What to expect from Colton Cowser in the Majors

The prospect parade continues in Baltimore.

Now it’s Colton Cowser's turn to join the fun, as the Orioles called up the outfielder to join the club in New York on Wednesday. The O’s No. 2 prospect (and MLB Pipeline’s No. 14 overall prospect) will be called upon to help bolster a roster that’s been banged up and struggling of late.

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Cowser will become the fifth first-round pick from the 2021 Draft to make it to the big leagues. He was ranked No. 10 on MLB Pipeline’s Draft list that year, and the Orioles took him at No. 5, signing him for a below-slot bonus of $4.9 million. It was the second straight year the team took a college outfielder and cut a deal, having taken Heston Kjerstad with the No. 2 overall pick in 2020, a move that once again allowed them to go over slot for numerous players later the Draft.

The highest drafted player in Sam Houston State history, Cowser showed he was much more than a money-saver right out of the gate when he finished with a .982 OPS over 32 games in his pro debut, spent mostly with Single-A Delmarva. Cowser excelled in 2022, his first full pro season, reaching Triple-A and finishing with 19 homers and 18 steals to go along with a 15 percent walk rate.

The flip side of that coin was the swing-and-miss that popped up in Cowser’s game, something that was a bit of a surprise to some given his hit-over-power profile entering pro ball. The left-handed hitter whiffed 174 times (27.8 percent) in 2022 and seemed to struggle with breaking stuff in particular at Double-A and Triple-A (44 percent miss rate).

Long known for having an advanced approach with a keen sense of the strike zone, Cowser unsurprisingly made some adjustments in 2023, which he spent exclusively at Triple-A. He has a .996 OPS on the season (.330/.459/.537), with 10 homers and seven steals, and he’s still drawing a ton of walks (18.7 percent). His strikeout rate has been slashed, however, cut down to 23.3 percent. He’s missing fewer breaking balls (40 percent), and he’s improved more against sliders, cutting his miss rate on the pitch from 44 percent to 36 percent). He simply doesn’t miss fastballs; according to Synergy, Cowser has hit .430/.576/.785 when seeing a heater this year. Eight of his 10 homers in ’23 have come against fastballs, and he maintains a knack for barreling up the ball and driving it to all fields.

Suffice it to say, Cowser should expect a steady diet of spin and offspeed stuff at the highest level. Whether he can continue to adjust will be a key to big league success for him offensively. One thing working in Cowser’s favor is his ability to see a lot of pitches and not wave at offerings out of the zone. Being able to reach good hitters’ counts will help him see, and feast off, more fastballs, but don’t be shocked if Cowser’s strikeout rate climbs a little bit as he gets his feet wet.

Cowser isn’t a bat-only player. While he’s not a burner, he uses the speed he has well on both sides of the ball. He’s a smart and aggressive baserunner, one who should continue to steal some bags in the Majors. He’s also shown he has the wheels and instincts to play a solid center field, something evaluators weren’t sold on in his Draft year. He certainly is capable of playing an outfield corner, something likely to occur with Cedric Mullins established in center field for the O’s.