This team won free agency in 2023

Remember last offseason, when all eyes in the baseball world were trained on rumors involving megastar free agent slugger Aaron Judge? And what about a pair of shortstops highlighting a deep free agent class at that position, Trea Turner and Carlos Correa? On the pitching market, we were anxious to find out where luminaries like Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón would end up.

As we approach the final month of the regular season, most of the aforementioned names are conspicuously absent from the top tier of many leaderboards, including wins above replacement.

Injury and/or underperformance have derailed these stars in 2023, including a toe sprain that caused Judge to miss nearly two months for the Yankees, Tommy John surgery that ended deGrom’s season after six starts with the Rangers, and struggles at the plate for Turner with the Phillies and Correa with the Twins.

In their stead, we find some relatively surprising names from last offseason's free agent class. Three of the top four on the “free agent signing fWAR leaderboard” so far in 2023 are all in the same lineup, helping to fuel an improbable postseason push by the Cubs -- Dansby Swanson (3.8 fWAR), Cody Bellinger (3.7) and Jeimer Candelario (3.6). The only other free agent (re-)signing in the top four is Judge, whose four homers over his last three games propelled him into a tie with Swanson.

Top 2022-23 Free Agents by fWAR

1-T. Dansby Swanson, Cubs: 3.8
1-T. Aaron Judge, Yankees: 3.8
3. Cody Bellinger, Cubs: 3.7
4. Jeimer Candelario, Nationals/Cubs: 3.6

Preseason projections weren’t high on the Cubs as they continued their quest to return to sustained contention after trading away most of their core from the 2016 World Series championship team. FanGraphs, for instance, had Chicago going 78-84 this season, and ESPN had the North Siders going 75-87.

But the Cubs are 67-61, currently in possession of a National League Wild Card spot and four games behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. Here’s a breakdown of how a trio of free agents has impacted this club during a surprise surge that has it eyeing October.

Cubs banked on a Belli bounce-back, and it’s paying off
Bellinger was on his way to superstardom with the Dodgers, winning the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year Award and, two years later, the NL MVP Award. But then it all started to unravel for the outfielder/first baseman -- beginning with the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, his production took a precipitous fall.

From 2020-22, Bellinger hit .203/.272/.376, leading some to believe his best days were already behind him. Many also wondered whether a shoulder injury resulting from a post-homer celebration during the 2020 World Series was partly to blame.

A free agent for the first time following the 2022 campaign, the question was: Which team will take a chance on a Belli bounceback?

In stepped the Cubs, signing Bellinger to a one-year, $17.5 million deal with a team option for 2024. That has proven to be a bargain so far. Bellinger leads the club in homers (20, tied with Patrick Wisdom), RBIs (68) and OPS (.906), and he’s second with 17 steals.

Dansby’s delivering
Swanson was one of the stars in a heavyweight class of free-agent shortstops last offseason, and the Cubs landed him with a seven-year, $177 million contract, the second-largest deal ever given out by the storied franchise.

So far, Swanson hasn’t disappointed. While his batting average (.245) has dipped from his career year in 2022, his on-base percentage (.331) and slugging percentage (.429) are closer to last season's figures. His next homer will also put him over 20 for the third straight year.

And defensively, Swanson has been as good as advertised. Entering Friday, his 14 Outs Above Average led all MLB players, regardless of position.

He signed elsewhere, but this free agent is now helping the Cubs
Candelario may be the biggest bargain of our trio when it’s all said and done. After he made his big league debut with the Cubs in 2016, Chicago traded him to Detroit, where he played for the Tigers through the ’22 campaign.

The Nationals then signed Candelario to a one-year, $5 million free agent deal this past offseason, and all he’s done is put together what is on track to be a career year. His next homer will tie his career high of 19, and his .839 OPS is his highest in any full season.

The Cubs acquired Candelario before the Trade Deadline, and in 21 games with Chicago so far, he’s hitting .319 with seven doubles, a triple and two homers.

Not perfect, but so far, the Cubs are free agency winners in 2023
Last February, as the hot stove season drew to a close, we ranked the top 10 teams that we felt had made the best offseason moves. We had the Cubs ranked eighth, noting that Chicago was significantly improved by the Swanson signing, and that if Bellinger had a bounce-back season, this was a group that could compete for the postseason.

That’s exactly what’s happened, though the process hasn’t all been smooth. The Cubs also signed first baseman/outfielder Trey Mancini, starter Jameson Taillon, reliever Brad Boxberger, first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Mancini, Hosmer and Barnhart were all released following underwhelming performances, Taillon has struggled to a 5.60 ERA, and Boxberger is on the 60-day injured list.

Still, when you have three of the top four free agent signings by WAR in the fold as you near September -- not to mention some low-key moves that have also paid dividends, such as the signing of Mike Tauchman (he has a .759 OPS with seven homers in 295 plate appearances) -- it’s safe to say you won the previous offseason, particularly when you’re in playoff contention.

That’s where the Cubs find themselves now, and they hope that in October, they’ll find themselves in the postseason thanks in large part to three players who were elsewhere in 2022.