Examining the Braves' back-of-rotation options

NORTH PORT, Fla. -- Reynaldo López and Bryce Elder will draw a lot of attention as they spend the next month battling for the fifth spot in the Braves’ rotation. But there’s plenty of reason to also monitor the progress of AJ Smith-Shawver, Darius Vines and the other pitchers who will inevitably fill Atlanta’s starting rotation this year.

“We’re going to need all of them,” is the go-to response Braves manager Brian Snitker uses whenever asked about preseason rotation plans. The phrase might be generic, but it’s also filled with truth.

The Braves had 16 pitchers make at least one start last season. If that seems odd for a team that produced an MLB-high 104 wins, the 100-win Dodgers and 99-win Rays both used 17 starters during the regular season.

“When we leave here, we want to have a pretty good idea we have a cache of [starters] here and in Triple-A,” Snitker said. “We’re going to need them and you want to feel good about all of them when we break [camp].”

The base of the Braves’ rotation currently consists of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale. With the Braves set to open their Grapefruit League schedule against the Rays on Saturday afternoon in Port Charlotte, here is a look at the other rotation candidates.

LÓPEZ: Though this hard-throwing right-hander has experienced most of his success as a reliever, it feels like he might be the early favorite to begin the season as Atlanta’s fifth starter. But how long he would remain a starter remains to be seen. He hasn’t thrown more than 66 innings in any of the past four seasons.

So, to ensure both pitchers are still available for any role once the postseason arrives, the Braves will need to manage the workloads of both López and Sale, who hasn’t completed more than 102 2/3 innings during any of the past four seasons.

López posted a 4.64 ERA over the 65 starts he made for the White Sox from 2018-19. He struggled during the COVID-shortened 2020 season and after beginning the next season at Triple-A, he ended 2021 as a reliever and has since excelled in that role.

There’s no doubt López could end up in Atlanta’s bullpen at some point, but the Braves believe with added experience, better game planning and a better defense behind him, he might be better than he was as a mid-4.00 ERA starter from 2018-19. His potential value as a productive innings eater could lead the Braves to decide it's best to use him as a starter at the start of the year, instead of trying to build his endurance to convert to a starter’s role during the season.

ELDER: This right-hander earned an All-Star selection as he constructed a 2.45 ERA through his first 17 starts last year. He then fatigued as he posted a 5.26 ERA over his final 10 starts of the season. Even if he doesn’t fit in the Braves’ rotation to start the season, he could make a big impact like he did last year, when he earned the rare distinction of being both an All-Star and a Triple-A Opening Day starter in the same year.

SMITH-SHAWVER: It didn’t take long for this top prospect to realize the Braves’ willingness to fast-track their top young players. He began last season in High-A and found himself in the Majors by the end of May. He made five regular-season starts and gained even more valuable experience while pitching in front of the Phillies’ raucous fans during the National League Division Series.

“I've seen a lot of improvement,” Snitker said. “He’s better understanding himself, the delivery, the whole thing. You're just seeing the byproduct of a young kid that had a taste [of the Majors] last year at 20 years old. Now he’s had a winter to process things. What he did last year will do him well this year.”

Smith-Shawver has tremendous upside -- and could soon make himself a mainstay within Atlanta’s rotation -- but he could benefit from a little more time at the Triple-A level.

HURSTON WALDREP: The Braves’ first-round Draft pick from last summer could also benefit from more time in the Minors, but he and Smith-Shawver could both put themselves in the 2025 rotation plans.

OTHERS: Vines, Allan Winans and Dylan Dodd are among the other starters who will spend the next few weeks waiting for their respective chances to aid the rotation much like they did at different points last year. Ian Anderson could factor in the mix once he completes his Tommy John rehab over the next few months.