This is the Padres' best offense ... ever? Here's why
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This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ST. LOUIS -- I'll start with a caveat. Padres history isn't exactly littered with spectacular offenses. Organizationally, they're better known for their pitching.
Still, they've had a few good ones. The 1998 team was obviously loaded. From a purely offensive standpoint, the '96 and '97 teams might've been even better. From 2004-07, there were some solid lineups. And in 2022 the Padres did things offensively that they hadn't done before.
None of those teams were this good. It's a credit to Victor Rodriguez and the team's hitting staff. Rodriguez has thrived as hitting coach in a place where it often feels impossible to do so.
Here's why this Padres offense is the best in franchise history:
1. Pure hitting
We'll start with the raw numbers. There's an obvious reason the Padres never rank toward the top of the Majors in most offensive categories. They play their home games in one of the sport's most run-suppressing environments.
This year, the Padres are averaging 4.76 runs per game, their highest total in a full season since Petco Park opened in 2004.
The most telling stat is wRC+ -- an all-encompassing hitting metric that neutralizes factors like ballparks and league-wide trends. The Padres' 111 wRC+ means they've been, collectively, 11 percent better than league average.
In franchise history, the only time they were better came during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. And I'm inclined to give a bit more credence to what this group has done over 135 games than what that group did over 60.
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2. The at-bat quality
"This team," said Manny Machado, "is a grinding team. We don’t strike out much. We put the ball in play. We’re aggressive when we need to be aggressive. But you can’t throw it down the zone. Because we could do some damage on it, too."
Machado said that after Tuesday's victory, a game in which he and Jake Cronenworth each won a nine-pitch battle against an opposing Cardinals pitcher. The night before, Jackson Merrill had done the same.
The Padres have the lowest strikeout rate in the Majors and the highest batting average; the lowest swinging-strike rate and the highest contact rate.
I keep thinking one thing watching these Padres hitters take their at-bats: They must be miserable to play against. Last month, an exasperated Brandon Hyde, manager of the Orioles, more or less confirmed it.
"They’re throwing sand wedges out there," said Hyde, after his team salvaged the final game of a three-game set in Baltimore. "Those guys put the ball in play. That’s why they’re so tough to get out. Arraez, Profar, just go down the lineup. Unbelievable job battling with two strikes, unbelievable putting pressure on the defense. ... There’s something to be said for the way they compete and put the ball in play."
3. The lineup depth
As Hyde alluded to, that tenacity is not a trait limited to one or two Padres. They have nine players who have taken at least 200 plate appearances that have an OPS+ above league average (meaning above 100). That doesn't include Xander Bogaerts (91), who has been excellent since returning from injury, and Ha-Seong Kim (98).
"The strength of the lineup is the depth of the lineup," said manager Mike Shildt. "There's no out for a pitcher. There's no place where he can feel like he's got a real let-up or a breather."
Only the Diamondbacks have an offense with as many players who sport an OPS+ above 100.
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4. Situational ball
Any breakdown of this offense would be incomplete if it looked exclusively at the numbers.
Because of the regular contact they make and the types of hitters they employ, the Padres always had the potential to excel situationally. It doesn't always work so smoothly.
But with these Padres, it has. They know when to power up. They know when to swing for contact. Heck, they know when to take a strike right down the middle. Profar's plate appearance on Tuesday was the perfect example. He took a strike, even though it meant he'd be falling behind in the count, 0-2, because he noticed a double steal in the works. Then, with runners on second and third, he hit a fly ball to deep center.
"Easy RBI," Profar said.
"This team just knows how to step back and acknowledge what the game presents," Machado said.
It extends to the basepaths, too. The Padres -- particularly with Kim and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the IL -- are not a fast team by any stretch. But they've been a net positive (+3) in Statcast's runner runs.
"It's an offensive machine," Shildt said. "Every run outside of a homer has to come through some form of baserunning. The better the baserunning, clearly, the better the opportunities you're going to create. I like that we run the bases really aggressively but also intelligently.
"If you want to be a good offensive team, you've got to be a good baserunning team. Which we are."
Indeed, the Padres are a complete offensive machine right now.
The best in franchise history, to be exact.