Tale of the Tape: Cardinals-Cubs rivalry

This weekend, for the first time this season, the Cardinals and Cubs are playing each other. Each team has played all the other major competitors in the National League Central -- somehow, the Cardinals have played the Brewers 10 times already -- but so far, they’ve avoided each other. This is of particular import, not just because they’ve been heated rivals for more than 100 years, but also because … they might just be the two best teams in baseball right now.

After Friday afternoon, when the Cubs beat the Cards, 4-0, the Cardinals' division lead over the Cubs shrunk to 1 1/2 games and the bottom line is this: These teams are playing on the same insanely high level right now. Chicago, after a 2-7 start, seems to finally be firing on all cylinders, and it's a team that has reached the playoffs four consecutive seasons and averaged more than 95 wins a season since 2015. (Oh, and there was that World Series.)

As hot as both are right now, the teams feel invincible, which is the perfect time for them to meet for a weekend series at the Friendly Confines. They have met just once in the postseason, a resounding 3-1 NL Division Series victory for the Cubs in 2015, and have had surprisingly few pennant chases otherwise. They’ve rarely been great at the same time.

This season might be one of those times. So, considering these teams are always measuring themselves against each other, let’s take a look at how they stack up. Here’s the current Cardinals-Cubs tale of the tape.

LINEUP
Javier Báez has held onto his 2018 gains and may finally be harnessing his otherworldly talent, and Anthony Rizzo has been Anthony Rizzo, but everything else in the Cubs' lineup is upside-down. Kyle Schwarber is a below-average hitter right now, which particularly hurts considering his defensive limitations. Kris Bryant has been anything but his MVP Award-winning self, and Albert Almora Jr. and Ben Zobrist have essentially given the Cubs nothing. But Willson Contreras, whose game fell apart last year, has played like the best-hitting catcher in the sport and, perhaps most surprising, Jason Heyward looks like his vintage Braves (or Cardinals, for that matter) self at the plate, leading the team in on-base percentage. And let’s not get carried away with all the supposed struggles: The Cubs are leading the NL in runs per game right now.

But the Cardinals’ lineup is currently terrifying. There isn’t a single hole. Yadier Molina got off to a slow start but just ended a 16-game hitting streak, and Matt Carpenter is off to his usual slow April start. (Though it’s a better start than he had last season, and he nearly won the MVP.) Everybody else is raking, from new acquisition Paul Goldschmidt to Marcell Ozuna to Jose Martinez to a rejuvenated Dexter Fowler (leading the team in OBP) to Paul DeJong, who is playing like an MVP candidate. Oh, and Kolten Wong, Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill and even Matt Wieters are hitting the ball with authority as well. There are going to be many, many runs scored in this series. Slight advantage: Cardinals

ROTATION
Heading into the season, the general consensus was that the Cardinals, if they were going to outpace the Cubs and Brewers and win the division, would have to do it with their rotation. The issue wasn’t whether St. Louis had enough pitching; it was whether it had too much. (At one point, there were 11 contenders for spots in the rotation.) But that depth hasn’t revealed itself to be particularly useful so far. Rookie Dakota Hudson has been knocked around in nearly every start, Michael Wacha is walking batters at a rate higher than any other time in his career (and has missed a start), Jack Flaherty got off to a slow start (but appears to have recovered) and, perhaps most concerning, Miles Mikolas has allowed more than one hit per inning, eight total homers and an alarming number of baserunners. Put it this way: That 37-year-old Adam Wainwright currently has the lowest ERA on the team is a bad sign.

The Cubs were supposed to be the team with the rotation problems, but their starters have been fantastic, particularly lately. Kyle Hendricks used 81 pitches to Maddux the Cardinals in Friday's series opener. Then there's Jon Lester (1.73 ERA), who looks a decade younger than he is, as does Cole Hamels, and José Quintana is starting to show the results Chicago was hoping for when it traded Eloy Jimenez for him. And don’t look now, but Yu Darvish is starting to look like the old Yu: He struck out eight and allowed just one run in his last start, a win against the D-backs. The Cardinals’ rotation is full of questions right now. The Cubs’ looks better than it did all last year. Advantage: Cubs

BULLPEN
The big piece for the Cardinals this offseason was Andrew Miller, who appeared healthy and ready to dominate this spring. But he has been the wobbliest Cardinals bullpenner so far. He still has the highest strikeout rate on the team, so he’s getting close, but St. Louis doesn’t need to rush him, not with the way the rest of the 'pen is throwing. The key so far? The Three J’s, which is not a real nickname, but something I’m trying anyway. John Brebbia has carried over his 2018 success. John Gant is throwing harder than he ever has in his career and has been pitching almost exclusively in high-leverage spots. And Jordan Hicks has added a brutal slider to his 104-mph fastball, making him downright deadly. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been their downfall the past few years. So far, it’s a major strength.

The Cubs’ bullpen is a bit more in flux, but Chicago has gotten excellent contributions from Brad Brach, Brandon Kintzler and Pedro Strop, who is somehow 33 years old. Intriguingly, Tyler Chatwood has started to show some of his old form now that he’s in the bullpen, and he’s hitting the ball now as well. But who’s the shutdown arm in this 'pen? Advantage: Cardinals

DEFENSE
The Cubs’ sublime defense was a huge part of their 2016 World Series title, and they’re still great now, particularly now that Baez has firmly established himself at shortstop. (What happens when they have to call up Addison Russell -- or not -- is one of the more intriguing stories in the game right now.) They lose something when Schwarber is in left field, but not any more than the Cardinals lose when Martinez is in right. The Cardinals are particularly strong up the middle with Wong, Bader and the surprisingly excellent DeJong (not to mention Molina, of course), but left and right fields are both problems, as is third base. St. Louis manager Mike Shildt substitutes liberally late to minimize defensive issues, but those early innings still count. Slight advantage: Cubs

INTANIGIBLES
After years of being treated like lovable losers and little brothers, the Cubs have eaten the Cardinals’ lunch for several years now. Chicago has been a collective 33 games better than St. Louis. Head-to-head, the Cubs hold a 33-24 advantage since they ripped apart the Cardinals in that 2015 NLDS, essentially an extra series sweep. St. Louis fans may still feel their team is the big dog in this division, but it isn’t. It’s the Cubs. (Or the Brewers, for that matter.)

The Cardinals have clearly adjusted the model that allowed them to win three consecutive division titles before the Cubs stopped their streak in 2016. They’re being more aggressive about bringing in talent outside their own system, from Fowler in 2017 to Ozuna in '18 to Goldschmidt and Miller in '19, and that has been in direct response to the Cubs' menace. (They were arguably too slow to respond to the looming Cubs' tower in the first place.) Considering how much young talent Chicago has traded away to try to win another title in this current window, and how much money it has wrapped up in its current roster (not to mention the price of some upcoming extensions, namely Bryant’s, Baez’s and Rizzo’s), it’s possible the Cardinals are in fact set up with more flexibility than the Cubs over the next five years. If anything, the dynamic of the established empire trying to hang onto its division dominance as it ages has been flipped. The Cubs are the captain now.

But that’s something that probably works more for them than against them in a series like this one, with the team having overcome early strife to be playing its best baseball right now. The Cardinals are confident, but the Cubs have been here before … and have the perfect opportunity, at home, to remind St. Louis who has owned the last four years. Advantage: Cubs

No matter what -- and the Brewers, Pirates and Reds are going to have quite a bit to say about this as well -- the Cubs and the Cardinals will be tracking each other all year. This weekend marks the first three of 19 regular-season games between them this season. The way they both look right now, we might get some more between them come October.