Sizing up the Reds after first quarter
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This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
CINCINNATI -- It's already just past the quarter point of the 2023 season for the Reds, and perhaps there have been enough games to get a sense of where this team could be headed. Or have there?
Through 45 games entering Sunday, the Reds are 19-26. At this time last season, the Reds were 15-30. Of course, it's a low bar to clear from that 100-loss team, but there does appear to be a sense of progress from 2022. Still numerous issues need improving.
“Overall, none of us are satisfied," Reds manager David Bell said. "I didn’t know we were at the quarter mark of the season because it’s very much day-to-day, pitch-to-pitch. That’s really our focus. That’s what we talk about. It’s very present. If we take care of those things, we will get to where we need to be."
Here is where the Reds currently are in a few categories:
Hitting
There were concerns entering this season about whether the Reds would score enough runs, and that is playing out in some different ways. They entered Sunday ranked 20th in MLB in runs and 17th in average (.247). They're also ranked 28th in home runs and last in road homers.
On the plus side, the offense has a .314 average on balls in play (BABIP), which is ranked sixth -- so they are finding holes and getting hits. Jake Fraley has regularly come up big in run-producing situations. He leads the team with 32 RBIs, is tied for the team lead with five homers and is batting .452 with runners in scoring position.
Now the Reds need to get more hits for extra bases as they rank tied for fifth lowest with only 32 percent of their hits going for extras.
Baserunning
With the new rules outlawing infield shifts and bigger bases, being aggressive on the bases was stressed from the start of Spring Training by Bell and the coaching staff. That is reflected in their having the second-most times being caught stealing (15). They are 13th in total steals.
Where the aggressive approach really pays off is advancing more than one base on hits. According to Baseball Reference, they are second-best in baseball at extra-base taken percentage.
A catch-all baserunning statistic by Fangraphs that covers steals, caught stealing and other baserunning plays has Cincinnati ranked 10th overall.
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Rotation
It hasn't been a strong start for Reds starters, who are ranked 29th out of 30 clubs with a 6.18 ERA and last in innings pitched.
Hunter Greene, who received a six-year, $53 million contract last month, has been inconsistent and unable to go deeper into games because of long innings. Graham Ashcraft got off to a strong start but has been hit hard in two of his last three starts. Nick Lodolo is out with a stress reaction in his left tibia for an extended period.
The group's most experienced pitcher, Luke Weaver, has also been inconsistent but has good stuff and is a dependable fourth starter. For the fifth spot, Luis Cessa struggled and was released. Veteran journeyman Ben Lively and lefty Brandon Williamson (No. 10 prospect) are getting opportunities to fill the gaps and it might not be long before another lefty, Andrew Abbott (No. 6 prospect), gets a callup from Louisville.
Bullpen
Ranked high in ERA, this area has been one of the nicest surprises of the season to this point.
A group with several non-roster players from camp, they have largely done a nice job of picking up the innings the rotation hasn't provided. But it could soon come at a cost with workhorses Derek Law and Fernando Cruz currently on the injured list.
In his second season, Alexis Díaz has taken the closer role and run with it impressively. Except for two appearances, Lucas Sims has been exceptional.
Intangibles
Obviously impossible to quantify, Jonathan India has often used the term "gritty" to describe the team's identity. There have been some nice comeback wins. Hitters and pitchers have often picked each other up with a team-oriented approach.
This team has been a tighter group with a better vibe on the field and in the clubhouse. That was all hard to come by in '22 after a dismal 3-22 start, following a Spring Training roster teardown and the beginning of a rebuilding effort.
"What I am happy about is the approach of our team, the work ethic, the way they’ve gone out and played together," Bell said. "It’s very important to us. It’s important to me. They’re very supportive of one another and they push each other. That is all I could ever ask for."