Cubs' keys on defense: Data and freedom

MESA, Ariz. -- Joc Pederson knows that the analytical machine that the Dodgers have built works. One needs only to point to last fall's World Series triumph or their eight straight division crowns for evidence.

That does not mean that Pederson has not felt a kind of freeing difference since putting on a Cubs' uniform. Specifically, Pederson believes Chicago's approach to outfield defense and positioning can help him get back to feeling like himself in the field.

"The Dodgers do stuff a certain way that makes them very successful," Pederson said on a recent spring morning. "But I just felt a little bit restricted."

The Cubs are coming off a 2020 campaign that included taking home the first Rawlings Team Gold Glove Award. Much of the data was driven by the North Siders' strong infield, but the outfield was also anchored by five-time Gold Glove winner Jason Heyward.

Like the Dodgers, and plenty of teams around baseball these days, the Cubs give their outfielders analytical models to follow for positioning. You might even see one of the outfielders pull a card out of his back pocket for reference.

With all the information, however, does come some freedom.

"Yeah, we're going to have these numbers," Heyward said. "We're going to have these cards to tell us where to be. But when it comes down to it, the human's going to win the game."

The data that the Cubs will piece together for each game will be based on multiple factors. There will obviously be advanced numbers for the hitters in the opposing lineups. Also baked into the planning will be the arsenals of Chicago starting pitcher that day, and how certain hitters' swing paths react to specific pitches in various situations.

Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy, Mike Borzello (Chicago's associate pitching, catching and strategy coach) and the pitching infrastructure team will relay spray charts and data to bench coach Andy Green and third-base coach Willie Harris. Green will handle infield positioning, while Harris will guide the outfielders.

All of these conversations will be critical this season with such a contact-based pitching staff.

"We do a good job as an outfield of communicating with Borzy, with Hottovy," Cubs center fielder Ian Happ said. "And I think those guys are the best in the world at using the analytics to know where balls are going to be put in play."

From there, the Cubs will give their outfielders the flexibility to make in-game adjustments on their own and as a unit. The data provides the foundation, but then the outfielders can read swings, or react to other factors in the game (wind patterns, pitcher effectiveness, bullpen arms coming in and so on).

"Guys aren't the same every day. It's not a video game," Happ said. "You can't expect them to do the same thing over and over again. So, for us out there, it's being able to read swings, make adjustments in the moment, pitch to pitch, at-bat to at-bat for certain hitters."

Cubs manager David Ross also noted that each outfielder has their own preferences for positioning, based upon their comfort on certain types of plays.

"There's one guy that I know would rather go back on the ball," Ross said. "Another guy really enjoys coming in on the ball and feels like he's much more efficient and gets better reads if he's deeper. ... So what we do is we've got a system, a model, that sets up maybe a starting position and then we let them [adjust on their own]."

Happ said that process is helped by having Heyward as a captain of sorts for the outfield corps.

"I have a guy next to me in right field who's won 800 Gold Gloves," Happ said. "One of the best to ever do it."

Last season, Heyward was a Gold Glove finalist again, having posted a 2.7 SABR Defensive Index (second among qualified National League right fielders). The veteran has played center and right for the Cubs, but the team has committed to keeping him in right, where he has 138 Defensive Runs Saved in his career.

Happ posted a minus 1.5 SDI last season with minus two DRS in center field, but it was also his first time used as an everyday center fielder. In previous years, he bounced around the infield and outfield, so the Cubs are counting on the dedicated work in center leading to improvement.

As for Pederson, he is coming off what would be considered a down year defensively (minus two DRS in left), but he had 12 DRS between left and right during the 2019 season. A former center fielder, Pederson believes the increased freedom from the Cubs will pay dividends this year.

Pederson also said he has taken steps this spring to make left field "feel like center" and he has been encouraged by the results so far.

"The Dodgers were more, 'Stick to the card,'" Pederson said. "Willie [Harris] kind of talked to me and said these are all good numbers, but he said, 'You're a center fielder. You know how to read the bat. You know the feel of the game. You know if the pitcher is locating.'”

"There's a lot that goes into it, and that kind of, I think, helps me stay engaged with everything going on, rather than just sometimes feeling stagnant."