How E-Rod's opt-out complicates Deadline scenarios
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When Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for the Tigers on Wednesday, talent evaluators throughout the sport will watch closely.
Rodriguez is making his third MLB start since missing more than a month due to a pulley rupture in his left index finger. The 30-year-old left-hander is one of the top starting pitcher trade candidates, thanks to a 2.70 ERA that ranks fourth in the Majors among those who have thrown at least 70 innings.
But Rodriguez’s trade value remains difficult to assess, due to an opt-out clause he can activate following the 2023 World Series.
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Rodriguez is in the second season of a five-year, $77 million contract. At the end of this season, three years and $49 million will remain. If Rodriguez pitches as well in the second half as he did in the first, he’ll likely exercise the opt-out and sign a larger contract on the open market.
That’s a potential complication for teams interested in Rodriguez ahead of the Aug. 1 Trade Deadline.
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As one executive observed this week, there’s downside risk in trading for Rodriguez: If he pitches well, you’ll probably lose him; if he struggles or returns to the IL, the acquiring team may have added $49 million in future payroll.
To navigate the uncertainty, MLB’s collective bargaining agreement provides teams with a limited amount of flexibility.
Teams are permitted to include contingent cash considerations in a trade, dependent on if the opt-out is exercised. In other words, the Tigers could say to an acquiring team, “If E-Rod stays with you beyond this season, we will pay a specific dollar amount of the $49 million.”
That strategy would help Detroit obtain a higher quality package of prospects in return.
However, teams cannot make players to be named later contingent on whether a player opts out.
Thus, no matter what, Rodriguez will be a more nuanced Deadline case than starting pitchers on straightforward, expiring contracts like his Tigers teammate Michael Lorenzen or White Sox right-handers Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn.