Ultimate guide to the Cardinals’ 2020 roster

Every year, I run a big Cardinals roster audit, a look at every single relevant player on the Cardinals roster and what they have at stake for the upcoming season. I wrote it last week, back when we thought we might have baseball soon. It looks like we have a wait on our hands, but that doesn’t mean the Cardinals roster audit isn’t still a fun read, I hope, for fans who miss the team. So here it is: It all still applies. (Also, if you want more Cards business, I host a weekly podcast called "Seeing Red," with legendary St. Louis sports columnist Bernie Miklasz. You can subscribe to it here.

You could get a pretty good sense of how this Cardinals offseason was going to go at the big postseason press conference, right after the Cardinals were swept out of the National League Championship Series by the eventual champion Nationals.

Cardinals fans were happy the team had reached the postseason for the first time since 2015 and had beaten the Braves in the National League Division Series, but the NLCS was a drag, and, more to the point, indicative of the larger offensive issues that had plagued the team all season long. Many fans hoped that the front office would throw down the gauntlet and vow to do whatever it takes to get to the next level in 2020.

That is not exactly what happened. The message was more along the lines of: The ship has been righted, and this is the team you’re getting moving forward. Thus, it wasn’t a surprise that the Cardinals made no major additions this offseason -- adding only two players to the MLB roster, Kwang-Hyun Kim and Brad Miller -- and said goodbye to free agents Marcell Ozuna and Michael Wacha. The Cardinals were helped by the rest of the NL Central’s relative stasis -- Cincinnati excepted -- but, roster-wise, it’s difficult to argue the Cardinals are better than they were last year.

The team begs to differ; it sees internal improvements, both from established veterans who had down years in 2019 to young players making big steps forward. Will they be right? That’s why they play all those games all year -- to find out.

Thus, for the fifth consecutive year, it is time for my Cardinals roster audit, a look at every relevant St. Louis player heading into the 2020 season. Pretty soon, we'll get our first look at what this Cardinals team is. For now, here's my best guess. (Also, if you want more Cards business, I host a weekly podcast called "Seeing Red," with legendary St. Louis sports columnist Bernie Miklasz. You can subscribe to it here.)

ROTATION

Jack Flaherty

The Cardinals hoped he might develop into an ace heading into last year, but even the rosiest projections never quite saw this. By the end of last year, it was actively surprising every time he gave up a hit (0.91 ERA in the second half). He has that Chris Carpenter orneriness that makes you not only dread facing him in the batter’s box, but actually be a little bit scared of him. That rusty-nail quality is extending to his contract negotiations -- he has not only rejected any extension suggestions, he’s even going to year-to-year on his annual salary so he can maximize what he gets in arbitration. He is betting on himself, big-time. It sure looks like a great bet from here. He doesn’t have to be as great as he was last year to be an NL Cy Young Award contender. But he might go and do so anyway.

Carlos Martínez

There always seems to be some sort of drama with Martínez, which is why this spring has been so telling: Everything is going swimmingly. He’s healthy, he’s in great shape and he’s on the team’s training schedule for once. Just one month ago it was up in the air whether he would be in the rotation or in the bullpen; now he looks like the team’s No. 2 starter. If you’re looking for ways for the Cardinals to improve on last year, a healthy, engaged, tip-top Martínez is a pretty fantastic one.

Dakota Hudson

The analytic sorts see regression for him this year, if just because of a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. But anyone who watched him in 2019 saw his occasional, almost inexplicable bouts with wildness, getting himself into jams he’d have to fight his way out of. The control better get, uh, under control in 2020, and if it does, he’s an ideal third or fourth starter: A ground-ball specialist with one of the best defensive infields in the game behind him. The Cardinals don’t need him to be an ace: They just need him not to make it so hard on himself.

Adam Wainwright

OK, now this feels like it’ll finally be Wainwright’s last year. Bringing him back in 2019 felt like charity for a beloved franchise icon; doing so in 2020 is a sort-of necessary nod to nostalgia. He might have been the best pitcher in the playoffs, which speaks to his mental toughness and his intelligent approach, but asking him to pitch at that level for 170 innings is … optimistic. Wainwright has meant so much for the Cardinals organization that you want him to finish his career on a happy note. Here’s hoping giving Wainwright one more one last ride is a feel-good story again.

Miles Mikolas

He’s expected to miss the first month of the season with a right flexor tendon strain, but that’s a fancy way of saying “the Cardinals really, really hope to avoid the nuclear option with Mikolas’ arm.” Having a slightly healthy Mikolas is sort of beside the point of having him; he’s there because he’s big and durable and gives you quality innings. The Cardinals have the rotation depth to survive his absence, but that depth could erode quickly, particularly if Wainwright and/or Hudson falter. The Cardinals will wait as long as possible to get Mikolas healthy. But it might not be entirely their choice.

While Mikolas is out (and if anyone else in the rotation drops out), here’s a quick and dirty power rankings of other rotation options:

1) Kwang Hyun Kim, LHP: He’s getting the majority of the reps in Spring Training, and the Cards are clearly stretching him out. It still feels like the path of least resistance is to have Kim take on Andrew Miller’s role in the bullpen, or as a swingman, and let one of the kids take a crack at the rotation, but it doesn’t look like that’s happening right now. Either way: KK, as he prefers to be called, has been as advertised all spring. Nasty slider, efficient and goes right after hitters.

2) Daniel Ponce de Leon, RHP: He was a lifesaver two years ago but took a step back last year. He has been fantastic all spring and has a competitive edge that the team loves. Also, he’s 28 -- the same age as Martínez (!) -- so it’s probably time for the Cardinals to get out of him whatever they can.

3) Austin Gomber, LHP: He has been a revelation this spring, with a new cutter that even Yadier Molina has been raving about.

4) Génesis Cabrera, LHP: Behind Gomber in the pecking order, but then again, he’s three years younger.

5) John Gant, RHP: Probably slated for the swingman role again, but he can fill in when needed.

BULLPEN

All the Cardinals bullpen arms, in alphabetical order:

• John Brebbia, RHP: He’s the most media-friendly, affable, lovable guy on the roster -- his beard has its own zip code -- but it helps that he backs it up by consistently being absolute nails on the mound. He was tied for second on the team in appearances last year -- I bet he leads this year.

• Brett Cecil, LHP: That four-year, $30.5 million deal he signed prior to the 2017 season has not worked out (4.86 ERA with St. Louis), and he might not even make the roster.

• Junior Fernandez, RHP: The revelation of this camp as he may have won himself a roster spot. And it’s possible by the end of the year, he’s 2020’s version of the next guy ...

• Giovanny Gallegos, RHP: He was incredible in 2019, one of the very best relievers in baseball, but the Cardinals relied on him so much that he was mostly out of gas by the end of the year.

• Ryan Helsley, RHP: He was sneaky dominant all postseason; in 5 1/3 innings, he gave up one hit, one walk and struck out eight. If you’re looking for a stealth closer candidate, it’s him.

• Jordan Hicks, RHP: His arm injury happened during Albert Pujols’ return to St. Louis, which is why you didn’t notice it until it was already over. He’s slated to be back by the All-Star break, but neither the team nor him is in a hurry. If the Cardinals make the postseason, he could be a jaw-dropper of a weapon.

• Alex Reyes, RHP: No one’s given up on this former top prospect … but no one is measuring him for the Hall of Fame anymore, either. He’s thinned down and looks relaxed and comfortable for the first time in years this spring, but the team sees him as a reliever now, not a starter.

• Tyler Webb, LHP: Webb initially won points for not being Cecil, but he’s been a little bit better than that. With the new three-batter rule on reliever usage, he’ll have to be.

• Kodi Whitley, RHP: Every year the Cardinals have some guy you’ve never heard of show up and just start blowing guys away. Whitley is this year’s top candidate.

CATCHER

Yadier Molina

Not only does he look terrific -- bouncing around in a way we haven’t seen in the spring for a decade -- he and the team are negotiating yet another extension. That may seem awfully optimistic for a near-38-year-old catcher who had a .312 on-base percentage last year, but the Cardinals will let him catch as long as he wants to. That is apparently going to be “forever.”

Matt Wieters

Wieters was handy last year, and ended up getting into 67 games, which is more than Cardinals backup catchers usually get into. He has bursts of power, but his OBP fell off a cliff last year (.268). He is the platonic ideal of a backup catcher to Molina, which is to say his defense is fine, he runs into a fastball every once in a while and he doesn’t complain about playing time.

Andrew Knizner

The Cardinals keep developing exciting catching prospects and then end up having nowhere to put them. It was Carson Kelly in the past, it’s Knizner (No. 6 prospect per MLB Pipeline) now and it’ll be Ivan Herrera (No. 4) or Julio Rodriguez (No. 15) next. Sorry, kid: This is Yadi’s world, you’re just temporarily renting some space.

INFIELDERS

Matt Carpenter, 3B

There’s no player more key to the Cardinals’ 2020 success than Carpenter, which should probably be alarming. He was a disaster from the get-go in 2019, to the point that the respected veteran was benched for most of the last month of the season, and not only did no one complain, the Cardinals had one of their better months of the year. He was an MVP candidate just 18 months ago … but those 18 months seem awfully long ago. He should be better than last year. But will that be nearly enough?

Paul DeJong, SS

The Cardinals didn’t have a backup for him at all last year, and you saw the results: A terrific start to the season, one that got him on the All-Star team, was eroded by how exhausted he was by the end of the year. He hit .175 in the final month and had just one extra-base hit in 33 postseason plate appearances. He’s an incredible defensive player and arguably one of the more underappreciated players in baseball, but the Cardinals really need to give him a day off occasionally.

Tommy Edman, UTIL

Is Tommy Edman the reason the Cardinals won the NL Central last year? Maybe! His fantastic September allowed the Cardinals to bench Carpenter, and he just kept coming up with big hit after big hit. Now he seems locked in as the team’s Ben Zobrist-type, and they’re a lot better off if they can keep him as that rather than force him into third base or left field full time.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

He didn’t turn out to be the MVP candidate we were all talking ourselves into; he didn’t even make the All-Star Game, for the first time since 2012. He picked a lousy time to have the worst year of his career, particularly because his five-year contract is just beginning this year. He’s still the best hitter the Cardinals have, and one who took his 2019 struggles -- particularly his postseason ones -- rather hard.

Brad Miller, UTIL

A late addition to the roster, Miller is a guy who can hit but can’t stay healthy. That’s been a problem already this spring, but if he can fill in whenever the Cardinals need him, he can be the left-handed Jedd Gyorko they’ve been looking for.

Edmundo Sosa, SS

The longtime defensive specialist prospect has started hitting this spring, and the fact that he can play shortstop, combined with the release of Yairo Muñoz, may just secure him a roster spot.

Kolten Wong, 2B

The team’s lineup MVP -- and it was either him or Flaherty for team MVP -- put it all together in 2019, not only finally winning a long-deserved Gold Glove Award, but actually leading the team in OBP. He was the rock for the entire team, the one guy you knew what you were getting from every night. He’d love to be the leadoff man, and it might be time to try him there.

OUTFIELDERS

Harrison Bader, CF

The Cardinals desperately want to pencil him in center field for 150 games and let him save dozens of runs with his brilliant defense. He just needs to hit a little. (His OPS dropped from .756 in 2018 to .680 last year). They’re still tinkering with his swing this spring, and there have been some results ... but just some. The key to him holding onto his spot may be how the rest of the lineup is hitting. If the Cardinals are scoring runs, they’ll be happy to let Bader hit eighth and be a genius in center.

Dylan Carlson, OF

For all the great prospects the Cardinals have had, they haven’t had a slam-dunk, ready-to-play-on-Opening-Day potential superstar since Albert Pujols. Even the late Oscar Taveras needed some seasoning. Carlson has looked like the best outfielder on the roster all spring and might force his way onto the Opening Day roster. If you think the Cardinals' offense is going to take a big step forward this year, Carlson is the reason why.

Austin Dean, OF

The Cardinals picked up him from the Marlins as another body for the outfield, and he may hang around until Carlson officially takes over.

Dexter Fowler, RF

He still has two more years on his deal, so he has the first right to his right-field spot. But the team, and definitely the fans, are running out of excuses for him. He has been a disaster this spring, after a nightmare of a September and postseason last year. He was good in August, and this team is never better when he’s atop the lineup and getting on base. But there are a lot of young outfielders itching for playing time. He may be best as a fourth outfielder these final two years.

Tyler O'Neill, LF

Bro'Neill still has light-tower power and impressive speed, but it just doesn’t manifest itself in results just yet. He strikes out too much, he disappears for stretches at a time and he has a tendency to take strange routes to fly balls. The Cardinals have yet to give him a full run at a position, with good reason: He has yet to prove he deserves one. And then he’ll hit an outside changeup 440 feet to the opposite field and you wonder how he doesn’t do that all the time. This is his best chance to establish himself. He might not get another one.

Rangel Ravelo, OF

The Minor League vet is an excellent bat off the bench, as well as a backup for Goldschmidt and occasional corner outfielder, and he’s basically what the Cardinals wanted José Martínez to be last year.

Lane Thomas, OF

He was excellent in his short run in 2019, and he was just about to get regular playing time when he got hurt late. Carlson’s about to pass him, but if Fowler or O’Neill -- or both -- struggle, Thomas will get every opportunity to show off.

MANAGER

Mike Shildt

Shildt took some heat for a slow hook in the postseason, but on the whole, he has been such a dramatic improvement on the last manager that he’s essentially become a franchise staple already. The front office adores him, and he’s a baseball rat who’s so dedicated to the game that he got married on a Friday this spring and was back out managing the next day. He has shown a deftness with veterans -- the Fowler and Carpenter situations would sink lesser communicators -- and a good instinct for the bullpen. His players love him, the front office loves him and the fans love him. That’s a trifecta you don’t see often. That usually doesn’t last for managers, so enjoy the ride while you can, Mike.