Cubs aiming to top preseason projections

This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian’s Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

MESA, Ariz. -- The arrival of Spring Training means the return of baseballs popping into gloves, batters launching BP homers as music blares, fans lining up for autographs and selfies with players, and various outlets releasing projections that become bulletin board material.

“How we looking?” Cubs infielder Nico Hoerner said with a laugh.

Well, let’s just say the algorithms are expecting another transition-type season for the North Siders. Over at Baseball Prospectus, the PECOTA projections peg the Cubs at an estimated 77 wins. The ZiPS projections on Fangraphs give the Cubs 78 wins. In both scenarios, Chicago sits in third place in the National League Central behind the rival Cardinals and Brewers.

Inside the clubhouse, the Cubs believe they have a team capable of contending for a playoff spot, and perhaps even the division title. That belief stems from a busy offseason that included reeling in big-ticket shortstop Dansby Swanson, starter Jameson Taillon and center fielder Cody Bellinger, among others.

Maybe the Cubs did not “win the winter.” But the club addressed clear needs and supplemented a roster that ended last season with a 39-31 record after the All-Star break and boasted the third-lowest rotation ERA (2.89) in that span. Under the statistical hood, however, the calculations do not yet align with the players’ collective confidence.

“It's an extremely hard sport to predict,” Hoerner said. “And I think that's what makes it so enjoyable. It makes it fun to follow other teams still and makes it fun as a fan, because I think looking around locker rooms around the league right now, hopefully, a lot of people feel like they have a really good chance. That's how it should be.

“And I think we're in a place where we've had a lot of change. And I think trying to predict that is misleading one way or another. I think it's creating that identity for ourselves, and just owning whatever that is as a group. I think we have great starting pitching depth and defense and a lot of accomplished hitters. And that's a really nice place to start.”

The Cubs believe hitters like Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki could be on the cusp of big seasons, but one (Bellinger) is trying to rebound from a tough multiyear stretch of offense, while the other (Suzuki) is looking to build on an up-and-down rookie year. The Cubs also believe their contact-based starting staff could be better than projection models due to the team’s enhanced defense and emphasis on run prevention.

“Every single year, there's going to be plus or minus 10 wins on all the projection systems,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said. “That has to be our goal -- is to be a team that's plus-10 or more. That's what everyone's doing here, working hard to do.”