3 keys to Cards beating Braves in NLDS

ST. LOUIS -- The Cardinals will begin their postseason Thursday in Atlanta for Game 1 of the National League Division Series, the first time they have faced the Braves in a Division Series since 2000. The Cardinals won that series -- as well as the 2012 Wild Card Game -- but what will it take for the Cardinals to advance this time?

If the Cardinals do these three things, they should win the series:

Get Ozuna hot and keep Goldschmidt in the game

A playoff rookie, the 28-year-old Marcell Ozuna took time before Sunday’s celebration to thank his teammates for welcoming him in 2017 when he was traded from the Marlins. But Ozuna is a big reason the Cardinals made the postseason this year. With 29 home runs and 89 RBIs, Ozuna has the kind of bat that can carry an offense. He just needs to get back to that kind of production.

In 26 September games, Ozuna’s batting line was .160/.282/.340. The .160 average went up from .147 after Sunday’s game, when Ozuna went 2-for-5. He had more strikeouts (24) than hits (16). He left 61 runners on base, the most in the Majors in September.

But Cardinals manager Mike Shildt has emphasized that Ozuna is one swing away from breaking through. And Ozuna has shown his power all season. He finished one home run away from being the third Cardinals player with 30 homers (Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong are the other two).

With Ozuna’s September slump, pitchers chose to pitch around Goldschmidt and face Ozuna, and Goldschmidt had the most walks (22) than any other month. If Ozuna gets hot again, pitchers won’t want to put Goldschmidt on base with Ozuna on deck. Ozuna is a key part in making the offense click. If he can come through, it will be his teammates thanking him.

Neutralize the Braves’ left-handed hitters

The Cardinals signed Andrew Miller in the offseason for an experienced left-handed arm out of the bullpen. Miller had the postseason experience that garnered the Cardinals’ interest: He was the ALCS MVP for the Indians in 2016, and he logged 19 1/3 innings that postseason while pitching in 10 of the Indians’ 15 games. In 33 postseason innings (22 games) he has a 1.09 ERA.

He’s shown flashes of his past dominance this year, like when he locked down the save on Sept. 21 against the Cubs to give the Cardinals their postseason berth. But he’s been inconsistent, and in his three appearances after that save, he’s seen his ERA climb from 3.76 to 4.45.

Miller is in prime position to help the Cardinals beat a mighty Braves left-handed lineup. He’s held left-handers to a .211/.330/.337 slash line, compared to a .238/.347/.457 line against right-handers. Of the career-high 11 homers he’s given up this year, only four of them have been against left-handers, and only one of those four came in the second half of the season.

Tyler Webb is another option for left-on-left spots. Left-handed batters are hitting just .157 and slugging .265 against Webb, while right-handers are hitting .189 and slugging .400 against him. And the Cardinals can turn to Giovanny Gallegos for big spots against lefties (.149 average) or righties (.186 average).

If the Cardinals can shut down the Braves’ left-handed bats, they have a better shot at advancing.

Get full production from a healthy Wong

Kolten Wong’s availability isn’t known yet for this weekend after he strained his left hamstring two weeks ago. He sat out nine games, including all three against the Cubs this past weekend, wanting to be 100 percent healthy for the postseason. The 28-year-old second baseman felt comfortable hitting and fielding, but it was the running that he hesitated with -- and speed is part of what makes Wong so valuable.

If Wong can return against the Braves without missing a beat, he’ll be a crucial part to the Cardinals advancing. Wong is having one of his best years defensively and offensively, with a .361 on-base percentage and .784 OPS. His production had him moved to the top of the lineup, and he and leadoff man Dexter Fowler have been key in the Cardinals’ 47-27 post-All Star break record.

If the Braves peg Mike Foltynewicz to start Game 2, Wong could be even more beneficial. He’s batting .455 with three walks against the right-hander in 11 at-bats, including three doubles and a home run.

Wong deepens and adds speed to the lineup while making the defense better. But that’s only if he’s healthy, stays healthy and doesn’t have any rust from missing nine games. The Cardinals hesitated this past weekend with Wong, citing if he does encounter another setback, he’s likely out for the rest of the month. There could be limitations on Wong’s speed if he’s not 100 percent. But if he comes back and continues to play the way he played all season, he will help the Cardinals advance.