Close play at plate shows risk and reward of aggressive baserunning

DETROIT -- The concept of a no-hitter thrown during a power outage sounds more like a cheesy commercial for a utility provider than a baseball game. The symbolism would have been too obvious -- at least until Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman went to work on the Tigers' lineup in a 9-1 loss on Thursday evening.

To be fair, Comerica Park had power, even though an outage to the broadcast trucks and neighboring facilities just before first pitch knocked the Toronto-Detroit series opener back to another era: No telecast, no Statcast, no hits to measure in any way. Still, it seemed like an on-field cliche, matched by the Tigers’ resurgence once power, television and technology were restored in the sixth inning.

Yet as Carson Kelly charged around third base on Wenceel Pérez’s game-tying single in the sixth, there was still one more shutdown to come. Kelly was thrown out at home to end a frame that included one run on three singles.

“We were that close to taking the lead,” manager A.J. Hinch lamented afterwards.

But that wasn’t the reason the Tigers (23-27) suffered their fifth straight defeat. Eight Blue Jays runs over the final three innings did away with any remnants of a close game.

Yet as the Tigers look at their season to date, that play at the plate gets at an ongoing debate: How aggressive can they be on the basepaths? And how much could they actually trust their offense to produce if they played it safe?

Hinch didn’t hire Joey Cora as Detroit’s third-base coach last fall to go station to station, or even to play average. Cora is here to push the envelope like he has at previous stops with the White Sox, the Pirates and the Mets. He wants to challenge opposing defenders to make plays, and the Tigers' baserunners know it.

There’s risk and reward to that. When Kelly became the first assist of the season for four-time Gold Glove winner Kevin Kiermaier -- and the 58th assist of Kiermaier's 12-year MLB career -- he also became the sixth Tigers baserunner thrown out at home this season. The Angels and the AL Central-leading Guardians entered Thursday leading the AL with seven, followed by the Red Sox, the Royals, the Twins and the Yankees. All of those teams but the Angels entered Thursday with a winning record.

Show me a third-base coach who never gets a runner thrown out at home plate, former manager Jim Leyland likes to argue, and I’ll show you a bad third-base coach. Finding the balance between opportunity and recklessness is the job. Perfection isn't. Knowing where the opportunities are is key to that balance.

“They have one of the best outfields in baseball on the defensive side on a lot of levels,” Hinch said. “Carson got the break [off second], and obviously it’s a bang-bang play at home.”

Fittingly, the power outage that knocked out the telecasts meant no replay challenges were available for the first six innings. Even if the Tigers disagreed with the call, they couldn’t do anything about it. The next inning, they were informed that replay review was up and running again. Still, Hinch said, he and the coaches will look back at replays later to review the details of the play -- from Kelly’s secondary lead and slide to Kiermaier’s throw.

An overhead camera angle showed Kelly about to step on third as Kiermaier reached the ball, but it also showed Kiermaier -- despite his momentum taking him to right-center -- throwing the ball exactly where catcher Danny Jansen needed to tag Kelly out. The Tigers challenged Kiermaier to make a play, and he did exactly what was needed.

Had Kelly stayed at third, Detroit would’ve brought Kerry Carpenter to the plate with a chance to take the lead, but also with Toronto’s bullpen warming.

Go deeper into baserunning, and FanGraphs’ formula of Baserunning Runs Above Average has the Tigers ranked eighth in the Majors, ahead of the Guardians and Twins. Five of the seven teams above them have a winning record, except the Reds and the Nationals.

Similarly, Statcast estimates the Tigers have added three runs on the basepaths this season, tied for most in the Majors entering Thursday. They’ve attempted to take an extra base three percent above the average for their situations, which ranks fourth highest among MLB teams. Their safe-rate-per-opportunity mark is similarly high, but their safe-rate-per-attempt stats are closer to the the pack.

In the big picture, the Tigers’ inconsistent hitting leaves little reason to throw up stop signs. Whether the power’s out or surging, the energy around the bases will continue.