How can Mets capitalize on series vs. Cards?

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Mets are about to meet their match.

When MLB.com released its Opening Day Power Rankings back in March, the Mets and Cardinals ranked fifth and 10th, respectively. Heading into their three-game series at Citi Field this weekend, they hold the 21st- and 28th-best records in the Majors.

What happened?

Those who follow the Mets closely know precisely what’s gone wrong in New York: Aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have largely struggled, as has much of the rest of the pitching staff. Francisco Lindor hasn’t been productive, Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz are hurt, and so on and so forth. To New Yorkers, it’s old news.

But what to make of the Cardinals, who have actually been worse -- much worse -- than the Mets? And how can a Mets team that’s been tormented by St. Louis in the past take advantage? I checked in with my St. Louis colleague John Denton to see if the Cardinals’ problems run even deeper than those of their longtime rivals.

DiComo: What have been the major issues in St. Louis?

Denton: It has been a moving target for the Cards. When they hit, they don’t pitch, and vice versa. The bullpen has blown double-digit games. The pitching was spotty, but better since demoting former Met Steven Matz to the bullpen. He dropped to 0-7 with Wednesday’s loss. The Cardinals lead the league with 17 one-run losses. In most of them, they led and found ways to lose the games. They have won the past two Rawlings team Gold Glove Awards, but they have really fallen back defensively. It’s even happened to Nolan Arenado, the winner of the last 10 Gold Gloves at third.

DiComo: The Mets actually sport a worse run differential than the Cardinals, despite having won five more games. Do you think St. Louis’ rash of one-run losses is more the product of bad luck or a bad bullpen, or some combination therein?

Denton: Definitely a product of poor play. They are pressing, and the bullpen is wildly inconsistent.

DiComo: In New York, many believe the Mets can improve if their star players -- Scherzer, Verlander, Lindor -- get back to the way they’ve produced in the past. But it feels like the Cardinals’ stars (Paul Goldschmidt, Arenado) have been fine, at least offensively. So how can St. Louis fix things?

Denton: There has been regression from Goldschmidt and Arenado. They’ve been good, but not great -- especially with runners in scoring position. The Willson Contreras signing has backfired in multiple ways. He has three hits in his last 11 games. The team foolishly moved Jordan Walker to Triple-A to alleviate the outfield logjam. The only thing giving them hope is that they are in the horrendous NL Central. They bottomed out at 10-24, won 10 of 13, and now have lost 10 of 12.