Hudson may be falling back in race for rotation spot

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- So intense is the roster crunch the Cardinals face in the final weeks of Spring Training that when asked recently how many players worthy of heading north with the team might not do so, manager Oliver Marmol’s response was nearly an entire starting team: eight.

For the Cardinals, having that many more Major League-caliber players than Major League roster spots is a good problem to have, one they’ll likely benefit from in the long haul. For those individuals on the roster periphery, it makes these final Grapefruit League games matter even more: Every pitch is an audition, every at-bat an opportunity to change someone’s mind.

• Projecting the Cardinals' Opening Day roster

That context colored Sunday as particularly important for Dakota Hudson, who spent it being hit around before the Cardinals came back to claim an 8-7 win over the Mets at Clover Park. Buried early by a five-run first, Hudson surrendered 10 hits and needed 77 pitches in 3 2/3 innings, continuing a tough spring for the 28-year-old right-hander.

“I’ve had some [intentions] from early in the spring that I’m kind of back-tracking on as I’ve gone,” Hudson said. “But I feel like I’m on the right track. It’s just frustrating because it’s not showing up as results, at least lately.”

Hudson profiled as the Cardinals’ sixth starter entering camp. But he has been outpitched by Jake Woodford and others in Grapefruit League play, and he might not get another opportunity to make his case for the Opening Day roster.

“You never want to put too much weight on one start, but we want to see an ability to gain in one area and not lose in another,” Marmol said. “[It’s about] him continuing to put his full game together: pounding the zone with multiple pitches and staying out of deep counts, that type of thing.”

With five named starters and seven returning relievers, there isn’t much sense in keeping both Hudson and Woodford -- who both have Minor League options -- up in limited bullpen roles to begin the year. Both will certainly contribute over the course of the 162-game season. Starting depth has never been more important; no team in baseball used fewer than eight starters last season. But in the short term, somebody appears ticketed for Triple-A Memphis.

Perhaps it is Hudson, who struggled to the tune of a career-worst 4.45 ERA and an ugly 78 to 61 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 139 2/3 innings last year in his return from Tommy John surgery. The command issues weren’t new (pre-injury, Hudson led National League pitchers in walks in 2019 with 86), but without great feel for his signature sinker, Hudson’s ground-ball rate also sank to a career low. The issues compounded. His results suffered. By the end of the year, Hudson lost his rotation spot, was briefly demoted to Triple-A and was left off the Cardinals’ postseason roster.

All of which made Hudson the type of player whose stock would’ve benefited from a really strong spring. And though he arrived in camp with a revamped mindset and newfound appetite for analytics, that has not happened.

“In my mind, I’m still a starter,” Hudson said. “I’ve had a lot of success starting over the years. It’s just about getting back into the groove. It’s less about what everyone else is doing and more about getting back to putting out the product I want to put out.”

Asked if he thinks he’s forced the conversation this spring, Hudson demurred.

“I don’t know,” he said.

Spring numbers, of course, aren’t everything. But they do matter some in this context, so let’s compare:

Hudson
3 G (1 GS)
8 2/3 IP
6.23 ERA
17 hits
3/4 K/BB

Woodford
4 G (1 start)
12 2/3 IP
2.84 ERA
11/4 K/BB

There is also growing concern about why Hudson’s velocity -- which has been sitting in the low 90s -- hasn’t returned to pre-injury levels.

“There is a conversation to be had around making sure he starts to connect with the pre-injury velo, because it’s a contributor to him having more success,” Marmol said. “I think there is a little less velo on everything. We’ll circle up in the morning and start to dive into that a little bit. I’d be guessing to the ‘why’ right now. I’m curious myself.”