How will Astros neutralize red-hot Harper?

This is the Bryce Harper who was promised all along, taking advantage of his most sustained opportunity on the game’s biggest stage to emphatically deliver on all the hype that’s been inescapable for him since his teenage years -- and, in the process, taking a rabid Philadelphia fanbase to the cusp of an improbable World Series championship.

But this seemingly impenetrable Astros pitching staff -- a bona fide fortress of depth and nastiness -- will serve as his biggest test.

Philadelphia's Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber have also showcased game-changing power, but make no mistake: Houston’s biggest assignment will be the need to neutralize the red-hot Harper, who will enter Game 1 at Minute Maid Park on Friday having reached base safely in all 11 postseason games, hitting .419/.444/.907 (a 1.351 OPS) along the way.

What’s the Astros’ best path to success against Harper, especially in the biggest situations?

A bullpen shake-up

Much has been made of the fact that the Astros have not carried a left-handed pitcher in their bullpen throughout their first two playoff matchups, electing to carry right-hander Seth Martinez instead in the American League Championship Series against a righty-dominated Yankees lineup. (Martinez didn’t pitch.)

It’s not for a lack of options, because they’ve had Will Smith waiting in the wings all along. With Harper and Schwarber looming, it looks like it’s time to deploy the veteran lefty.

"If there was a roster for me to make, hopefully, it's this one,” Smith said on Thursday. “They haven't told us yet who's going to be on [the roster]. Our right-handers are more than capable of taking care of it. They got all the lefties out that they had to in the Mariners and Yankees series. But we'll see what happens in the next couple of days."

It’s worth noting that of Harper’s 53 regular-season homers across the last two seasons, only seven have come against left-handed pitchers (though he did take Braves lefty Dylan Lee deep in Game 3 of the National League Division Series). Harper just didn’t get the ball in the air as well against lefties this year, putting the ball on the ground about 40 percent more often than he did against righties. It’s tougher to do meaningful damage that way.

Harper, 2021: 31 homers vs. RHP (40.1% GB), 4 homers vs. LHP (42.6% GB)

Harper, 2022: 15 homers vs. RHP (37.1% GB), 3 homers vs. LHP (52.4% GB)

Smith is no stranger to the Fall Classic stage, having been a key cog of the Atlanta bullpen last postseason, even recording the final out of the World Series against his now-teammates on the Astros. He pitched well following a surprising midseason trade from the Braves to Astros, posting a 3.27 ERA with 24 strikeouts and four walks in 22 innings, regaining his strike-throwing ability after losing the zone in the first half.

And here’s the kicker: Smith has faced Harper more often than any hitter except Anthony Rizzo. Harper’s career line: 2-for-14 (.143), no extra-base hits, four walks, six strikeouts.

“There's no secrets between us,” Smith said. “He knows what I have. I know what he's capable of doing. It's just a matter of making pitches and trying to get weak contact.”

What can righties do?

Still, the Astros’ pitching staff has thrived to this point throwing their best righties against opponents’ best lefties -- because, believe it or not, every high-leverage right-hander the Astros have prominently featured this postseason has fared better against left-handed hitters.

In modern baseball, many pitchers will rely on offspeed and breaking pitches that run away from hitters -- sliders to same-handed hitters, changeups to opposite-handed hitters. As MLB.com's David Adler noted, Harper is indeed being aggressively pitched to the outer half this postseason -- and he’s thriving by driving the ball the other way, with authority.

But that’s not what some of the Astros’ high-leverage arms will figure to do -- and it could spell trouble for Harper. Here’s how Harper has fared when putting the ball in play against each pitch type from right-handers since he joined the Phillies in 2019:

The first thing to note here is that Harper is just a really, really good overall hitter against all manner of right-handed pitching when he makes contact. That’s what the Phillies are paying him $330 million to do. But in admittedly smaller sample sizes, if there’s anything that Harper does seem to struggle with when facing righties, it’s in doing damage to splitters and hitting curveballs over the fence.

That’s where Héctor Neris and Ryne Stanek come in.

Both Neris (.538 opposing OPS by lefties) and Stanek (.501 opposing OPS) have stifled left-handed hitting this season by using splitters as their go-to secondary pitches. Neris is getting a ridiculous 52.4 percent whiff rate on his split, with opponents also swinging through 44 percent of Stanek’s splitters. Considering that’s one of the very few ways to get Harper to swing through right-handed pitches and not be able to do too much damage, those two could be the best bet to face Harper in big situations if Smith isn’t in the picture.

"I think the split had been a good pitch to either induce weak contact or get me back into counts,” Stanek said. “And then I think my fastball got a little bit more efficient this year, so it played up a little bit better. I think I commanded the ball a little bit better this year in the spots I needed to to be successful.”

It should also help the Astros that Harper just doesn’t see too many right-handed splitters in general -- meaning that it’s something relatively novel that he’ll be seeing on the biggest stage, one that also plays into Neris’ and Stanek’s biggest strengths.

The Astros’ bullpen has been so effective that Stanek hasn’t even factored into the first two rounds, throwing only two innings across the seven games. Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero and Neris have carried the brunt of the load out of the bullpen -- but that could free up Stanek for these big matchups when necessary.

That only accounts for high-leverage, late-game situations, and most of Harper’s plate appearances will likely come against starting pitchers. Framber Valdez should be well-equipped to succeed as a lefty who generates tons of ground balls. Justin Verlander attacked Harper with a steady diet of fastballs when these teams faced off in early October, while Lance McCullers Jr. and relievers leaned on their curveballs -- though Harper didn’t face any of Houston’s leverage right-handers in that series.

“You just kind of break down the numbers and see where the deficiencies are and where you can go and where you can go in certain counts,” Stanek said. “I think a lot of that kind of depends on situational awareness in the game. Situation dictates a lot of how you attack certain guys."

But if there’s anything to be learned from this postseason, it’s that it’s never wise to count Harper out, even against opponents’ best stuff -- and that’s why he’s got the Phillies on the cusp of a championship.