Breaking down Brewers' season after early exit

This story was excerpted from Adam McCalvy’s Brewers Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

MILWAUKEE -- It’s ridiculous to suggest that because the Brewers didn’t make it past the first round of the postseason for the fourth consecutive berth, that a 92-win regular season and a National League Central title was all for nothing.

Just like it’s ridiculous to suggest that Brewers fans who showed up 2.55 million strong in 2023 shouldn’t be frustrated about getting bites of the apple without ever enjoying the whole thing.

The reality is somewhere in the middle for a franchise that on one hand is enjoying more success than any stretch of club history -- five postseason appearances in the last six years, three division crowns and a winning percentage eclipsed only by the Braves and Dodgers among NL teams -- and on the other hand has not fulfilled its potential once the postseason comes around. The Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10 postseason games while scoring 17 total runs.

Down the stretch in 2023, with the offense clicking and a deep pitching staff which led the NL in ERA all lined up the way they wanted, it looked like this could be the Brewers’ year. Then it all imploded in two nights against the D-backs in the NL Wild Card Series.

“The game’s not fair sometimes,” Christian Yelich said. “But I’m proud of the guys.”

Defining moment: The Brewers built a team to go deep into the postseason with pitching and defense and just enough offense, but the plan fell apart against the D-backs. With Brandon Woodruff felled before the series even began, and with the D-backs forced to start a rookie, Brandon Pfaadt, in Game 1 before they got to their co-aces in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, it was up to Corbin Burnes to put the Brewers in control of the best-of-three series. The offense even spotted him a 3-0 lead.

Burnes couldn’t get the job done. He surrendered consecutive home runs in the third inning for a 3-3 tie, then gave up a go-ahead homer to Arizona’s young catcher Gabriel Moreno in the fourth. Instead of taking control of the series, the Brewers’ backs were against the wall. When it was over the next night, Burnes shouldered his share of the blame, saying, “We didn’t play good baseball the last two days, starting with me.”

“This is a team that’s got a lot of good, young players who will get a chance to do this again year after year,” Burnes said. “But you feel like you let the team down a little bit when you have an opportunity to step up and set the tone.”

What we learned: Power still plays a part in winning baseball.

It’s true the Brewers were much better at scoring runs after picking up Carlos Santana and Mark Canha prior to the Aug. 1 Trade Deadline. The numbers bear that out:

Pre-Deadline:
4.17 runs per game (23rd in MLB)
.688 OPS (26th)

Post-Deadline:
5.15 runs per game (seventh)
.737 OPS (15th)

The problem, however, was that the Brewers never found their power. They actually hit fewer home runs after the Deadline (.98 homers per game, one of only five teams which didn’t homer at least once per night) than they did before (1.04 homers per game), and instead put together long rallies with walks and base hits. But when they couldn’t come up with that last base hit, the offense fizzled. Incredibly, the Brewers put 30 runners on base via hit, walk or hit-by-pitch in the Wild Card Series and scored just five runs.

It’s another instance where the right answer is not “more power!” or “more small ball!” but somewhere in-between. Willy Adames was the Brewers’ only 20-homer hitter in 2023, making it the first full season in which Milwaukee had only one player top 20 home runs since 2013 (Carlos Gomez).

Best development: The Brewers were able to win the National League Central while exposing much of their next wave of players to the Majors. They included Brice Turang, Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick -- Frelick finished fourth among Brewers position players in fWAR (1.4) in only 57 games. The Brewers also introduced surprise contributors like outfielder Blake Perkins and infielder Andruw Monasterio, whose versatility should fit nicely on the 2024 club. Garrett Mitchell missed a chance to build on his successful introduction to MLB in 2022, but he was able to make it back from shoulder surgery to play a handful of games at the end. And hard-throwing reliever Abner Uribe was absolutely electric when he threw strikes.

Uribe and Frelick both finished the season with a bad taste in their mouths, Uribe after letting in a couple of runs in the decisive inning of NL Wild Card Series Game 2 and Frelick after tapping out to the mound in a huge spot with the bases loaded in the eighth inning.

When asked what his primary takeaway would be from 2023, Frelick said, “This feeling. I’m going to sit on this now for the whole offseason. We can analyze the rest of the season at a later point, but this feeling hurts.”

Area for improvement: First base and third base, two positions from which teams typically get run production, have been weak spots for the Brewers for too long. Milwaukee hasn’t ranked in the top half of MLB in fWAR at first base since Eric Thames and Jesús Aguilar split the position in 2019. The Brewers haven’t ranked in the top half of MLB in fWAR at third since 2018, when Travis Shaw hit 32 homers.

One intriguing option for either spot in 2023 is Tyler Black, MLB Pipeline’s No. 4 Brewers prospect. The 23-year-old left-handed hitter led Milwaukee’s Minor League system in runs (105), stolen bases (55) and extra-base hits (55) and ranked among leaders in OPS (second, .930), hits (second, 128), walks (second, 88), total bases (second, 231), slugging percentage (third, .513), RBIs (fourth, 73), home runs (fifth, 18), on-base percentage (fifth, .417) and doubles (sixth, 25). How would that translate to the Majors?

On the rise: The Brewers’ bullpen was a big question mark going into 2023 but now it looks like one of the team’s biggest strengths, with Joel Payamps’ ascent to setup duties, breakthroughs for Elvis Peguero and Trevor Megill and the steady brilliance of left-hander Hoby Milner. But the breakthrough with the biggest implications for the future belonged to Uribe, the 23-year-old who threw the hardest Brewers pitch ever tracked by Statcast: 103.3 mph against the Twins on Aug. 23. When he commands the baseball, Uribe is every bit capable of high-leverage relief, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if one day he follows Devin Williams as Brewers closer.

Team MVP: William Contreras reported to Spring Training with a reputation as an offense-first catcher, intent on becoming an all-around player. Mission accomplished. Contreras led the Brewers offensively with a .289 average, a .457 slugging percentage and an .824 OPS and ranked fifth in Statcast’s catcher framing runs. Contreras’ 5.4 fWAR was the highest in Brewers history for a catcher not named Jonathan Lucroy, who had seasons of 8.2, 7.0, 6.0 and 5.8.