Shohei to Seattle? Why a Deadline deal is tricky

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- Mariners fans dared to dream about the possibility of Shohei Ohtani making the pitch to permanently call the Pacific Northwest home when chanting “Come to Seattle!” during the All-Star Game. Might they get their wish even sooner than when Ohtani reaches free agency this offseason?

The Angels are reportedly in “listening mode” on Ohtani ahead of the Aug. 1 Trade Deadline after spiraling into the All-Star break, tumbling behind the Mariners in the American League standings.

But just how realistic would it be for Seattle’s front office to land arguably the most unique player in baseball history?

Even beyond the challenges of trading within the division, let’s preface this by acknowledging that Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto used to work for Angels owner Arte Moreno as the GM in Los Angeles, and his abrupt resignation in 2015 still lingers in this AL West rivalry.

Since Dipoto took over in Seattle shortly after, these teams have never made a trade. So, even if they were to put their pasts aside, there’s no way Seattle would pull it off without paying a premium, in both prospect capital and MLB-ready talent.

The Angels are said to be asking for multiple prospects in the MLB Pipeline Top 100 range, of which the Mariners have four: Harry Ford (No. 25), Cole Young (No. 56), Bryan Woo (No. 92) and Gabriel Gonzalez (No. 96).

And given that the Angels haven’t been able to develop starting pitching -- arguably the leading factor in why they haven’t reached the postseason since 2014 -- they’d certainly ask for an established, young arm like Logan Gilbert or George Kirby, and probably at least one (or more) who are on the doorstep. Seattle’s young pitching depth, even with injuries to Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales, is as coveted a commodity in long-term roster building.

Because even if the Angels could cope with the potentially poor optics of dealing Ohtani, their justification would be to yield a foundation to stock a farm system that entered 2023 ranked third-worst in baseball, while also keeping the big league team competitive.

If it sounds like an unprecedented asking price, maybe it is. But if the Angels were to absorb a significant amount of what remains on Ohtani’s $30 million salary, they’d probably open the field of suitors and could net a far grander return.

For the Mariners -- or the Dodgers, Yankees, Giants and other would-be Ohtani bidders this winter -- there’s also the upside potential of giving him an up-front look to the organization for two months before he hits the open market, especially if they can mount another postseason run.

Yet, discussing a Shohei-to-Seattle blockbuster might be getting way too ahead considering the very blunt fact that the Mariners have hovered near .500 all season. Dipoto’s front office has typically approached the Deadline reactionary to the club’s standing -- and always with the long term in mind.

There’s likely no shot they would’ve traded for Luis Castillo last year without a 14-game win streak that propelled them back into contention. In 2021, when they were playing above expectations but still on the outside looking in, they operated on a buy-and-sell model, notably with the trade that sent Kendall Graveman to Houston. In a full sell in 2020, they acquired Ty France, Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash and Taylor Trammell from the Padres when they were promising but unproven.

This year, they badly need another bat, and potentially another starter, depending on how long Gonzales will be sidelined with a left forearm strain. Ohtani, of course, would fill those voids hugely.

But given the relationship between these teams, how they philosophically operate, that Dipoto almost never acquires players who are straight rentals and that Moreno might have apprehension over the optics of dealing a star, this particular transaction seems unlikely.

Yet the point of hypotheticals during Deadline season is the fun.