Twins' stunning deal with Correa sends ripples through AL

To those who say nothing good happens after midnight, the Twins would like to submit their reportedly stunning deal with superstar shortstop Carlos Correa. News of the deal came out at around 1 a.m. ET on Saturday, when most of us had the good sense to be sleeping. We woke to news of the biggest free-agent deal in Twins franchise history -- a deal that only seemed possible in the wildest dreams of the Minnesota faithful.

So, yes, things have changed a little bit in the baseball world now that Correa has agreed to a reported three-year, $105.3 million contract (with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons). This deal has ripple effects across the American League.

Let’s examine four of them here.

1. No more making fun of the AL Central!

In the last five full seasons (so not counting that wonky 60-game special in 2020), the AL Central champion has finished ahead of the second-place club by an average of 11 1/2 games. And in each of the last four full seasons, either three or four teams out of five have finished with a losing record.

Not exactly a titanic struggle. Central champs have generally beefed up their records (and, therefore, their playoff seeding) by beating up on rebuilding ballclubs.

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It sure doesn’t look that way this year. Chicago, which finished 13 games ahead of second-place Cleveland last year, remains the division favorite. But the White Sox reserve of talent at the top end of the farm system has dried up a bit. And the actions of the Tigers (who just added Michael Pineda to their rotation after already inking lefty Eduardo Rodriguez and shortstop Javier Báez) and Twins significantly improve the night-to-night competitiveness in the division.

Can the Twins win with a rotation of Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Randy Dobnak? Well, uh, we’ll get back to you on that. But even if the rotation does not take shape, the offensive floor of a club featuring Correa, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, Max Kepler, Gary Sánchez, a (hopefully) healthy Byron Buxton and a potential Alex Kirilloff breakout would seem to be quite lofty.

Speaking of high floors, the two quieter Central clubs -- the Royals and Guardians -- have one. Kansas City, which brought back Zack Greinke, has improved its winning percentage each of the last three seasons, and soon Bobby Witt Jr. will join a lineup with a lot of power and speed. Cleveland has been curiously silent on the signing front (aside from hanging the new Guardians sign above the Progressive Field scoreboard) but, with Shane Bieber back, should have one of the best rotations in baseball.

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Long story short: Nothing will come easy for the Sox in their bid to repeat.

2. Houston, we have a … difficult division.

The Astros won’t have it easy, either. They won the last four full-season division titles by leads of 21 games (2017), six games (2018), 10 games (2019) and five games (2021). They might have the goods to win the West again, but losing another linchpin of their recent successes will be yet another challenge for Dusty Baker’s crew.

As Correa’s market dragged on, it had appeared the door might still be open for him to return to Houston, despite earlier offseason assumptions to the contrary. Correa wound up signing a reasonable deal with the Twins, and it’s shocking that the Astros would let a superstar get away for a third straight year (following the departures of Gerrit Cole and George Springer) at such a price.

At least they'll have Justin Verlander in a young rotation that helped pitch them back to the World Series last year. But as a 39-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery, Verlander is a bit of a science experiment. Can the Astros, who are expected to fill Correa’s shortstop slot with prospect Jeremy Peña, retain their edge in a division featuring the resurrected Rangers, the return of Mike Trout and -- perhaps most important -- a Mariners team that has amplified its lineup and added the reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to its stash after a surprising 90-win season? We’ve learned not to put anything past them, but the ground does seem to be shifting in the West.

3. The Yankees will be good, but …

The point of the Hot Stove season is to get better, and the Yankees look better today than they did at the conclusion of their disappointing 2021 season. Josh Donaldson brings an edge, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa plus the catching tandem of Kyle Higashioka and the newly added Ben Rortvedt should make this a more defensively stable squad.

But “better” might not be enough in the loaded AL East. No one would look at the Yankees’ assemblage up the middle and in the rotation beyond Gerrit Cole (Luis Severino could be a boost but will be limited, innings-wise, after missing the better part of three seasons) and comfortably label them world-beaters. This is a team that entered the offseason in need of a shortstop, with every resource imaginable at their disposal. And yet they have totally abstained from the most dynamic free-agent shortstop class in history, now that the Red Sox have landed Trevor Story, per a source. Maybe they’ll make a big deal for the A’s Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas that makes us feel better about the rotation. In the meantime, their offseason is puzzling.

For now the Twins appear to have gotten the best of the blockbuster trade between the two clubs, because the remaining $50 million they'd committed to a 36-year-old Donaldson was freed up to make what can only be considered a sounder investment, at this stage, in Correa.

4. The AL Wild Card picture is increasingly complex.

The Correa acquisition is an example of the expanded postseason format increasing competitive behavior. A Twins team that finished 2021 with a 73-89 record and traded ace Jose Berríos to the Blue Jays could have very easily gone down the rebuild route, a la the A’s and Reds. But the first signal that they were taking this offseason seriously came when they extended Buxton rather than dealing their oft-injured but enticing center fielder. Post-lockout, in the span of a week, they added Gray, Sánchez, Gio Urshela and Correa to what was an underperforming club last year.

When you look across the league, Oakland's activity is the outlier, the only instance of obvious subtraction. With an additional playoff spot on the line and with nine AL clubs (Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, White Sox, Twins, Astros, Angels and Mariners) projected by PECOTA to finish above .500, we are set up to have a fun September.