How Cease's adjustments helped steady ship for San Diego's staff

BALTIMORE -- Sometimes, a no-hitter comes out of nowhere. The Padres have never thrown one like that. But they’ve been on the wrong end of a few -- where everything clicks, and an unlikely starting pitcher makes history.

Dylan Cease’s no-hitter did not come out of nowhere. Quite the opposite, in fact. Cease’s stuff has been no-hit caliber for most of July. He’s been so good, in fact, that when Luis Arraez -- who famously broke up Cease’s previous career-long no-hit bid -- recently found himself in an elevator with Cease, he told him he’d throw a no-hitter soon enough. Arraez was proven right on Thursday in Washington.

Every no-hitter is significant -- no matter who throws it and when. It’s still baseball history. But in the scope of the 2024 Padres’ season, Cease’s no-hitter -- and his recent ascendance back to one of the sport’s most dominant arms -- is especially meaningful. That’s because, right now, Cease is pitching like a Game 1 starter.

Yes, there’s a long way to go before Cease would take that mantle in a playoff series. But the Padres’ rotation picture looks a lot clearer with a dominant version of Cease at the front of it.

“It’s been huge,” said manager Mike Shildt before the Padres’ series-opening 6-4 victory in Baltimore on Friday night. “He’s set the tone for our starters, and guys are following.”

The entire San Diego rotation has been excellent lately. But behind Cease, there are question marks. Matt Waldron and Michael King are in their first seasons as big league starting pitchers. Both recently passed their career highs in innings. Joe Musgrove is working his way back from elbow inflammation. Yu Darvish is on the restricted list.

There are also potential answers to those question marks. Waldron and King have shown no signs of slowing. Musgrove could make a rehab start next week. A Darvish return hasn’t been ruled out. And Randy Vásquez has made serious progress, filling in at the back-end.

Perhaps most notably, Tuesday’s 3 p.m. PT Trade Deadline looms, and the Padres can still add one more starting arm to that mix. It wouldn’t necessarily need to be an ace, because they already have Cease.

“Everyone’s trying to hold this thing together,” Musgrove said of the rotation. “He’s been that rock for us the last couple weeks.”

Cease became the first pitcher on record (since at least 1901) to post a three-start stretch in which he’d recorded 30 strikeouts and two hits or fewer. He’s also recorded six outings of at least six innings and one hit or fewer, the most on record in a single season.

Cease’s slider has become downright untouchable. His fastball, meanwhile, averaged 98.3 mph on Thursday, the hardest he’s thrown it in any start this season, coming after a pair of starts in which the pitch averaged 98.2.

“As far as no-hit stuff?” pitching coach Ruben Niebla said. “He’s had it for a couple outings.”

Before the All-Star break, Cease and Niebla worked to tweak Cease’s delivery, bringing his glove closer to the body. At first, it was meant to disguise his pitches. But as Cease began to throw with his new delivery, he found himself significantly more comfortable and consistent with his release.

“I was like, ‘I think this is a double whammy here,’” Cease said. “I think we’ve really found something.”

Niebla broke down the mechanics of it.

“He’s basically getting more aligned,” Niebla said. “He’s found some velo within that adjustment. His breaking ball has been more consistently getting to lanes, in and out. Just overall, he feels more compact. Really feel that he’s taken the next step with this adjustment.”

Meaning there’s reason to believe Cease’s dominance is sustainable. Maybe not one-hit-per-start dominance. But Cease has a deep enough track record where it’s not unrealistic to think he could front a playoff-caliber rotation.

The Padres have their ace -- a true ace, which is more than most teams can say. Now for the rest of that rotation ...

In that hypothetical postseason rotation -- or at least the rotation the Padres would use down the stretch -- Waldron and King are useful options for the 3 and 4 spots. Musgrove, ideally, is a No. 2. But he hasn’t pitched like it this season amid injuries. Darvish has Game 1 upside but can’t be relied upon right now.

The ceiling is a group capable of winning multiple playoff series. The floor is… very low, considering the question marks.

Which makes Tuesday’s Deadline all the more interesting.