Cubs blanked again as '24 offense continues to confuse

CHICAGO -- There are roughly three weeks left in the season for the Cubs’ front office to get a final read on the team’s offense this year. It has been an enigmatic lineup with dramatic swings in production, giving Chicago’s analysts and decision-makers plenty to ponder over the winter months.

The Cubs’ 2-0 loss to the Yankees on Saturday offered the latest look at a valley on the other side of an impressive statistical peak. Following a 12-0 win and no-hitter on Wednesday, the North Siders were blanked over the next two contests by New York, doing damage to Chicago’s dwindling postseason odds in the process.

The loss dropped the Cubs six games behind the third Wild Card spot in the National League and lowered Chicago’s chances of making the playoffs to 0.6%, per FanGraphs.

“It’s a complicated season to figure out from the offensive standpoint,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said on Friday. “We’ve had these ups and downs during the course of the year, and they’ve been big ups and big downs, which has been difficult to reconcile intellectually.

“I think there’s some 'park effects' things that we have to take into account.”

To that last point, the environment at the Friendly Confines has not been very friendly this season. According to Statcast, Wrigley Field had a 93 ballpark factor going into Saturday’s action, ranking 29th among the 30 MLB venues in terms of offensive environment. That is a large drop from last year, when the old ballpark had a 101 park factor (ninth-highest).

The last two games have featured strong wind blowing in, making it difficult for both the Cubs or Yankees to mount much of an offensive attack.

Giancarlo Stanton (110.2 mph shot to right in the sixth) and Aaron Judge (107.7 mph drive to center in the seventh) each had potential homers knocked down. New York’s only runs came via a first-inning groundout with a runner on third, and later in the sixth when Judge stole third and scored on a throwing error by catcher Christian Bethancourt.

In his pregame chat on Saturday, Cubs manager Craig Counsell repeated “it’s not an excuse” twice when discussing the offense-suppressing elements. That was before the Cubs’ latest shutout loss. In the past two games, Chicago has put the leadoff man aboard just twice in 18 innings, and had zero innings with multiple runners on at the same time.

“You’d like to say, 'Let’s score five every single day or six every single day,'” Counsell said. “That’s pretty hard to do. But obviously, you have to create offense on a daily basis to win games in these conditions and this environment. No runs? You’ve got to pitch perfect.”

Hoyer pointed out that the run production at Wrigley has shifted this season, compared to a year ago. Entering Saturday, the Cubs had a .677 OPS (94 wRC+) at home and a .738 OPS (105 wRC+) on the road. Last season, the North Siders logged a .772 OPS (114 wRC+) at home, versus a .730 OPS (98 wRC+) away from Wrigley Field.

Hoyer acknowledged that “some of that is probably randomness,” but it is nonetheless a piece to the puzzle his front-office team will try to solve. The bulk of the Cubs’ position-player group is under contract or control for 2025, so the offensive blueprint is mostly in place.

“It’s probably an October conversation, not now,” Hoyer said. “It’s a very complicated thing to try to figure out.”

The offensive extremes the Cubs have experienced this season go beyond the recent chatter about the weather conditions.

After a solid first month, the lineup’s production cratered in May (85 wRC+) and continued to labor into June (95 wRC+). A promising July (101 wRC+) came next, followed by an explosive team-wide showing in August (121 wRC+). Last month, only the D-backs (171) and Brewers (156) scored more runs than the Cubs (155).

In the 10 days leading up to the current homestand, the North Siders rattled off 99 runs, hit .319 as a team and churned out 48 extra-base hits with a .923 OPS overall. Since going 9-1 in that scorching stretch, the Cubs have scored 15 runs total in five games -- a dozen coming in the no-hitter on Wednesday -- with three shutout losses.

Hoyer’s challenge is to determine which version of the Cubs' offense is real.

“We have to own the fact that we were also the May and June Cubs, and that we’re also [the group that thrived in August],” Hoyer said. “I don’t think you can just take the good and eliminate the bad. I think you have to take it all and analyze it and make those decisions in the offseason.”