After a couple close calls, is 2024 the Phillies' year?

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki's Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

“A tenth of a second.”

Those five words lingered in the Phillies' clubhouse after their stunning loss to the D-backs in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. Bryce Harper had an opportunity in the seventh inning for another iconic postseason moment. The Phils trailed by two with runners on first and second and two outs. But instead of “Bedlam at the Bank II,” Harper flied out to center field to end the inning. The Phillies ultimately lost, 4-2.

“Just missed it,” Harper said afterward. “He threw me the pitch I wanted. I went 2-1 and he threw me a heater, and I just … man, just not being able to come through in that moment just devastates me personally. I feel like I let my team down and let the city of Philadelphia down as well. That’s a moment I feel like I need to come through and … yeah.”

How close did he come to hitting it out?

“I mean, 109 at 44,” Harper said, referring to the ball’s exit velocity (107.6 mph) and launch angle. “So he beat my barrel by a tenth of second, probably.”

It’s crazy to think what might have happened if Harper’s barrel got to the ball a tenth of a second earlier. Maybe it will be different next year? But enough about the past. As the calendar turns to 2024 next week, let’s look ahead.

After all, Spring Training is only seven weeks away.

Biggest question to answer before Spring Training: What’s next?
The Phillies are not finished constructing their 2024 roster, but what will those additions look like? They have said for weeks that any acquisitions will be complementary in nature. Of course, they took a shot at free-agent right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he was the one player for whom they were willing to blow past the next luxury tax threshold.

At this point, it is most likely the Phils find a fourth outfielder to add to the mix of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache and Jake Cave in left field and center field, and another reliever.

One player poised to have a breakout season: Bryson Stott
Stott gets the nod because he is one hot start away from making his first NL All-Star team. Stott batted .280 with 15 home runs, 62 RBIs, a .747 OPS and a 104 OPS+ in 2023. He was a Gold Glove Award finalist. He finished with 4.3 WAR, which was tied with Zack Wheeler for the team lead.

The average baseball fan knows Stott, but they don’t really know him. If he has a good April, May and June, they will.

Prospect to watch in 2024: Mick Abel
Abel is the organization’s No. 2 prospect and the No. 45 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. If he takes a step forward next year, he should push for a promotion. After all, how many times does a team use only five starters for an entire season?

Hint: The Phillies have not used fewer than seven since 1901. It last happened in 2011 (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick).

Abel went 5-6 with a 4.13 ERA in 23 starts between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2023, though his command was an issue -- he struck out 132 and walked 65 in 113 1/3 innings. But Abel finished strong, going 2-1 with a 1.63 ERA in his final five starts. There is a ton of talent there. He just needs to put it all together.

One prediction for the new year: NL East title contenders
Earlier this month at the Winter Meetings, some members of the Phillies' staff were asked about the 14-game difference between themselves and the Braves in the NL East. Is it really that wide of a gap, a few wondered?

Certainly, two consecutive victories over Atlanta in the NL Division Series says it isn’t, but the Phils want to challenge the Braves for a division title in 2024. To do it, they must avoid another slow start. Philadelphia was 25-32 on June 2. Then, the Phillies went 65-40 (.619) the rest of the way, which was the third-best record in the NL behind the Braves and Dodgers.

Manager Rob Thomson has already started thinking about how the Phils can get off to a better start. The bet here is that it happens, and the NL East turns into a true race in 2024.