'We're going to slug': Cubs not worried after quiet day at plate

CHICAGO -- There are aspects of the Cubs’ early production on offense that the team believes can and should continue throughout the course of this season. And while that may prove to be the case, the early returns have been more best-case than baseline.

“The numbers where they're at now are unsustainable,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said with a chuckle on Saturday morning. “But look, on offense, you try to be the best version of yourself.”

For the first seven games of the season, the Cubs were certainly operating in best-version territory. There was bound to be a game in which our old friend Regression arrived. It took the form of Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Saturday, when Chicago’s bats went quiet in key moments en route to a 4-1 loss at Wrigley Field.

This was no cause for alarm. This was Los Angeles’ near-$400 million arm doing what he was paid to do. The Cubs loaded the bases twice within the first two frames and Yamamoto found his escape route at each turn. And those early misfires by the North Side nine made for a long afternoon in the batter’s box.

By the time the Cubs pushed a run across in the ninth inning, it was too late.

“We had opportunities to score today,” Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “They capitalized on the couple that they did and we didn't, and that was the difference today. But I really like where we're at.”

The Cubs should like where they are at offensively right now, too.

Entering Saturday’s game, the Cubs were leading the Major Leagues in on-base percentage (.384) and were tied with the Braves for the most runs scored per game (7.0). Chicago also boasted the lowest strikeout rate in MLB (15.4%), along with the highest walk rate (14.0%). Overall, the Cubs had nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (43) through 279 plate appearances.

“It's been covered well, but our depth is impressive,” Hoerner said. “We have really quality at-bats and do so in different ways from different guys.”

For perspective, the Cubs were one of baseball’s better lineups in ‘23, ranking sixth in MLB in on-base percentage (.330) and runs per game (5.06). Chicago had a 9.2% walk rate that checked in at eighth overall, combined with a 22.4% strikeout rate that was 13th in baseball.

That is why Counsell called the current pace “unsustainable” for the Cubs. The manager was not being critical -- just realistic. That does not mean that Chicago’s hitters should not strive to keep replicating the formula used out of the chute in ‘24. There have been long at-bats and a willingness to take a walk if a sought-after pitch does not present itself for a batter’s “A” swing.

“It's honestly very similar to last year,” Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly said. “The core guys are still here. They had those at-bats last year. They had that mentality last year. You don't really know what the identity of every team is going to be, but I think [the first few games are] a really good indication of like, 'This is who we are.'

“We're going to slug. We're going to walk. We're not going to punch out a ton. Those things will come and go just like a normal season. But the identity of our team is, like, ‘We're swinging at the pitches we're supposed to swing at.’”

It just did not happen on Saturday.

Yamamoto, who leaned more on his curveball than in his first two appearances for the Dodgers, ended with eight strikeouts in his five shutout frames. Through their first seven games this season, Chicago’s lineup had not struck out more than eight times in an entire game. By the end of the afternoon, the Cubs had struck out 15 times.

In the first inning, the Cubs loaded the bases with no outs. Yamamoto then struck out Christopher Morel swinging with a curve, dotted a fastball low-and-inside to freeze Dansby Swanson on a called third strike and struck out Michael Busch with an elevated breaking ball that flirted with the outside edge.

The Cubs loaded the bases again in the second, but with two outs. This time, Yamamoto used another curveball over the outside corner for a called strikeout.

“It's a full package,” Counsell said of Yamamoto. “We put some pressure on him in the first two innings. We just couldn't break through, unfortunately. And then he kind of got into a rhythm, which is unfortunately what happens against the good ones, right? You've got to break through when you get those shots.”