Pitchers share blame in allowing steals
This story was excerpted from Juan Toribio’s Dodgers Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
With beat reporter Juan Toribio on vacation this week, MLB.com analyst Mike Petriello stepped in to put together this week’s Dodgers newsletter.
It’s long been clear that one of the weaknesses of the 2023 Dodgers has been a near-total inability to prevent the opposition from stealing bases. Entering play on Wednesday, the team’s 76 steals allowed were by far the most in the Majors, a whopping 13 more than the second-place White Sox -- and already more than the 68 they allowed all of last season.
It’s not exactly a secret, either. Earlier this year, manager Dave Roberts admitted that “we [have] got to be better” in controlling the running game.
The two primary Los Angeles catchers (Will Smith, 10% caught stealing rate, and Austin Barnes, 9%) have taken their share of the heat about the situation. But, is it really all their fault?
After all, Smith and Barnes were the same regular catchers last season, and the 2022 Dodgers had a caught-stealing rate only slightly worse than the league average. Smith’s pop time of 1.89 seconds this year is actually slightly _better _than his 1.93 last year. As for Barnes, even though his pop time of 2.00 seconds is slightly below average, it’s also better than the 2.06 he posted a year ago. The catchers aren’t getting rid of the ball slower. They’re doing it more quickly -- they’re just finding less success.
That’s largely due to the new rules that have motivated teams to be more aggressive on the base paths, of course. But it’s also about the team’s pitchers, who are simply not putting their catchers in a position to succeed.
To illustrate that, we can look at a recently-released Statcast metric, Caught Stealing Above Average. Instead of treating every stolen base opportunity the same, as a simple caught stealing rate would, it looks at the particulars of each chance -- the speed of the baserunner, the details of the speed and location of the pitch, the handedness of the pitcher and batter, and how far off first base the runner is when the catcher receives the ball, etc. -- and grades it appropriately.
For example, when Arizona speedster Corbin Carroll -- something like baseball’s fastest man -- stole second against Smith back in April off of the notoriously slow-to-the-plate Noah Syndergaard, Smith didn’t even bother to throw. That’s because he was seen as having had a mere 15% chance to throw the runner out, which is another way of saying “more than 8 times out of 10, given this opportunity, a catcher is not getting this runner.” That’s one of 11 times this year the Dodgers have had a stolen base against where the catcher didn’t even make a throw, tied for second-most.
If you put all of those opportunities (sticking just to second base for now) together, what you’ll find is that the Dodgers catchers have been presented with opportunities that are likely to lead to successful throw-outs a mere 14% of the time -- which is tied for lowest in the Majors. That’s entirely about what happens before the ball even reaches the catcher’s glove, and what’s happening is that by the time the catcher gets the ball, the play is pretty much decided.
Lowest estimated caught stealing rate (at 2B)
14% -- Dodgers
14% -- Astros
16% -- Marlins
17% -- [several teams tied]
If you were watching the national ESPN broadcast last Sunday evening, you’d have seen that issue taken to an extreme in the third inning.
That’s when Gleyber Torres took second base on a play that will go down as a stolen base against Smith, despite the fact that announcer Karl Ravech noted that Torres was “paid no attention by [pitcher] Bobby Miller.” He was correct to say it. Torres got off to such a good jump that the play was given a 0% estimated caught stealing, which is to say that Torres was 38 feet off of first base when the pitch was released and 52 feet off the base -- or _more than halfway to second _-- by the time Smith got the ball. That combination of events has never led to a caught stealing. It didn’t there, either.
That’s not to say that the Dodgers catchers are stellar at this, of course, because if they were estimated to throw out 14% of runners at second, they’ve in actuality managed just 9% -- though that’s primarily Barnes, because Smith, at just -1 Caught Stealing Above Average, rates as middle of the pack. But the next time you see Smith, a likely All-Star, get tagged with a caught stealing on a play when he doesn’t even attempt a throw, remember: preventing steals is a team effort.