Revisiting 3 preseason predictions for Braves

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

With the Braves having secured home-field advantage through the World Series, this seems to be a good time to go back and see just how accurate I was with the three preseason predictions I published in the newsletter you received on Opening Day.

With some assistance from Austin Riley or Marcell Ozuna, I could end up going 3-for-3 with this year’s predictions.

Here’s a look at what I wrote when I made these predictions:

1. 40-40-40
Prediction: Three of the 27 players who have hit at least 38 homers in a season going back to 2019 will fill the top three spots in the Braves’ lineup. I’m predicting that each of these three players -- Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Riley -- will hit 40 homers this year. Ridiculous prediction? Maybe. But it has been done a grand total of three times in MLB history. So yeah, I’m saying there’s a chance.

The first was Hank Aaron, Davey Johnson and Darrell Evans of the 1973 Braves. The Rockies had a trio do it in both 1996 (Ellis Burks, Vinny Castilla, Andrés Galarraga) and 1997 (Galarraga, Castilla and Larry Walker).

Update: Olson leads the Majors with a franchise-record 54 homers and Acuña has gone deep 41 times. Riley and Ozuna both sit at 37 homers with three games remaining. Though there's still a chance, it looks like this prediction might come up just short. On the other hand, it’s not wise to doubt the power of a team that needs just four home runs to break the MLB single-season record.

2. 40-40
Prediction: Considering we have seen a player tally 40 homers and 40 stolen bases in the same season just four times, I shouldn’t feel as confident as I do in predicting Acuña will become the fifth member of the 40-40 club this year. Now that he is another season removed from a torn right ACL, it’s harder to confidently say he has any limitations.

Acuña finished three stolen bases shy of the 40-40 club in 2019, his most recent 162-game season not affected by the major knee injury. The Braves right fielder hit 41 homers in 2019, he had a 40-plus homer pace during the shortened 2020 COVID-19 season, and again in 2021 before he got hurt two days before the All-Star break. With the game’s rule changes enticing more stolen base attempts, I do feel confident with this prediction.

Update: Predicting 40-40 was easy. Predicting 40-70 would have been masterful. Everything about Acuña’s season has been masterful. It’s incredible to think he will have at least 24 more steals than anybody else has ever had during a 40-homer season.

3. 100 again
Prediction: To commemorate the 20th anniversary of the most recent time they tallied back-to-back 100-win seasons, the Braves are going to do it again. Last year’s 101-win team was great. This year’s club might be even better. Eddie Rosario looks like his 2021 postseason self, and the pitching staff is stacked, especially once closer Raisel Iglesias and 20-game winner Kyle Wright join the mix. The NL East is loaded again, but this Braves team has a chance to be one of the best in franchise history.

Update: Had I known Max Fried and Wright were going to combine to make 21 starts, I wouldn’t have made this prediction. But even with two of their top starters spending more than half the season on the injured list, the Braves proved to be even better than expected. This year’s 103-win bunch does seem to be the best team in franchise history.