Harper (MVP), Wheeler (Cy) BBWAA finalists

PHILADELPHIA -- The last time Phillies fans heard from Bryce Harper, he told reporters on Oct. 3 that he hoped to “talk to you guys in November.”

Specifically, he meant Nov. 18.

That is when the Baseball Writers’ Association of America will announce the 2021 National League MVP Award winner. The BBWAA revealed its three finalists on Monday night: Harper, Nationals outfielder Juan Soto and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. It also announced that Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, Brewers righty Corbin Burnes and Dodgers righty Max Scherzer are finalists for the NL Cy Young Award.

• All-time winners: MVP | Cy Young

The NL Cy Young winner will be announced at 6 p.m. ET on Nov. 17, exclusively on MLB Network.

The NL MVP will be revealed at 6 p.m. ET on Nov. 18, on MLB Network.

• Complete 2021 Awards coverage

Both Harper and Wheeler built strong cases to win.

Let’s start with Harper.

He hit .309 this season with 42 doubles, one triple, 35 home runs, 84 RBIs, a 1.044 OPS and a 179 OPS+. Harper led MLB in doubles, slugging percentage (.615), OPS and OPS+. He ranked second in the NL in fWAR (6.6), on-base percentage (.429) and walks (100); third in batting average and outfield assists (10); sixth in home runs and runs (101) and ninth in bWAR (5.9). He even tied for 17th in stolen bases (13). Harper is just the fourth outfielder in AL/NL history to have at least 100 runs, 100 walks, 40 doubles and 35 home runs in a season. Babe Ruth, Stan Musial and Barry Bonds are the others.

Harper had 49 extra-base hits and 65 walks in the second half. Since the first All-Star Game in 1933, only Jimmie Foxx and Bonds had as many extra-base hits and walks after the break.

Harper’s numbers could have looked even better, except he hit with runners in scoring position in only 18.5 percent of his plate appearances, tied for the 148th-lowest mark out of 4,605 players with 125 or more plate appearances since 2008. It is why Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said last month that one of his offseason priorities is finding a legitimate leadoff hitter.

Wheeler went 14-10 with a 2.78 ERA in 32 starts in 2021. He led baseball in innings pitched (213 1/3), complete games (three), shutouts (two), batters faced (849) and bWAR (7.6). He also led the NL in strikeouts (247) and finished second in the league in fWAR (7.3), FIP (2.59) and xERA (2.78).

Wheeler pitched 34 more innings than Scherzer and 46 1/3 more innings than Burnes. Burnes averaged 5.96 innings per start and would have needed to make eight more starts just to match Wheeler’s workload.

The Athletic’s Jayson Stark crunched some numbers in an Oct. 1 story and found that if Wheeler, Burnes and Scherzer never threw a pitch beyond the sixth inning, Wheeler would have the best ERA of the three:

Wheeler: 2.32
Burnes: 2.34
Scherzer: 2.60

“I never even thought about a Cy Young until this year, honestly,” Wheeler said on the final weekend of the season in Miami. “I never had a chance at it. I’ve had a couple good halves, and last year was pretty good. I don’t know. It’d be pretty special, obviously. It’s the biggest honor you can get. It was the consistency. That’s what I’ve never really had. I think that’s something I take out of this season: I was consistent the whole year.”