This Braves player has been the most valuable

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Triple-A Gwinnett’s Opening Day starter has been Atlanta’s most valuable piece through the season’s first quarter.

Sounds ridiculous, huh? Yeah, I get that Ronald Acuña Jr. is currently a heavy favorite to win the National League MVP Award, Spencer Strider is a top NL Cy Young Award candidate and Sean Murphy is tied with the Rays' Wander Franco in third among all MLB players, trailing only Acuña and the D-backs' Zac Gallen, in fWAR.

But have their contributions been any more valuable than what Bryce Elder has done to stabilize an injury-depleted starting rotation? The Braves own the NL’s second-best record despite Max Fried and Kyle Wright combining to complete just 44 2/3 innings.

Or maybe, it’s best to say the Braves lead the NL in starter’s ERA (3.30), despite just 20 percent (44 2/3 of 223 1/3) of their starting pitching innings being completed by Fried, who finished second in last year’s NL Cy Young Award balloting, or Wright, who produced MLB’s only 20-win season in 2022.

Strider and Charlie Morton have been great, producing sub 3.00 ERAs. But the rotation’s most effective member has been Elder, who is tied for MLB’s second-best ERA (1.94) with Giants' Alex Cobb. Elder has allowed over two runs in just two of his eight starts this season. He’s allowed four runs in just two starts. Well, one if you throw out his six-inning effort against the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp on March 31.

It was hard to project how Elder might fare this year. He helped the Braves win a fifth straight NL East title, posting a 1.65 ERA over his final five MLB starts last year. But he was sent to Minor League camp a little over two weeks from this year’s Opening Day.

So, Elder made his Opening Day start for Gwinnett and then came to Atlanta to fill Fried’s rotation spot five days later. All he has done since is throw a team-high 46 1/3 innings.

Is Elder’s success sustainable? His 89.7 mph average fastball velocity certainly doesn’t create a lot of optimism. Nor does the fact he has a 4.56 Expected ERA, and his Expected Weighted On-Base Average (.332) is higher than his Weighted On-Base Average (.285).

Elder doesn’t miss a lot of bats, and his 48.5 hard-hit percentage ranks 107th out of 118 pitchers, who have realized at least 100 Batted Ball Events.

But Elder’s secondary pitches create reason to believe his production isn’t going to suddenly fall off. Opponents have hit just .116 (.195 Expected Batting Average) with a .145 slugging percentage (.265 xSLG) against his slider. His changeup has also become a plus pitch.

The metrics indicate Elder can't sustain his current level of success. But his contributions over the season’s first seven weeks can’t be overstated. He has been as valuable as any other Braves player.