Cabrera's confidence on the rise as '24 campaign closes

MINNEAPOLIS -- Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera has some of the nastiest stuff in the game. As his 2024 draws to a close, it seems like he’s beginning to believe it.

Cabrera allowed one earned run over five innings, but four errors cost the Marlins in Wednesday night’s 8-3 loss to the Twins at Target Field to hand them their 100th defeat. Cabrera struck out five, walked just one and reached 99 mph for the fifth time this season.

“Cabbie had some of his best stuff that he's had all year,” manager Skip Schumaker said. “Once again, [he] looked really good, didn't hurt himself by walks or really anything tonight. [He] had the guys put the ball in play. Guys made really good plays behind him in the outfield, not so much in the infield tonight. Just one of those tough games.”

Though Cabrera had an injury scare while stretching to cover first base on a fielder’s choice in the third inning, Schumaker pulled him after just 79 pitches because the righty felt tightness in his arm and the club didn’t want to push him at the end of the season.

Minnesota couldn’t figure out Cabrera early on, going down in order through the first six batters -- three via strikeout. After Willi Castro’s leadoff double in the third, Cabrera fielded consecutive comebackers. The first went without a hitch, but on the second, Cabrera’s throw deflected off Castro, who was caught straying too far off the bag. Three batters later, Trevor Larnach singled in two runs.

In the fourth, Byron Buxton crushed Cabrera’s first-pitch 96.4 mph four-seamer for a game-tying leadoff homer. Cabrera worked around back-to-back errors by infielders in the fifth thanks to left fielder Griffin Conine’s inning-ending 7-4 double play.

“He throws hard, obviously,” Twins second baseman Brooks Lee said. “He’s got a great changeup that mimics the fastball good, a ton of sink. That’s probably the best changeup we’ve seen that has much -- it looks like a power sinker almost. We got to him a little bit, but he’s a great pitcher. A great power arm.”

While Cabrera’s 4.95 season ERA doesn’t stand out, he finished 2024 on a high note. Over his final 10 starts dating back to Aug. 4, Cabrera compiled a 3.57 ERA with four quality starts. More importantly, he lowered his BB/9 rate from 5.40 before this stretch to 4.08 after it. Take out last Thursday’s outlier outing against the Dodgers (7 ER, 2 1/3 IP), and those numbers are even better:

Before Aug. 4: 6.65 ERA
Since Aug. 4 minus that Dodgers start: 2.49 ERA, 3.37 BB/9

Despite opening the season on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement and being sidelined with the same diagnosis again from May 8-July 7, Cabrera matched a career high in starts (20). He fell 3 1/3 innings shy of his single-season career high set in 2023 (99 2/3); he has yet to reach triple-digit frames in a single season.

“I will say there were a lot of ups and down this season, no doubt about it, but definitely it was a learning experience for me,” Cabrera said via interpreter Luis Dorante Jr. “And I learned that I have to come in ready next season and be able to perform the whole full season.”

This is a critical juncture in the 26-year-old Cabrera’s career. He will be Super 2 arbitration-eligible this offseason and has no Minor League options remaining. His name has come up in trade rumors in the past, and this winter should be no different.

Barring deals and injury setbacks, Miami’s starting-pitching depth in 2025 could feature ace Sandy Alcantara, left-handers Ryan Weathers, Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett as well as right-handers Cabrera, Eury Pérez (around the All-Star break), Max Meyer, Valente Bellozo, Roddery Muñoz and Sixto Sánchez.

“I thought the last 10-12 starts was more of who we think he is,” Schumaker said. “Every single coach and strength coach and trainer and teammate has tried to build him up, to show him and tell him who he is, but I think he's now starting to finally believe who he is, and having more and more confidence against some really good playoff teams, especially in the second half.

“I think the last game was a hiccup, and I was hoping it was going to be a hiccup coming into tonight. He was throwing the ball as good as anybody in the league, 99 mph, 98 mph with a really good changeup. He's spinning the ball really good.”