Speedy Buxton chasing Ichiro, Coleman

On May 23, 2017, in Baltimore, the Twins’ Byron Buxton had second base stolen in the third inning. Despite a nearly perfect throw from Orioles catcher Welington Castillo, Buxton got to the bag just in time with a head-first slide.

But then, Buxton’s momentum carried him past second, and before he could reach back, shortstop J.J. Hardy tagged him out. The mistake went down in the record book as a caught stealing.

Buxton has not been caught since.

Minnesota’s speedy center fielder is quickly establishing himself as one of the most effective and efficient basestealers in today’s game -- and maybe in baseball history. He is now on a run of 32 consecutive successful stolen-base attempts, including three so far in 2019. It’s the longest such streak in Twins history, and the longest in the Majors in nearly seven years.

Streaks of 32+ successful steal attempts, since 2002
Byron Buxton (MIN): 32 attempts, 5/24/2017 to present
Coco Crisp (OAK): 36 attempts, 7/16/2011 to 6/19/2012
Carl Crawford (TB): 32 attempts, 8/1/2008 to 5/26/2009
Jimmy Rollins (PHI): 39 attempts, 9/1/2007 to 7/19/2008
Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): 45 attempts, 4/29/2006 to 5/16/2007
Source: Elias Sports Bureau

Ichiro’s streak is the longest on record by an American League player. Vince Coleman holds the Major League record, swiping 50 consecutive bases without getting caught for the Cardinals between Sept. 18, 1988, and July 26, 1989. (Coleman led the National League in steals in each of his first six seasons, from 1985-’90, racking up 549 during that span at an 82.7 percent success rate.)

Coleman (752) and Ichiro (509) are two of the 39 players in baseball history with at least 500 career steals. Buxton has a long way to go to reach that sort of territory, but the talented 25-year-old has made the most of the times he has run.

After going just 2-for-4 in steal attempts in his debut season (2015), Buxton improved to 10-for-12 the next year. He’s nearly perfect since ‘17, with only that one mishap in Baltimore standing in his way of a longer streak.

Highest stolen base success rate since 2017
Minimum 25 attempts
1) Byron Buxton: 97.4%
2) Mike Trout: 88.7%
3) Xander Bogaerts: 88.5%
4) Jacoby Ellsbury: 88.0%
5) Jackie Bradley Jr.: 87.1%

Highest career stolen base success rate
Minimum 50 attempts (Stat available back to 1951)
1) Byron Buxton: 90.7%
2) Jackie Bradley Jr.: 89.1%
3) Tony Campana: 88.0%
4) Alexi Casilla: 87.9%
5) Chase Utley: 87.5%

Watch Buxton run, and his success isn’t exactly a mystery.

According to Statcast, his average sprint speed has been above the elite 30 feet-per-second mark and ranked first or second in the Majors every year since he debuted in 2015. Even with spotty playing time, Buxton owns the second-fastest double ever tracked by Statcast (7.21 seconds), three of the six fastest triples and the two fastest home runs (including a record 13.85 seconds).

Of course, jaw-dropping speed doesn’t guarantee efficient basestealing. Dee Gordon, another top burner, has led the league in steals three times, but he also led it in times caught stealing three times, with a career success rate around 77 percent.

Buxton’s near-perfection is the result not just of natural ability, but also a lot of work. Late in the 2017 season, he talked to MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger about the time he spent studying opposing pitchers.

"It's more that I've been doing my homework before the game," Buxton said. "I've been looking at video at whoever is starting that day. Does his head do something different? Does his shoulder do something different? Does his knee go a different way? Where does he set up on the rubber? Things to give me that slight edge."

Throwing out Buxton requires requires the defense to do everything right. The pitcher has to do a good job holding him close to the base, and then deliver the pitch quickly. The catcher has to get off a strong, accurate throw. And the infielder covering second base has to get down a good tag.

Buxton’s most recent steal came Tuesday at Citi Field. In the top of the second inning, he stood on first base against Jacob deGrom, with pitcher Kyle Gibson batting -- after his blazing speed prevented the Mets from turning an inning-ending double play on a routine grounder to shortstop.

After taking a modest lead on the first pitch, Buxton took off on a 1-0 count and was able to jump out to a 26.1-foot secondary lead by the time deGrom released the pitch. (The MLB average for a successful steal is about 22 feet.) That lead, plus Buxton’s elite speed, put catcher Travis d’Arnaud in a nearly impossible position, despite the fact that deGrom’s 96 mph high fastball was a great pitch to handle. Whipping an on-target 82 mph throw to second, d’Arnaud recorded a pop time of 1.92 seconds that tied for his third fastest since 2015, well below the MLB average of 2.01 seconds on steal attempts at second.

It was no use. By the time second baseman Robinson Cano caught the throw, Buxton already had gotten his left hand on the bag.

This time, Buxton stayed on, so there was no cheap “caught stealing” to be had. The streak continued.