CHC vs. STL, July 21: Odds, Preview, Prediction
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Cubs Odds: +100
Cardinals Odds: -120
Over/Under: 8
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Odds as of noon ET and via DraftKings.
Even with three wins in five games -- one against St. Louis and two against Arizona -- the Cubs continue to slump at the plate. Waiting for them on Wednesday will be an old foe in Adam Wainwright, who has awakened his strikeout stuff in 2021 and profiles as a dangerous opponent for the Cubs’ whiff machines.
Can Kyle Hendricks keep things going in the right direction for the Cubs, or is it time once again to fade Chicago in what’s nearly a pick ’em? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Chicago Cubs
Kyle Hendricks has allowed 18 hits over his last three outings -- spanning 18 1/3 innings -- with just 10 strikeouts. Most concerning, though, is the fact that his bout with walks seemed to resurface. Hendricks has undeniably allowed a ton of traffic on the basepaths all year long, even in his “good” starts.
As for Chicago's offense, it has an 84 wRC+ over the last two weeks and just a .234 average. The Cubs have struck out too much at 24.4% and have ranked third-to-last in contact rate at 72.8%. It’s the same old story for this team after a brief hot streak in the first half -- too many swings and misses, too many bad at-bats.
St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright has been much more than St. Louis could have ever asked for, eating innings, limiting walks and quality contact and flashing some of his vintage strikeout stuff.
Wainwright is obviously no stranger to the Cubs, but this year’s outing against St. Louis’ NL Central foe was perhaps his best start of the season. He went eight scoreless innings, allowing just a hit and a walk with seven strikeouts. His improved strikeout numbers (22.9 K% is his highest since 2013) make him a formidable opponent against a whiff-happy team like the Cubs, as does his 7.8% swinging strike rate.
The Cardinals are the anti-Cubs at the plate. They’ve ranked second in contact rate over the last two weeks at 80%, with just about an average number of ground balls (43.5%) and a decent 37% hard-hit rate. It hasn’t exactly been a torrid run at the plate, but it hasn’t been bad, either.
Cubs-Cardinals Pick
Wainwright’s proven very capable in the strikeout department this year, especially against Chicago, and I don’t see any reason why he can’t miss a ton of bats on Wednesday.
St. Louis doesn’t make as much quality contact as I’d like here against a soft contact inducer like Hendricks, but he’s also been very disappointing in executing his gameplan this year. It’s also not like the Cardinals are failing to get the ball in the air with that modest ground ball lately, and they profile as a team that can exploit Hendricks’ weaknesses.
There will be moments to back the slumping Cubs, but I don’t see this as one of them. Hendricks is bringing in issues with base hits against a high-contact team, and with a few big boppers in this St. Louis lineup, which is getting hot, this could be bad news.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-120)