O's face tough starting rotation decisions 

SARASOTA, Fla. -- It’s still early in Spring Training, and especially for the Orioles’ pitchers. Like the baseball world en masse, the O’s are being extremely cautious in this shortened Grapefruit League slate, with health at the forefront. To that end, by the conclusion of Saturday’s tilt with the Yankees at Ed Smith Stadium, only two arms with real potential for the Opening Day rotation will have appeared.

But it’s not too early to at least take stock of the rotation battle, one that is marked by opportunity with merely two spots cemented in John Means and veteran newcomer Jordan Lyles. The rotation competition as a whole is wide open -- and mostly internal. The next three weeks will be telling for manager Brandon Hyde and the front office in crafting a roster for the O’s Opening Day matchup vs. the Rays on April 8, and, perhaps by necessity, more telling than in past years.

“I think [it’s] more stock than normal when you have a team full of guys in a kind of similar spot, similar places,” Hyde said. “You don't want to evaluate somebody on three or four outings and Spring Training, but it is going to play a part in the fact that they're all kind of in a similar boat right now.

“I'm hoping that all these guys pitch lights-out these next three weeks so [that] we have tough decisions,” he added. “But yeah, I think you could see all sorts of creative things -- not just with us but around the league.”

So let’s take a look at the options behind Means and Lyles, broken down by their current status as the spring roars on:

The inside track: Bruce Zimmermann, Zac Lowther and Jorge López
Of the Orioles-bred pitching -- meaning pitchers not signed on the fly last season -- none proved steadier than Zimmermann. There were outings where situations ballooned on him, but he provided reliable innings on the whole, an invaluable trait as the O’s don’t expect much more than five frames from their starters by Opening Day. So it appears that a rotation spot is Zimmermann’s to lose this spring. The most intriguing question may be whether the Baltimore native gets a chance to pitch the home opener.

Among players drafted by the Orioles, Lowther might have the best chance to crack the rotation given his track record (more so pre- the pandemic-canceled 2020 season) and his pedigree as the club’s No. 22 prospect. As for López, he’d join Lyles as the only right-handers of the bunch, should the rotation go as chalked. Working against him? López fared far better as a reliever than a starter in 2021, and on Saturday, he was shifted from a scheduled start to coming out of the bullpen, though Hyde affirmed López will be built up as planned.

Need to show something: Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, Alexander Wells and Spenser Watkins
Numbers, both past and those that come out of Spring Training, are far from the Orioles’ sole consideration. Working in favor of this group is their familiarity; Akin and Wells started their careers in the organization, Kremer joined in 2018 and Watkins was a player the O’s targeted early this winter for a reunion. He’s the only member of the group to have debuted in Grapefruit League action so far, working past defensive miscues to get tagged for six runs (three earned) across 2 2/3 innings on Friday.

But all, with ERAs no lower than 6.50 in their rookie 2021 seasons, will need to show something this spring in order to get close to the rotation come Opening Day. Relief is also possible. Otherwise, a Minor League assignment could be in their futures.

Intrigue abound: D.L. Hall, Tyler Wells, Mike Baumann and Grayson Rodriguez
Here lies a group with tantalizing talent but uncertain futures. Hall (No. 3), Baumann (No. 10) and Rodriguez (No. 2) all fall within the O’s Top 10 prospect rankings, per MLB Pipeline, but none have a solidified role. Hall and Rodriguez will be starter candidates, but likely not until a later point in the regular season. Hall is coming off a lengthy left elbow injury and Rodriguez, the top pitching prospect in baseball, will be focusing first on ballooning a workload that saw him pitch more than five innings just once in 2021.

Baumann, though, could be a dark horse candidate: a classically built four-pitch arm who has torn up the Minors and threw a no-hitter in 2019. He will need to build on four appearances (two mostly forgettable) from when he debuted in the Majors last season, but aiding him is his more veteran status (as far as the O’s clubhouse goes), as he’s set to turn 27 by the end of the season.

Wells will be interesting to watch, too. He was a rousing success as a Rule 5 Draft pick last year but pitched exclusively as a reliever and part-time closer. Like Baumann, the O’s are stretching Wells out this spring for a starting opportunity, but it remains to be seen if that’s simply to keep his role and health flexible. Last year was Wells’ first since 2018, and it’s always easier to ramp down in-season than build up on the fly.