What All-Stars tell us about the Draft

All-Star rosters always yield plenty of information to break down, and this year is no exception. With the MLB Draft beginning two days before the Midsummer Classic and also taking place in Denver, there's a logical question: Where were these All-Stars drafted?

Forty-five of the 67 All-Stars on the initial American League and National League rosters (announced July 4) were drafted, with the others signing initially as free agents. Those rosters also feature 22 players born outside the 50 states, with 21 of those encapsulating the non-drafted players. One international-born player, Carlos Correa, was drafted, and one American-born player, Alex Reyes, signed as an amateur free agent instead of being drafted.

With the replacements announced Saturday, it’s now 54 of 77 All-Stars who were drafted, with one additional non-drafted player: Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta.

Here’s a look at what those 54 drafted All-Stars tell us about the Draft, and especially Sunday’s first round. Note that the graphics below are based off the original 67 All-Stars announced for 2021.

The Draft is a great source of All-Stars
The MLB Draft is certainly different from those of the other major sports in that players don’t reach the highest professional level as quickly after being selected. That being said, there’s no question that being drafted highly is also associated with future performance and All-Star selection, based off this year’s initial rosters.

Of the 54 2021 All-Stars who were drafted, 24 were taken in either the first round or supplemental round before the second. There are 11 top-15 picks total, with eight of those players having been taken in the top five. Those eight are Gerrit Cole (first, 2011), Correa (first, 2012), Kris Bryant (second, 2013), Mike Zunino (third, 2012), Carlos Rodón (third, 2014), Kevin Gausman (fourth, 2012), Kyle Schwarber (fourth, 2014) and Buster Posey (fifth, 2008).

Of the 30 outside of the first round, 13 were taken in Rounds 2-5, and 17 after that. The latest-drafted player to be an All-Star this year is Angels first baseman Jared Walsh, who was taken 1,185th overall in the 39th round in 2015 out of the University of Georgia.

Late-round gems exist, too
That said with the first-round dominance, as with any sport’s draft, you can always find stars taken later on, too. Some of the biggest names on this year’s rosters were selected in the fifth round or later. We can see this on the below scatter plot, which looks at 2021 All-Stars with at least 10 career WAR, per Baseball Reference, and where those players were drafted by overall number.

Mookie Betts, who has the third-highest career WAR of any 2021 All-Star behind Mike Trout and Max Scherzer, was drafted 172nd overall by the Red Sox in the fifth round in 2011. Jacob deGrom, who has the fourth-highest WAR of the group, was a ninth-round pick by the Mets in 2010, 272nd overall.

Others who stand out on the chart include Michael Brantley (seventh round), Marcus Semien (sixth round), Brandon Woodruff (11th round) and J.D. Martinez (20th round).

Of the top 12 2021 All-Stars by career WAR, five were taken in the first round: Trout, Scherzer, Posey and the two No. 1 overall picks, Correa and Cole. Two were taken in the second round: Nolan Arenado and Freddie Freeman, and another two in the fourth round, Brandon Crawford and Yadier Molina. The other three were noted above: Betts, deGrom and Brantley.

Future All-Stars on display beginning Sunday
With the Draft and All-Star Week overlapping for the first time, there’s even more energy around this midseason point than ever before. And based on the 2021 roster data, there’s no question that a handful of future All-Stars will be drafted in Denver over the next few days. With the high proportion of stars that came from the first round, be sure to keep a special eye on Sunday’s selections to mark the beginning of some future All-Stars’ professional careers.