Defensive wiz Varsho stepping into his power

TORONTO -- How you see Daulton Varsho depends so much on the lens you choose to look through.

This is who he’s always been, though, a brilliant defender who can hit 20 homers and create some chaos on the bases. There’s no mystery to it. With another year of distance from the trade that brought him to Toronto and a full-time move to center field -- where he’s always belonged -- it feels we’re all finally seeing the same player.

Long before Kyle Schwarber launched his third home run and the Blue Jays’ bullpen collapsed yet again in a 10-9 loss to the Phillies on Tuesday night, Varsho started the Blue Jays with a bang -- a 427-foot two-run homer off the batter’s eye in center at Rogers Centre. It was his 18th of the season, leaving him two shy of his third straight 20-homer season.

Coming over in that deal for Gabriel Moreno -- who was, and still is, one of the best young catchers in the sport -- warped how Varsho was viewed by some early on. It was understandable. Elite defense takes time to reach out and grab you.

As the Blue Jays have searched for offense, the corner outfield spots are typically a good place to start. That’s where Teoscar Hernández was. That’s where José Bautista was. That’s where the fun has been.

But now in center, it’s easier to see Varsho for who he is, not who he isn’t.

“He’s the best outfielder in baseball,” manager John Schneider has said a dizzying number of times this season, never running out of praise for Varsho's defense.

Instead, compare him to someone like Kevin Kiermaier, one of the best defenders of his generation, who seems to have passed the torch off to Varsho in Toronto. No outfielder in baseball tops Varsho’s Fielding Run Value of +16. He gets some of the best jumps in the game and he's fearless at the wall, whether he’s climbing it or slamming into it at full speed. He’s the type of defender who we’ll talk about 20 years from now.

There are missing pieces, obviously -- most notably the .298 on-base percentage Varsho carried into Tuesday’s game.

Consider the basics of Varsho’s profile as a speedy 5-foot-8 outfielder who plays elite defense. Typically, that player’s ticket to sticking in the big leagues is getting on base at a high rate, and maybe stealing a few bags along the way. Varsho’s offensive profile has far more highs and lows, though, with his power instead offsetting a lack of day-to-day impact at the plate.

The result? The second-most valuable player on this team, by FanGraphs' WAR.

Varsho entered Tuesday valued at 3.3 fWAR and has a shot to eclipse 4 WAR by the end the season. In 2022, just prior to the trade to Toronto, he was worth 4.4 fWAR. Even though it comes in a package that you don’t often see, that’s an excellent big leaguer.

“He’s such a dynamic player who just gets overlooked and underrated,” Schneider said. “You look up at the end of the year and he’s just a really, really good player.”

There’s always the temptation for more, though. What if Varsho could put up a .340 on-base percentage? What if he could hit 30 homers? But then again, what if Vladdy could steal 60 bags? Let’s not get greedy here.

“He’s strong, really strong,” Schneider said. “When his swing is in sync, working from the ground up, he’s as good as anybody. He generates a lot of bat speed and when he’s swinging at pitches in his zone, he can hit the ball 108, 109 mph. He has all the power in the world.”

If there’s a realistic path to Varsho’s offensive value stepping in the direction of his defense, it’s his platoon splits. Earlier in his career, Varsho hit righties better, but that began to shift a year ago. It’s been more blatant in 2024, with Varsho entering Tuesday with an .852 OPS against lefties and a .680 mark against righties.

“It’s weird; you can look at some others. I think Schwarber is better against lefties this year. A lot of it comes down to approach,” Schneider said. “Left-on-left, especially with a left-handed starter, you’re usually eliminating one pitch. You’re probably eliminating a changeup. Varsh has a really good idea of where he can handle the ball, whether it’s something close to him or staying on a breaking ball away.”

Fresh off an .830 OPS in August -- and a .360 OBP -- it seems to be working, and this is what makes Varsho such a tantalizing player. Already an excellent player, it’s still so easy to see the next level for Varsho.