Cubs look to keep 'rolling' in second half

This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian’s Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CHICAGO -- The first half did not go how the Cubs intended. Injuries struck all aspects of the roster, the bullpen faltered early on and the offense fell into a deep slumber across May and June. It was a combination that sent Chicago tumbling to the bottom of the National League Central.

The way the North Siders picked up the pace ahead of the All-Star break fueled hope in the clubhouse that a second-half comeback could be in store. The Cubs entered the intermission having won eight of 11, during which they posted a +29 run differential and averaged 5.5 runs per game. That included a sweep on the road against the Orioles.

“It's huge,” lefty Justin Steele said in Baltimore about the recent hot streak. “It's the kind of thing you need to be doing, especially in the spot we're in. But we're feeling good. The boys are rolling right now. It's fun.”

Here is a look at the Cubs’ situation coming out of the break:

Second-half goal: Stay on a hot streak, make postseason
The North Siders are hoping the strong showing before the break is the start of an extended run of winning. Chicago believes it is a much better team than its 47-51 record would indicate, and it sits only 3 1/2 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot.

The constant wave of injuries in the first half plagued the bullpen most notably. If the rotation can remain a strength while the bullpen gets some reinforcements and the offense keeps up its upswing ahead of the break, the Cubs at least have a shot of climbing into the Wild Card picture.

Likely Trade Deadline strategy: Keep contending in 2025 in mind
Knowing how Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has approached things in recent years, he is going to keep his line of thinking close to the vest until the Deadline arrives. Chicago’s front office is still in a holding pattern to see if the team can keep its strong finish to the first half going over the next couple of weeks.

Whatever the Cubs do, this is not likely going to be a major sell-off. The current team was built with the goal of contending this year and in the coming seasons, so a rebuild is not really a realistic avenue. If pieces are traded away, it will likely be to create more roster flexibility to retool for 2025.

Key second-half player: OF Cody Bellinger
If the Cubs were to shift into pseudo-sell mode, Bellinger may have seemed like a potential trade chip. Given his recent trip to the injured list due to a fractured left middle finger, that looks unlikely now, especially with his uncertain timeline to return. Bellinger’s situation was already complicated due to his ability to opt out of his three-year deal after both 2024 and ‘25.

More than likely, Bellinger will still be a Cub in the second half, and perhaps for at least one more season. When he does return, the goal for Bellinger will be to find the power that has gone missing, as he posted just a .354 slugging percentage over his last 54 games before landing on the IL. That would go a long way in helping the offense continue to turn things around.

Prospect to watch: C Moises Ballesteros
Ballesteros (Chicago’s No. 5 prospect and the No. 60 prospect overall, per MLB Pipeline) is only 20 years old, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that he could find his way to the Majors before the end of the season. The Cubs’ offensive production out of the catcher spot has ranked near the bottom of MLB all season -- and Ballesteros has been raking in the Minors.

Through 74 games with Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, Ballesteros has slashed .300/.363/.483 with 11 homers, 14 doubles, 49 RBIs and a 138 wRC+, earning a spot in the All-Star Futures Game. Maybe 2025 is more realistic for his arrival, but it’s worth monitoring the Cubs’ catching situation in the second half.