Sale, Kelenic headline Braves' offseason surprises

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If you had Chris Sale and Jarred Kelenic on your Braves offseason bingo card, then you must be Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos.

Even though history had taught us to anticipate at least one Anthopoulos offseason surprise, nobody was anticipating Kelenic and Sale would end up filling the Braves’ top offseason needs. There’s certainly some risk and uncertainty attached to both players.

But Atlanta didn’t dip into its prospect capital or take any long-term financial risks to gain a couple of high-ceiling players. As teams have been willing to take a decade-long risk to get top free agents the past two winters, Anthopoulos has skillfully strengthened his roster without potentially burdening the team’s long-term payroll projections.

Strengthening the bullpen has been one of Anthopoulos’ most valuable acts this offseason. After seeing his mighty offense silenced by the Phillies’ power arms during the National League Division Series, he has built his own fleet of hard-throwing relievers with the additions of Reynaldo López, Aaron Bummer and others.

But the two highlight moves of the offseason were the acquisition of Kelenic from the Mariners in December and last week’s acquisition of Sale from the Red Sox.

Anthopoulos added one more surprise on Thursday morning, when he gave Sale a two-year, $38 million deal. The southpaw will essentially be free this year because of the $17 million the Red Sox provided in the trade. But by committing a $22 million salary to Sale for 2025, the Braves are proving they truly believe he can stay healthy.

The Braves attempted to keep Aaron Nola from re-signing with the Phillies. They also had some level of interest in Sonny Gray. But their interest in trading for Dylan Cease was overblown and Anthopoulos has wisely stayed away from the long-term deals for most free agents, especially those of the starting pitching variety.

Anthopoulos isn’t averse to long-term deals. He was willing to take a chance on Nola, and his payroll includes a plethora of long-term commitments via the extensions given to his young stars. But if you’re going to take a risk, it seems much wiser to roll the dice on 20-year-olds (Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, etc.) than free agents who will spend a significant portion of their contract in their 30s.

Sale is certainly a risk, but the Braves believe he's worth a short-term gamble.

Injuries ended the dominance Sale displayed while finishing within the top six in balloting for the American League Cy Young Award for seven consecutive seasons (2012-18). The 34-year-old lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 and battled both a rib fracture and right wrist fracture during the 2022 season. He totaled just 11 starts from 2020-22.

Sale’s injury woes continued this past season as he spent time on the injured list with a stress reaction to his left scapula. He ended up posting a 4.30 ERA over 20 starts. He had a 3.92 ERA in the nine starts he made after he returned from the IL in August.

Sale is a short-term risk just like Josh Donaldson was in 2019.

The Braves were wise to sign Donaldson and even wiser not to double down on him. Now they can hope to get the same risk-reward value from Sale.

Anthopoulos said there are no plans to have Sale begin the season late, but he acknowledged the left-hander hasn’t thrown more than 102 2/3 innings in any of the past four seasons. So, if the 34-year-old left-hander is going to be a potential difference maker in October, the Braves will need to use some caution throughout the season.

Atlanta will use some of its starting pitching depth to create an extra day of rest whenever possible, and Sale might be limited to five innings during many of his early-season starts. Anthopoulos also mentioned the value of occasionally not throwing between starts.

This is a calculated risk that doesn’t jeopardize the club’s future monetarily or via prospects. There’s no guarantee it will work, but it’s easier to take a short-term gamble than one that could adversely affect the payroll for many years to come.