7 questions facing the Cards this offseason

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ST. LOUIS -- So, who stays and who goes?

The Cardinals professed plans to trim payroll and shift their focus to further developing their young core of players, so this question is sure to dominate the offseason in a way that it never has in St. Louis. Instead of pursuing free agents the club feels can help bring it closer to a 12th World Series title, St. Louis will likely spend the bulk of its offseason unloading accomplished veterans -- an almost unheard-of prospect in Cards Country.

Yep, it’s going to be an offseason unlike any other in recent years for a franchise that is still uncertain about some of its revenue streams for 2025 and will almost certainly be selling instead of spending this offseason. Here are some of the major questions that the club will be facing in the coming months:

Who might the Cards be willing to trade?
Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras have no-trade clauses in their contracts, so they will have to agree to any deals made this offseason. All three must determine if they want to continue to be a part of a Cardinals club that’s now rebuilding instead of contending.

Arenado, 33, has mentioned repeatedly that he feels the clock on his career ticking, and he wants to be on a team that can compete for a World Series. Could he be a cheaper option for the Astros if they lose free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, or would he consider the Dodgers, Angels, D-backs or Mariners? Contreras, who was nearly dealt to Houston at the Trade Deadline in 2022, might be another option for the Astros. Staying close to his home in Middle Tennessee is important to Gray, so he might consider deals to the Braves or Reds.

Left-hander Steven Matz, who has struggled with injuries for three seasons, is likely to be moved because of his relatively low salary ($11 million) and his ability to start or relieve.

Here’s one Cardinals diehards certainly don’t want to think about: What kind of prospect haul could closer Ryan Helsley command following a season when he locked up 49 saves in 53 chances?

Which players will become free agents?
Paul Goldschmidt, whose production has fallen off dramatically the past two seasons, leads the way here. There is a scenario where the Cardinals would love to retain Goldschmidt, but it would need to be on a club-friendly deal. The D-backs and/or Astros are expected to pursue Goldschmidt and offer him more guaranteed cash, so the likelihood is that he moves on to a contender.

Andrew Kittredge, who was second in MLB in holds with 37 in 2024, is expected to command lots of attention from contending teams. As much as St. Louis would like to keep him, he’ll likely move on elsewhere.

Matt Carpenter would like to play one more season, but that option might not be available to the likely future Cardinals Hall of Famer.

Are any of the free agents likely to receive qualifying offers, and what are the deadlines for that?
Goldschmidt is the only candidate for a qualifying offer, and the Cardinals will likely shy away from offering him what would amount to $21.05 million for the 2025 season. Qualifying offers must be extended by 5 p.m. on the fifth day following the conclusion of the World Series, and players have until Nov. 19 to accept or reject.

Which players have options, what’s the dollar figure and impact on payroll and when does it need to be decided upon?
Veteran pitchers Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have options for 2025 that will likely be declined if the Cards stick with their professed plan. St. Louis has five days after the World Series concludes to decide on the $12 million option for Gibson and the $11 million option for Lynn. Both are owed $1 million if the options are declined. These options could be seen as litmus tests for just how much the franchise intends to scale back payroll.

Keynan Middleton, who didn’t pitch for the Cardinals in 2024 following surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right forearm, also has a team option for ’25. He could return as the closer if Helsley is dealt.

Who might be a non-tender candidate, and when does the club have to make that decision?
Teams must decide by Nov. 22 which arbitration-eligible players they intend to offer contracts to. If the the Cards non-tender a player, he immediately becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Andre Pallante, John King and Helsley are eligible for varying levels of arbitration and will command raises, and the Cardinals will certainly offer all of them contracts to retain their rights. Helsley will command a massive raise on the $3.8 million he made in 2024 after setting a single-season club record with 49 saves this past season.

Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid the Rule 5 Draft, and is there a crunch for roster spots? How might that be resolved, and when does that need to be set?
The Cards need to add two of the most prized pitchers in their organization -- Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby -- to their 40-man roster and they will certainly do that before the Nov. 19 deadline to keep them out of the Rule 5 Draft.

Hence, the No. 2 prospect in the organization, per MLB Pipeline and No. 61 overall, could finally reach the big leagues in 2025 if he can find a way to stay healthy for an entire season. Roby, the Cardinals’ No. 6 prospect, also battled injuries in ’24, but he should also push for a shot at the bigs in ’25.

Will the Cardinals be active in free agency?
As it relates to free agency and the proverbial Hot Stove, it’s going to be a long, cold winter in St. Louis. Check back this time next year when the Cards might be ready to wade back into the free-agent pool.