Any way you add it up, Bednar is an elite closer

Rich Hill has been around long enough to know what an All-Star closer looks like. He’s played with quite a few, from Kenley Jansen to Jonathan Papelbon. In his estimation, David Bednar is in that class.

"In my opinion, he's one of the best,” said Hill. “I’d put him up there with any of the guys that I've played with, who arguably could be and probably will be Hall of Famers. … That mix of pitches that he is able to use and execute is special. I know it's early for David and his career, but you can see that conviction and that confidence and that's something that you want in your closer and that's something that we're fortunate to have."

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Bednar has, as Hill assessed, been one of baseball's best firemen. Heading into the break, he's got a 1.27 ERA, 42 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings and 17 saves in 18 opportunities. His Baseball Savant page is filled with red. The matter of how Bednar, now a two-time All-Star, goes about closing games, however, is relatively unique.

“I don’t know if there’s been any elite big league closers that have that mix,” said catcher Austin Hedges.

“He’s got three plus pitches that he can throw for strikes in any situation in any count,” added catcher Jason Delay. “A lot of closers in the league rely pretty heavily on one pitch or even two pitches, but with him being able to have that pitch ability to throw three pitches for strikes, it gives him another advantage.”

Just about every closer in baseball relies on the heat, and Bednar is no exception. Bednar throws his four-seamer, which sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, 57.4 percent of the time. With a run value of -7, the four-seamer has been Bednar’s best pitch, and a deeper dive into the numbers backs that statement up further.

Across 80 plate appearances, opposing batters have a .160 batting average against Bednar’s four-seamer. Minimum 50 plate appearances, Bednar’ .202 wOBA ranks first in the league, while his .218 xwOBA ranks second among all pitchers.

“He has the ability to throw it right down the middle and get swings and misses, which is rare,” Hedges said. “He can throw it up when he needs to. He can throw it inside and outside when he needs to. He can even throw it down if he needs to do so to play it off the split finger.”

On the subject of the splitter, that pitch has historically been a weapon for the right-hander. Opponents may have a .429 batting average and .524 slugging percentage against Bednar’s splitter this season, but in terms of expected stats, opponents have a .234 expected batting average and .325 slugging percentage. Bednar’s splitter had a run value of -4 in each of his first two seasons with the Pirates.

“He’s one of the guys that can throw the split for a strike, too,” Hedges said. “For a lot of guys, it’s usually a bounce and [a] pitch for [a] chase, but there are times when we can throw that thing behind in the count and he’s just going to execute it to the bottom of the zone. In the worst case, it almost acts like a two-seam fastball, so it’s like it’s a ground-ball pitch. That’s the nice thing; we can get swings-and-misses and get weak contact.”

The magic of Bednar’s pitch mix relies in his ability to mirror the four-seamer and splitter with his curveball. The curveball’s effectiveness -- run value of -2, .176 opponent batting average, .206 opponent slugging percentage -- is due in part to how it plays off his four-seamer and splitter.

Bednar’s four-seam fastball and splitter spin at 1 o'clock but his curveball spin is at 7:30. This means, then, that the four-seam/splitter and curveball spin in nearly the exact opposite direction as one another, making it difficult for hitters to decipher which pitch Bednar is throwing.

“The curveball plays off that heater at the top of the zone so well and it’s got such a big speed difference,” Delay explained.

Add it all up, and Bednar is a well-deserved All-Star for the second straight season.