Evaluating Vlad Jr.'s Triple Crown chances

We have plenty of evaluative tools at our disposal these days -- so many ways to measure a player’s impact on his team and beyond. The Triple Crown, leading one’s league in homers, RBIs and batting average, is one of the older measuring sticks out there. And the 2021 season, thus far, features a very strong candidate.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. currently is second in all of baseball in RBIs (66), tied for second in homers (26) and third in batting average (.336), second in the AL.

The last player to win a batting Triple Crown was Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Before that, it hadn’t been done since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.

The youngest Triple Crown winner was Ted Williams in 1942, his age-23 season. Guerrero, who is 22 this entire season, would be the youngest. (Ty Cobb completed the feat in his age-22 season in 1909, but the RBI wasn’t an official statistic.) Here’s a look at some context for being in Triple Crown contention entering July, with help from the Elias Sports Bureau.

Close to or leading his league

Since RBIs became official in 1920, there had been 61 prior instances of a player ranking in the top three in his league in the three categories entering July. Of those 61, six went on to win their league’s Triple Crown: ‘67 Yastrzemski, 1956 Mickey Mantle, 1937 Joe Medwick, 1933 Chuck Klein, 1925 Rogers Hornsby and ‘22 Hornsby.

But there have been those 55 others, too. Since 2010, we’ve seen five players be top three in their league in the three categories entering July prior to Guerrero, and none completed the feat: 2019 Cody Bellinger, 2017 Aaron Judge, 2013 Cabrera, ‘13 Chris Davis and 2011 Matt Kemp.

Of course, as noted above, Guerrero’s age is part of what makes this so unique. Since 1920, only one player aged 22 or younger was top three in his league in Triple Crown categories entering July, prior to this year. That was Vern Stephens in 1943, who led the AL in RBIs and batting average, and was second in homers. He ended up playing in 137 games that year, winding up fourth in the AL in RBIs, third in homers and seventh in batting average.

There have been other young players in this range even later into a season, too. Since 1950, four players prior to 2021 had been top three in their league in the three categories entering July or later in a season at age 22 or younger.

In 2015, Bryce Harper did this, at latest through games of July 31, when he was 22 years and 288 days old. In 1978, Jack Clark did it, at latest through July 20, when he was 22 years and 252 days old. Before that, it was Al Kaline in 1955, at latest through Sept. 3, when he was 20 years and 258 days old. And before Kaline, it was 1954 Mickey Mantle, with his latest date being July 31, at 22 years and 284 days old. Those ages are noted since Guerrero will be 22 years and 201 days old at the end of this season, thus younger than Harper, Clark and Mantle.

Top three in the Majors, too

But Guerrero isn’t just top three in the AL, he’s top three in the Majors in homers, RBIs and batting average. He’s the sixth player in the Divisional Era (since 1969) to be top three in MLB in those categories entering July, joining ‘19 Bellinger, ‘13 Cabrera, 2008 Lance Berkman, 2001 Luis Gonzalez and 1970 Tony Pérez.

The only players to win an MLB Triple Crown by leading not just their league, but the Majors, are Mantle in 1956, Williams in 1942, Lou Gehrig in 1934 and Hornsby in 1925.

What’s next?

There’s still plenty of season left, but Guerrero’s great plate discipline and MVP-caliber season have put him in striking distance of adding another line to the record books.