How Crew defied expectations ... and what's next

This story was excerpted from Adam McCalvy’s Brewers Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

MILWAUKEE -- It wasn’t a smooth road, but it is difficult to quibble with where the Brewers wound up at the All-Star break.

The Brewers are in first place in the National League Central at 55-42, and they have been there for all but one day since April 10, and every day since April 29. FanGraphs pegged their postseason odds at 30 percent on Opening Day, and the figure is up to 83.6 percent today.

That’s a surprise to many, including the 88 MLB.com voters who weighed in at the start of the season and mostly picked the Cubs to win the division. The Cardinals were the next-most popular pick, then the Reds and then the Brewers, who had a new manager in Pat Murphy and great uncertainty surrounding a starting rotation that had been the team’s strength for several years.

It’s a different team now, one mostly characterized by defense, speed and youth -- and a much more versatile offense than a year ago. Here’s where they ranked in key categories coming out of the All-Star break:

Winning percentage: .567 (6th in MLB)
Batting average: .255 (tied for fourth)
On-base percentage: .333 (second)
Slugging percentage: .400 (14th)
OPS: .733 (10th)
Runs per game: 4.8 (eighth)
Home runs per game: 1.02 (tied for 21st)
Stolen bases: 133 (second)
ERA: 3.81 (11th)
WHIP: 1.25 (11th)
Strikeout percentage: 21.2 (tied for 25th)
Quality starts: 25 (28th)

“We’ve had our share of bumps along the way, but this is a really good group,” GM Matt Arnold said. “We’re in almost every game, like ‘Murph’ says. I’m excited to see what we can do in the second half.”

Second-half goal: Defend the NL Central crown
After making the postseason in five of the previous six seasons, including division titles in 2018, ‘21 and ‘23, the Brewers were expected by many prognosticators to take step back in ‘24 after losing their top two starters, Corbin Burnes (traded to Orioles) and Brandon Woodruff (offseason right shoulder surgery), and then losing 2023 NL Reliever of the Year Devin Williams to a back injury in Spring Training that cost him the entire first half. But here they are in first place once again, 4 1/2 games up on the second-place Cardinals, with just enough pitching and a young but much more proficient offense. Oh, and Williams is expected back by the end of July.

• Williams progressing, but taking it 'one day at a time'

Likely Trade Deadline strategy: Add pitching (at the right price)
The Brewers’ recent bullpen adds have not panned out (Andrew Chafin last season; Taylor Rogers, Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal in 2022; Daniel Norris and John Curtiss in ‘21) but they will scour that market once again because the need for innings of any kind is clear. Arnold already acquired (and moved on from) Dallas Keuchel, and he jumped the rest of the market by acquiring starter Aaron Civale from the Rays on July 3.

The Brewers do have some pitchers due back from the IL soon after the All-Star break in “length” options Joe Ross and DL Hall, plus Williams and Jared Koenig. But this year and every year shows that a contender can never have too much pitching.

Key second-half player: 1B Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins’ 100 OPS+ at the All-Star break means he was a league-average hitter in the first half. On one hand, that’s pretty good considering he missed the entire 2023 season with the Phillies after tearing the ACL in his left knee and undergoing surgery. On the other hand, Hoskins signed with the Brewers aiming for better, and the hope is that he’ll hit for more power in the second half now that he has his legs under him. Hoskins is 5-for-38 in July, but it’s notable that all five of those hits inflicted damage. He has hit three home runs and two doubles with 10 RBIs this month. The Brewers need more of that right-handed pop after a disappointing 13-13 record against left-handed starters in the first half.

Prospect to watch: RHP Jacob Misiorowski
In a perfect season, the Brewers would probably let Misiorowski (No. 2 prospect, No. 32 overall) spend the entire season honing his command in the Minor Leagues. But this hasn’t been a perfect season. Because of injuries, the Brewers have already used 16 starting pitchers this year, one shy of the franchise record established by the expansion Seattle Pilots in 1969. Misiorowski could be one of the arms to push the club into record territory. The 22-year-old was 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in his final five starts of the first half with Double-A Biloxi, with only seven walks in 26 1/3 innings -- and 38 strikeouts!

"You kind of want to put bubble wrap around that guy right now because he's been awesome,” Arnold said. “Excited to see what he can do. He’s certainly a factor we've talked about in the second half."