It's Wild Card or bust for Brewers as Cards clinch division

MILWAUKEE -- After winning seven of eight coming out of the All-Star break, the Brewers went to bed in Boston on July 30 atop the National League Central with a four-game lead over the second-place Cardinals and 61 games to go. It was a good spot.

Almost two months later, they are in a different spot.

A race that flipped in August was finished Tuesday night at American Family Field, where the Cardinals clinched the Central with a 6-2 win over the Brewers to open Milwaukee’s make-or-break final homestand. Starter Adrian Houser exited early with a groin injury as St. Louis pulled away, and what has been evident for weeks was finally official: For Milwaukee, it’s Wild Card or bust.

The Brewers still have postseason hopes thanks to the fading Phillies, who played about 90 miles down Interstate 94 at Wrigley Field and lost for the eighth time in their past 11 games to keep Milwaukee within 1 1/2 games of a postseason berth. The Phillies hold the tiebreaker, so if they go 5-4 in their remaining games, the Brewers would need to go 7-1 to win the final Wild Card. If the Phillies go 4-5, Milwaukee needs to go 6-2. If Philadelphia goes 3-6, the Brewers need to go 5-3. You get the idea.

While Milwaukee pondered the math, the Cardinals were popping bottles of champagne on a rivals’ turf, just like the Brewers did at Busch Stadium when they clinched a postseason spot in 2018.

“It doesn’t matter if it’s this field, their field or another field. We just didn’t really play well enough all season to deserve winning the division,” outfielder Christian Yelich said. “You get what you deserve in sports a lot, and we just, for whatever reason, weren’t able to put it all together. I’m not saying we don’t still have a shot. We still have a shot at a Wild Card. We have eight games left and are a few back so we have to try to finish strong. Regroup after a tough one tonight and try and slide in that way. Then you never know what can happen.”

In the division, things flipped beginning right around the Trade Deadline when both teams turned in different directions. Since July 30, Milwaukee is 25-28. The Cardinals are 37-17. In those first three weeks, the Brewers went from four games ahead of St. Louis to five games behind. By Sept. 7, the gulf grew as wide as 9 1/2 games.

“Watching from afar, they've played well in all facets of the game,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell said of the Cards going into this series. “They've scored a whole bunch of runs. They have a whole bunch of hitters playing at a very high level. Lars Nootbaar has quietly had a really good second half. He's probably gotten very little attention with some of the other names they have on their roster who have also had excellent second halves.

“They've pitched exceptionally well. Miles Mikolas has had a quiet, consistent season, which is kind of who he is. The back of their bullpen, they've got [Ryan] Helsley, who's had arguably the best year as a closer with a nod to [the Mets’] Edwin Díaz.”

The Brewers got doses of all of that a few hours later. Seven Cardinals had a hit including Nootbaar, and RBIs came from everywhere, from Paul Goldschmidt’s first-inning sacrifice fly to light-hitting Andrew Knizner’s two-run home run off Brent Suter in the fourth after Houser had to suddenly depart. Mikolas didn’t allow a hit until the fourth inning or a run until the sixth. Helsley threw the hardest pitch in MLB this season -- a 104.2 mph fastball to Rowdy Tellez in the eighth.

When Helsley completed his dominant, two-inning, 25-pitch outing, the Cardinals’ celebration was on. They posed for a team photo on the mound while Brewers fans were still making their way to the exits.

“They earned the right to do it,” Counsell said. “They’ve had a good season. They earned the celebration. That’s how it works.”

“We’ve been on the other side,” Suter said, “so we know how good it feels and we know how crappy it feels, because we got eliminated there [in St. Louis] in 2017. We clinched there in 2018, clinched there in ‘20, and now they clinched here. Two good teams, so you’re going to have years when you’re clinching divisions [and postseason berths] like that. That’s part of it, but it’s definitely not fun when you’re on this side of it.”

The Brewers need to get hot and get some help to earn a rematch. St. Louis is the No. 3 seed in the NL and will host the lowest-ranked Wild Card. So, whichever team captures the final berth will go to Busch Stadium for a three-game series.

“They’ve got a chance to do some damage in the playoffs, for sure,” Suter said. “We hope to see them there.”