Can Kershaw reharness magic for Game 4?
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Game 4 of the National League Championship Series is Clayton Kershaw’s game, and it might also be his series. He’ll confirm whether what happened Wednesday night was an NLCS aberration or transformation.
Look, the Dodgers did wonderful, incredible, record-breaking stuff at the plate in Game 3. Their lopsided 15-3 win got them off the schneid in this best-of-seven series and, going back to the seventh inning of Game 2, they have outscored the Braves, 22-5.
| Game | Date | Result | Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gm 1 | Oct. 12 | ATL 5, LAD 1 | Watch |
| Gm 2 | Oct. 13 | ATL 8, LAD 7 | Watch |
| Gm 3 | Oct. 14 | LAD 15, ATL 3 | Watch |
| Gm 4 | Oct. 15 | ATL 10, LAD 2 | Watch |
| Gm 5 | Oct. 16 | LAD 7, ATL 3 | Watch |
| Gm 6 | Oct. 17 | LAD 3, ATL 1 | Watch |
| Gm 7 | Oct. 18 | LAD 4, ATL 3 | Watch |
Shop for postseason gear: Alas, they still have just one win to show for it. And while the numbers on the Globe Life Field scoreboard were clearly in their favor in a Texas-sized shellacking, the historical numbers are still stacked against them.
Only 25 percent of teams that fell behind 2-0 in a best-of-seven series and won Game 3 have come all the way back to win the series -- and none of the last 17 did it. You have to go all the way back to the 2004 Red Sox's rally against the Yankees in the ALCS to find the last team that made a complete recovery from a 2-0 hole.
So while it has become a bit of a running joke this time of year to refer to a Kershaw outing as The Most Important Postseason Start of His Career, well, Game 4 is pretty darn important.
The Dodgers need No. 22 to get it to 2-2.
• Kershaw to start Game 4 looking to even series
“I just know that, if he’s in a good place physically, you know he’ll be prepared,” manager Dave Roberts said. “I like where we’re at.”
On paper, Kershaw vs. Bryse Wilson is a mismatch. Kershaw is a future Hall of Famer. Wilson is, by all accounts, a very nice person. It’s also likely the Braves will try to piggyback Wilson and bullpen their way through this one, which, even after Huascar Ynoa’s impressive and necessary heavy lifting to take the weight off the rest of the ‘pen in Game 3, is no easy feat.
• Braves tab Wilson to start NLCS Game 4
Read the paper closely, however, and you’ll see that Kershaw -- even in the midst of a resurgent season and on the heels of two wins in this postseason -- has his work cut out for him here.
Consider …
1) Kershaw loves the breaking ball … and so do the Braves.
Kershaw’s breaking pitches have accounted for 57.2 percent of his offerings in this postseason (42.8 percent sliders, 14.4 percent curveballs, per Statcast) -- the highest percentage of anyone with at least 100 pitches.
While Kershaw typically gets a slew of swinging strikes from his breaking ball (28 through two starts this postseason), he’ll be going up against a Braves team whose .429 slugging percentage against breaking balls was the highest in MLB this year.
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2) Kershaw loves the first-pitch strike … and so do the Braves.
He had the highest first-pitch strike percentage (69.7 percent) of any pitcher in baseball in the regular season. In the postseason, his first-pitch strike prowess has been even more pronounced. He’s faced 51 batters and thrown a first-pitch strike to 43 of them (84.3 percent).
The Braves are especially equipped to ambush Kershaw. Their .788 slugging percentage on the first pitch was the best in MLB.
3) And let’s not forget about the back.
The back has been a chronic concern for Kershaw. He missed about two-and-a-half months of 2016 with a herniated disk, five weeks of '17 with a low back strain, three weeks of '18 with low back discomfort and was scratched from this shortened season’s Opening Day start due to back stiffness.
Kershaw wouldn’t be getting this start if the Dodgers didn’t feel he’s in a better place than he was two days ago. But we simply don’t know whether the spasms that scratched him for Game 2 are serious enough to affect him during Game 4.
All stats aside, this is the kind of story we love in October. Kershaw -- the lifelong Dodger with the tortured history in this tournament -- trying to summon the stuff and stamina to remind the world how good he is and how good this Dodgers team is. That he’s pitching near his Dallas hometown -- and in front of friends and family in the first ticketed series of the MLB season -- makes it all the more compelling.
If the Braves beat him and go up 3-1, the history of best-of-sevens tells us Atlanta will have an 85 percent chance of winning the NL pennant.
But if Kershaw comes through, it’s a brand-new NLCS.