, but considering Soto is only entering his age-24 season and has already accumulated 23.2 career bWAR, it’s hard not to like his chances of one day winning the MVP -- possibly very soon. He’s coming off a strange, power-sapped season, but perhaps after a full spring with San Diego, he’ll be ready to settle in and put up a season more in line with his MVP-worthy 2021.

Rockies: Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rookie of the Year
Easy call. He’s the No. 25 prospect in MLB and as the Rockies’ everyday shortstop, the Rox rook with the clearest breakout potential in 2023. With a lack of obvious alternatives for the position, Colorado will give Tovar every opportunity to figure it out and stick at the position.